C-Man's December On the Pond

C-MAN

C-MAN

Pretty much a regular
Season: 2-0-1 +5u (carried over from previous thread)


Good start to the season. Have a couple I am eyeing up tomorrow night. Good spot for Jersey 1P and game. Tail end of H/A with the Habs. Jersey pretty much dominated play on Monday in Montreal (especially 1P) but came up short. Habs have Boston back at home waiting for them on Thursday - a game I'm sure the Habs are more interested in. Don't like Jersey's injury list and Habs are certainly playing well, but almost a must play on Jersey in this spot. Lean Phi/Det under and Phx/Cal over.
 
Tonight:

NJ 1P -115 - opted to go with the first period play - even though I like the spot for Jersey, Habs could easily pull another rabbit out if it is close in the third.
 
C-MAN said:
Tonight:

NJ 1P -115 - opted to go with the first period play - even though I like the spot for Jersey, Habs could easily pull another rabbit out if it is close in the third.
Click to expand...

Hello my friend....apologize for not being around much this season so far but time to capp and watch sports is very limited when on the road.
I did get a chance to see some of Jerseys game Mon and they looked a bit tired in the 3rd but overall I was very impressed with Jerseys play.Lots of effort. The Devils are playing their sixth game within thirteen days tonight. They looked tired late in the Montreal game.
I think ur right on playing the the 1st period.
I split my play up and went 1st, 2nd and small on game with a play on the under 5 -120...GO Devils

Good to see u doing well again this yr and I wish U the Best for the season

:shake:
 
Thanks fellas. Another factor is that NJ is horrible in SO's should the game get to OT- 4 shoot outs this year and not one goal - pretty ridiculous. Montreal is not great in that department, but better than Jersey. NJ knows this and will be pressing in OT.

Blood - I did not follow what happened to you on a personal front, but I hope you are well and it is always good to have you posting around here. I got you for a Pens game next time you get to the Burg.
 
Thinking about adding a parlay. As a -1.5 fav, Det is 3-17 (ouch!). As a +1.5 dog, Cal is 14-6 and NJ is 14-5. Phx has covered the puckline in its last two road contests...3 in a row is tough and Cal has not lost on the puck line as a home dog all season (could also be an emotional boost if Giordano plays)...and I already like NJ. A NJ/Cal PL parlay perhaps?
 
Been looking at this game all day. Gonna pull the trigger:

Cal +115 2u
Cal +1.5 -260 .5u
 
Season: 4-1-1 +5.5u

I was pissed when it looked like NJ was going to win after losing the 1P, but they held true to form in the SO. I forgot to list units for the NJ play, but it was 2u, which is my standard wager.
 
Some really good games tonight. Gonna focus on the Pit and Buff games. A couple interesting nuggets about the SJ/Pens matchup: SJ's best period for goal differential is 1P (GF: 1.41/GA: .52) and worst period is 3P (GF: .96/GA: .81). Conversely, Pens worst period is 1P (GF: .79/GA: .62), and best period is 3P (GF: 1.17 /GA: .79). For draw players, 4/6 meetings have gone to OT and another was a 1 goal game. The last 3 meetings in Pittsburgh went to OT. SJ is 8-1 in last 9 meetings, but 6 of those games were played in SJ. L3 at Pens, SJ is 2-1, and again all three games went to OT. Under is 5-1-2 L8 meetings.
 
Thanks Santa.

First play:

SJ/Pit under 5.5 -135 2u

Not going to over-analyze this game. I lean SJ as far as a side, but definitely prefer the total. I go to a lot of Pens home games and I love playing under when they matchup with a team like SJ. Both teams can score, but they also play good team defense and can limit scoring chances. If my instincts are correct this will be a hard nosed grind it out type game with good goal tending and strong team defense. Malkin out will help as he has been hot. Don't mind the recent h2h history trending towards under as well, but this is more about the style of hockey I think these 2 coaches want their teams to play versus top tier teams, especially from the other conference.
 
SJ has allowed 3rd least amount of goals in the West.
Pit has allowed 3rd least amount of goals in the East.
Pit vs West top 8 at home: Ana 3-1, Col 0-1
SJ vs East top 8 on road: Tor 4-2 (EN goal), Mon 2-0, Bos 1-2, Det 1-0
 
NYR 1P -150 2u


Rags are 5-5 L10. That's not great especially since they have been favored in many of those games. During that same span, however, they have only lost once in the first period. Pretty good. Sabres on the other hand are one of the worst first period teams in hockey (maybe the worst, but no time to check) averaging just 7 shots and .21 goals for in the opening frame - they are also giving up 1.18 GAA in the first period. The Sabres have been bad in all periods, but the first is their worst.
 
StL -165 (reg only) 1u
StL 3P -180 1u


tried to figure out best way to play this to reduce the juice a bit. Strength vs weakness - 3P best for StL (not surprisingly with their style) and worst for NYI. Take my chances NYI don't go to OT again. If they do, it is not likely to be in come from behind fashion - it will be them having an early lead and StL catching up late, which likely means a split.
 
