C-Golds Week 4 Card... Fade the Diapers

[C-Gold]

Week 1 3-3-1 ATS, 0-0 ML, -4.75 units
Week 2 3-4-1 ATS, 0-1 ML, -6 units
Week 3 0-0-1 ATS, 1-0 ML, +3 units
Total 6-7-3 ATS, 1-1 ML, -7.75 units

Week 4

6 units on Indy -3/ NE -.5 teaser
2 units on NY Jets -3 ( bought the hook)
2 units on Green Bay -3 ( +110)

............................................................................................

I will probably go out of town tommorow, so I am trying to keep it light. I will fade the young and ineffective QBs like Trent Edwards, Reggie Ball/HoldCum, Cutler, with Carson mixed in there. I also found a good week to go with 2 horses ( NE and Indy). I might add some action on the Giants/Eagles sunday nighter too. I am technically having a "losing" season thus far, and I was hit hard by 2 big losses with the Eagles. If Philly didn't start out so bad, I would be up pretty good instead of down pretty good. My record doesn't look good, because of losses on a lot of smaller plays.

1st leg of Teaser - Indy -3
I will take the most efficient offense I have ever seen against the young quarterback in Jay Cutler. Now some people might like the matchup, with denver and their corners against the colts, but I can see Manning just lighting up Anthony Gonzalez and Dallas Clark underneath all day. He will take what the defense gives him.

On the other side of the ball, Cutler is still young and inexperienced, and as shitty as the colts defense is... they are better at home.

2nd leg of Teaser - Patriots -.5
Tom Brady and the Patriots should shred into the Bungles defense like a hot knife through butter. I was curious as to how the Patriots passing game would gel early in the year with all those new parts, and it has gelled in a big way. Now only should the Pats be able to throw all day, but they should be able to run all day as well. I'd be shocked if they scored less than 30 points, and that is even with the possibility of them trying to build a lead and then control the clock.

On the other side of the ball...
Carson meet Bill,
Bill meet Carson.

I think the Colts are an underrated home team ( they haven't lost at home in over 2 years and are considerably better at home), and the Patriots are an underrated road team ( weren't they 7-1 on the road last year plus the win in SD and they don't lose much focus by being on the road?) I also like the numbers... Winning by 3 shouldn't be a problem, and the Patriots are just to win. I like those guys to stay undefeated.

Jets -3
The Bills only have 2 offensive touchdowns on the year. JP Losman stinks, and he is injured. Trent Edwards is a later round pick in his first NFL start. The last 2 times these guys played, the Bills tried to just pound the Jets to the tune of 25-30 carries with Willis + A-Train. If they were going to keep it so simple with JP, they will certainly do that with Trent.

Not only that, but the Bills defense didn't figure to be good this year, and they have injury problems of their own.

This game is a fade of Buffalo as much as anything else. Pennington isn't my favorite NFL starting quarterback, but he is a veteran who has led his team to the playoffs, and he is popping Trent Edwards NFL cherry. I actually like Thomas Jones more than anything the Jets had last year. I think TJ is an underrated back that can get the job done.

Packers -3
I think Green Bays defense is underrated and the more I think about it, the more I see the Packers being that " sleeper team" and that I was wrong about. Their defense shut down Mcnabb and Eli ( who I still think is underrated), and they held LT and San Diego in check too.

Brett Favre might not be vintage Brett Favre, but he is still better than many of the starters in the league, including Tavaras " reggie ball" Jackson and Kelly HoldCum.

The Vikings defense is looking alright, but they are more vulnerable against the pass than the run. Green Bay is better at passing than running.