Season 7-2-1 +6.8u

Some lucky bounces (and posts) in the Pens 1P gave me false hope. Did not deserve to win that bet the way the game was played. The Rags/StL plays were spot on though, and I'll take a winning night any day. On to tomorrow...
 
Ana +140 2u

square card tonight, but gonna roll with it. SJ off a blowout loss - great 1P team vs poor 1P team
 
Season 9-3-1 +9.4u

big card:

Buff +220 2u
Cal +155 2u
Fla +1.5 -240 1u
Cal/Edm ov 5.5 -110 2u
Ana/StL ov 5.5 +105 2u
Stl 3P -170 1.5u

Buff is bad, but they play well at Mon and coach has them playing hard. Throw out the records when Buff plays Mon and Tor. Price is too high for a Mon team coming off a big win against Bos with LAK on deck. Thought Buff played better in last meeting than final score indicated. That was definitely a came Buff could have won. Will take a chance at this price.

Det is banged up and tired. They are also 3-18 as a puck line fav this season. Fla is rested and wanting to make a statement against a top tier team on the front end of a h&h.

Have more thoughts and willing to discuss others if anyone interested, but too much typing for me right now.

Good luck all!!
 
I like the spot for BUF but boy they are bad BOL hope you nail it. I have been looking at the NYR/ NJD game and the PIT/BOS game if you any thoughts on either of those would love to hear them.
 
Chance - I'm not convinced the Rags are going to be able to win consistently and the price is pretty steep. Another rivalry type game so no play for me. I do like Rags 1P. Price is a little cheaper and they are 7-1-3 last 11 games 1P. I'm a pens fan so biased and no real feel there.
 
Pretty much what I figured. Game could have gone either way on side or total. Just hope Brooks is ok. Really a bush league ambush from Thornton.
 
SJ does not win at Minn. SJ playing off first b2b reg losses this season. A strong 1P team coming off blowing a lead at Car. Like SJ 1P, but lean Min game, the problem is that Min is not a good come from behind team. Of their 5 home losses, they lost the 1P in 4 of them, so cannot play both. Think I like Min better, but prob no play.

Rags continue their 1P dominance now 8-1-3 L12. Also like them full game off last nights loss. Hard to believe they gave up 2 goals in 3 shots in the 3P to Jersey. Definitely not the way they wanted to start off this long 9-game homestand. Prob play it both ways. Caps are 3-1 on the road vs the East but they have struggled at NY going 1-6 L7. They have 0 goals vs NY last 3 games overall.

Not a fan of Van yet. Van had long dominated this series until Col snapped their losing streak late last season. Van last home stand was a disaster(1-5), so I'm sure there is extra emphasis on this set of games, but they already got the first game and there are easier teams like Edm and Car yet to play. Like Col

Wanted to play Tor in this spot. Playoff revenge vs Bos coming in off playing Habs/Pit, but Leafs are giving up 40 shots/game, including 50 last 2 games. May look at over or Bos TT over depending on goalies.

Will play Chi a couple diff ways - expensive, but history tells us Fla does not often win 3 straight and Chi doesn't often lose 4 straight. Will play it small and take my chances.
 
Phi +120 2u
Parlay Phi +120/ov 5.5 +105 .5u (pays a hair over 1.75u)
Pitt TT ov 3.5 +145 1u
Ana TT ov 3.5 +120 1u

Hoping Phi can pull off the season sweep of Ott. Having watched both teams play recently (albeit both in losses), I was less impressed with Ott. Phi has won first two meetings by a combined score of 10-1 (based off memory without double checking) and I will pay to see a different outcome here with Phi in better form.

Hoping for a split of the TT plays, although like my chances with both plays at + money.
 
Thanks Cap. Jets outshoot Blues 8-2 in 1P and it ends up a push. Now 17-11-3 +11.7u on the season.
 
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They lost the last one chance and are slumping so I'm gonna just watch for now.

Mon -135 3u
Buf +170 1u
STL 3P -210 1u
NYI/Phx ov 5.5 -130 (thanks Bench) 2u
Parlay CBJ PL/Det PL 1u (pays even money)
 
Last edited:
Edm +180 2u

can't help myself with Van perfect on this home stand and Boston on deck tomorrow. Don't see how Van is not looking ahead and Edm has a nice W/L pattern going, with a W due.
 
Mon -140 3u
Min/Col un 5 -110 2u
Car/Phx 2P ov 1.5 -160 2u
Pit -105 2u
Pit/Det un 5.5 -130 1u
Chi -175 1u/Chi -1.5 +170 1u (will count as 1 play)
 
Phi 1P +120 2.5u
TB/Det un 5.5 -135 2u

Phi decent 1P team and owes Wash from 7-0 drubbing. 1P worst period for Wash.

Clown - not sure I understand the question?
 
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