If you were to even say that both teams had equal defenses, Green Bay has the better offense. I like Adrian Peterson and all, but if Minny is going to average 160 passing yards per game, they are going to have problems.
.................................................................................................
Week 1 Recap
NO/Indy 2nd half over = Won 5 units ( fade Indy/NO Under)
Philly -2.5 @ GB = Lost 5.75 units ( faded GB)
Giants +6 @ Dallas = Lost 5 units ( faded dallas)
Pitt @ Browns +5 = Lost 2 units ( faded Pitt)
Carolina +1.5 @ St. Louis = Won 2 units ( faded STL)
Miami @ Washington = Push 2 units ( faded Miami)
Baltimore @ Cincy -3 = Won 1 unit ( faded Baltimore)
Total = 3-3-1 ATS ( Minus 4.75 units)

Week 2
Jacksonville -10 ( LOSS 1 unit) ( faded Atlanta)
Tennessee + 8.5 ( Win 2 units)Beted * Sucker bet ( faded Indy)
SF + 3 ( Win 2 units) ( faded StL)
Carolina -7 ( LOSS 3 units) ( faded Houston)
Det -3 ( Push 2 units) ( faded Minny)
Arizona + 3 ( Win 2 units) ( faded Seattle)
Chicago – 12.5 ( LOSS 1 unit) ( faded KC)
San Diego +4 ( Loss 1 unit) ( faded New England)
Philly ML ( Lost -6 units) ( faded Washington)
Week 2 3-4-1 ATS, 0-1 ML, -6 units

Week 3
Philly ML ( won a little over 3 units) ( faded detroit)
KC -3 ( Push 2 units) ( faded Minny)
Week 3 0-0-1 ATS, 1-0 ML, +3 units

 

[wheezy]

GL man, i like the teaser a lot

 

[C-Gold]

Those are 2 teams I would generally want to play, and this week it works out well with a 7 pointer.

NE just to win, and Indy -3. Good numbers, and the Pats are underrated on the road, and the colts are underrated at home. Their opponents are border line playoff teams that are good enough to keep the lines close, but bad enough that they should lose.

In general you don't want to tease past 0. You lose a point.

I generally like to tease 3 point dogs, to 10 point dogs etc., or 7.5 or 10 point favorites down to .5 or 3.

 

[wheezy]

who would you add to make it a 3pt teamer

 

[C-Gold]

10 pointers are tough...

winning is based on 3 events and not on 2
you are only getting an extra 3 points per pick
You want to stay with the rule to not cross 0
Plus one tie turns the whole " sweetheart" teaser into a push

A tie in a 2 teamer just lowers your winnings. I mean, the numbers work so well with this one, that I wouldn't add a third event. Like I said, the Broncos and Bengals aren't great teams by any stretch of the imagination, but they are good enough to lower the numbers. The good thing about a 2 teamer is that you only have 2 events, and you get an extra possession... you can't lose a FG game, or some of these other ones I have been losing ( winners that don't cover).

 

[SF_capper]

Like the picks, but don't you think GB would be the sucker bet this week? I mean who alive likes Minnesota in this spot against the hot Favre

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

like the card, c-gold...and agree that it's a tough week to find good plays.

 

[xflrejects]

Billick is so arrogant he cost his team ONE game very possibly in CIN and he almost made it two vs.NYJ...with his effin' abysmal play calling.

 

[Wikeman]

Good luck big guy.:cheers:

 

[PRECISEwon]

love the tease and the jets..GL C-gold

 

[C-Gold]

I think the Lions will beat the Bears too, but I am not laying money on the Detroit Lions.

Grease man should help the Bears offense NOT make huge mistakes, but the Bears defense is in shambles. If you are going to run that basic " cover 2" crap, then you better have supreme talent. ( like the stacked Tampa teams).

Losing Tommy Harris is the most devastating injury the Bears could take.

Then they go out and lose both starting corners who are very solid at their position, and their safety Mike Brown.

So basically their strengths now are Gerrlacker, Briggs, and Agunleye. They leave that defense real vulnerable, and especially on that flat surface in the dome in detroit.

The Lions may pass every down, but they CAN move the ball.

The lack of running game really hurts them in the redzone, when back 7's are crowded into that smaller territory to defend and the thread of the run is non-existant. That is why you see those dumb Kitna plays trying to fit balls into tight spots.

I think the Lions will be able to move the ball along the field, but the redzone will be more chalenging.

Mcnabb tore up the Lions last week because of his excellent READS. The Lions were playing zone, and he picked them apart like a video game... That is the west coast offense with a smart quarterback. People don't understand the West Coast offense. The West coast offense against a Zone defense will ALWAYS have somebody open.... It is just a matter of finding that open guy. Mcnabb is smart enough to do that.

I was watching the Colts/Houston game last night, and Solman Wilcots is dumber than bricks. He keeps talking about how " open the colt receivers are". He makes it sound like Peyton Manning has some huge advantage with the receviers he has. The reason why Mannings receivers are so open, is because he " chooses" to throw to the right one, and he has good timing.

Throwing pretty balls is NOT the main function of a quarterback... It is CHOOSING the right guys to throw it too. Manning, Brady, and Mcnabb are 3 of the best at the " Passing game", but you don't really associate those guys with the " best arm" or " prettiest ball". Maybe Manning, but Brady dosn't have a strong arm, and Mcnabbs accuracey can sometimes be shakey.

So Soloman acts like " anybody could be successful as the Colts QB". Then he does say a Jaguars game and talks about how David Garrard " doesn't have any receivers".

... maybe he just doesn't throw to the RIGHT guys.



Anyways... Now your asking Greasy and probably a limited playbook to beat the Lions. I am not saying the Lions are good, but having a less capable quarterback will severly hamper that offense.

I don't think the Lions are some great team, but they caught the Bears the right time after the injury bug.

I also have 1 more play that I will release tommorow. I want to see how the games turn out before I release my last pick.

 

[chancedog]

BOL C-gold

 

[C-Gold]

I am glad the public doesn't like the Packers as much as they did earlier in the week. ( Maybe the news about Favre missing practice ?)

There are a lot of freaking home dogs this week, and I am against a few of them. I still like the Jets and the Pack ( fading Barfalo and Miniture), I think that the Lions and Falcons are the dogs that are more likely to roar.

However, they are still the Lions and the Falcons.


I think I changed my mind... I think I am going to take Seattle at 4:05 against an overrated 49ers team and I still have a prime time play...

 

[C-Gold]

Listening to my Tiesto, about to go crush some weights.. come back and watch some mother fucking football.

Fuck yeah, it is sunday and I am going to make some mother fucking money!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[EDizzle]

I like Seattle also, San Fran is still pretending.

MAKE THAT DOLLA!!!!

 

[C-Gold]

San Fran is an over hyped team right now with a non-existant offense. They play Herman Edwards conservative football, and if you stack guys in the box and shut down Gore, Alex Smith still can't beat you with his arm right now.

Alex Smith is still an NFL baby, and I will fade those mother-fuckin diapers like the title of the thread says.

I'm still not 100 percent sold on the 49ers defense yet. They have some decent LBs, but I want to see it all come together first. I am not sold on Mike Nolan at all.

Who the hell is alex smith going to pass to? Vernon Davis is out, and his receivers aren't in sync with him yet. If I were seattle I would watch for them to play that boring horizontal offense the redskins run. Smith will drop back and try and throw a bunch of swing passes to Gore.

I understand the 49ers are a much better team on grass at home, but Seattle needs to win, and have a better QB, Coach, and probably defense. They want to get that respect over that yuppie 49er team.

I like some of the 49ers young LBS, but you have to like Seattles as well. Lofa is a young and more athletic Zack Thomas/Antionio Pierce type player. Julian Peterson is one of those hybrid freaks.

I want to see how the 1pm-ers go, but I think Seattle is play worthy.

So C some motherfuckin gold

 

[C-Gold]

If an NFL team is going to run the boring, consertaive Herman Edwards/Martyball/Jason Campbell offense, you better have a good defense to shut down your opponenets.

People wonder why the Giants came back last week.... because Eli is a good quarterback, while Jason Campbell was throwing every single pass to his running backs.

Now I am not against a guy looking downfield... looking downfiend... nothing is open, you hit your checkdown

but Jason Campbell did the old Byron Fatwhich, where he takes the snap, drops back 5-7 steps and then immediatly turns to his right, and throws a swing pass to his running back.

Any fucking highschool quarterback could do that. It doesn't require any intelligence, accuracey, or arm power. Those " passing yards" shouldn't even fucking count for the quarterback.

Jason Campbell completed 1 pass to a wide receiver in the first half... He didn't complete his 2nd pass to a wide receiver until midway through the 4th quarter when the Giants were in Prevent defense.

Don't fucking tell me how much "potential" Jason Campbell has.

I saw Alex Smith throw some last year, but so far he is in that boring, conservative, " training wheels" offense. If he throws a 1 yard pass to Frank Gore who breaks a couple of tackles and picks up 15 yards, then why should A.Smith be credited with a 15 yard pass?


People love to bash on an Eli who is running a " real offense" and will occasionally make mistakes, but then they love the Jason MM MMM bad campbell who is running the dummy offense.

Look, I think Rex Grossman sucks, but at least his coach let him " sink or swim", instead of running that martyball offense until 1 day you realize the guy sucks.

I think Leinart shows more potential than Smith.

 

[Handykapt]

GL "C", much like yesterdays college ball, I think this is going to be one of those days!

 

[mvp13]

dam straight the doggs will be barking loudly today

love minny

c gold have you lost your touch

ruff ruff get on them gl buddy :smiley_acbe:

 

[C-Gold]

dam straight the doggs will be barking loudly today

love minny

c gold have you lost your touch

ruff ruff get on them gl buddy :smiley_acbe:

:cheers:

 

[C-Gold]

1PM Watch
Packers vs vikings
Jets @ Bills
1PM DVR
Rams @ Dallas
Faders @ Miami
4PM watch
Broncos @ Indy
Seattle @ San Fran
4pm DVR
Steelers @ Zona
Chiefs @ Chargers

 

[C-Gold]

Added -
Seattle "pick em" (bet ed) 2 units

My other play is posted elsewhere, and I will post it here later.

 

[spanishshark]

Good Luck C-Gold. I likem :cheers:

 

[Popcorn Light]

:cheers:

 

[C-Gold]

Jets = Loss 2 units
Packers = Win a little over 2 units
Seattle = win 2 units
Colts = win for the 1st leg of the teaser ( for 6 units)

I should have NOT kept it simple stupid and taken the Lions, Falcons, and Cardinals. Oh well, be happy when you win.

Added- 1 unit on the Philadelphia Eagles -2.5. If I were down, I would play it more, but I would rather preserve what looks to be a winning weekend.

 

[luvthemcowboys]

are you going to hedge with cinn ml

 

[C-Gold]

Jets = 2 unit loss
Packers = 2 unit win
Seattle = 2 unit win
Filthadelphia = 1 unit loss
Colts/Patriots teaser = 6 unit win
Week 4 = +7 units


I had a good week and am now back on track. I still feel like that early hole I dug in week 1 hurt me because I had to "kiss" and miss out on gains. I wanted to play more dogs this week, like Detroit, Atlanta, and arizona, but I just wanted to " win".

Also, if I was up and playing with house money, I probably would have just taken Indy and NE ATS and made extra money.

Oh well, be happy when you make money... there is always next week.

Congrats to all where were along for the ride.

 

[C-Gold]

I am going out of town to take care of some business this weekend in New York. I might be at the Jersey Shore as well, so I might not be able to get all my plays in.

but your bookie took it in the ass last weekend, and I intend on keeping my foot right there.