C-Gold, Week 1 NFL Card

  • Thread starter Thread starter C-Gold
  • Start date Start date
C

C-Gold

Guest
Week 1

NO/Indy 2<SUP>nd</SUP> half over 24.5 (Beted)( 5 units) ( won)
<O:p</O:p
Philly -2.5 ( 5.75 units at beted)
<O:p</O:p
Philly has won the last 6 meetings since 2002
I wouldn’t usually put too much significance into that, but these games were Mcnabb vs Favre for what it is worth.
<O:p</O:p
Last time they played in Green Bay</ST1:p was 02’ ( the other 5 games were in Philly)
Donovan completed less than 50% of his passes
- Fred ex Mitchell and Todd Stinkston were his leading targets with 3 catches a piece
- Favre was helped by Ahman Greens 192 yards rushing
- and the Eagles still won by 3 despite the poor performance
<O:p</O:p
In the 5 games in Philly, Mcnabb had a 5 TD game vs GB, a 100+ yard rushing game, and a 400 + yard passing game mixed in there. The GB defense is being rebuilt, but Mcnabb is an MVP candidate this year and will be the best QB in the NFC.
<O:p</O:p
Last year these teams played in Philly and the Eagles won 31-9. Favre had 2 picks and 0 touchdowns. We all remember the visuals of him just lobbing up a ball to Brian Dawkns in the playoffs.
<O:p</O:p
- The Eagles run D hasn’t been spectacular, but the Green Bay</ST1:p team they are facing is not only starting a rookie running back, but a rookie running back coming off a concussion injury. I have Brandon Jackson on my fantasy team ( when you can get a starting running back in a west coast offense in the 15<SUP>th</SUP> round, you do it), but this is a tough start for him.
<O:p</O:p
- I’d expect that defense to come after Favre. They basically have a 2 unit hockey rotation of a D-Line. They can blitz and substitute, to keep the pressure on Favre all day. Not only that, but Favre targets a huge percentage of his passes to Donald Driver. If the defense knows where the quarterback wants to throw it, they have a huge advantage when mixing up their coverages.
<O:p</O:p
When trying to pick an upset proof team, you want to look at how the turnover battle is going to go. Donovan has been very efficient thus far in his career as far as throwing interceptions goes. It is much more likely that Favre will be throwing picks when facing the Philly blitz, then Donovan against Green Bay</ST1:p. It is also more likely that Brandon Jackson, a rookie coming off a concussion injury will be fumbling in his first NFL start over Pro Bowl Brian Westbrook.
<O:p</O:p
This road game won’t be easy for Philly. More of the public is on Philly and I generally like fading the public, but the public doesn’t always lose. I think this line is at -3, because the packers were 8-8 last year and only a couple games back of Philly. However, the Packers were a 4-8 team until they picked up 4 cheap wins at the end of their season to look a respectable 8-8. I believe Philly turns the corner this year and marches on through the NFC and it all starts in week 1.
<O:p</O:p
<O:p</O:p
<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
><st1:City w:st=
<ST1
><st1:City w:st=
<ST1
><st1:City w:st=
<ST1
><st1:State w:st=
<ST1:pNew York</ST1:p</st1:State> Giants +6 ( 5 units at Beted)
<O:p</O:p
Eli Manning is 3-2 against <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1:pDallas</ST1:p</st1:City>
The Giants beat <st1:City w:st="on">Dallas</st1:City> in <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1:pDallas</ST1:p</st1:City> last year while at full strength
The Giants lost to <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1:pDallas</ST1:p</st1:City> last year by 3 during their stretch of massive injuries.
<O:p</O:p
<st1:City w:st="on"><ST1:pDallas</ST1:p</st1:City> lost their hall of fame coach, and the Giants replaced their pro bowl running back with the best backup in the league, yet the spread is at 6?
<O:p</O:p
This is good value with the Giants on a team that has a pretty good shot to win the game. The line should really be more like <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1:pDallas</ST1:p</st1:City> -3, but the Giants are getting an additional 3 points added. I think the Giants will be a surprising team this year and exceed the low expectations the media has set for them.
<O:p</O:p
- Eli has thrown 48 touchdown passes in his first 2 years as a starter
- He’s won the division
- He’s had his team as the 3<SUP>rd</SUP> playoff team in the division, despite the hardest schedule in the league last year
<O:p</O:p
Despite the Giants having intrinsic value with their 6 point spread, more of the public is still on D<ST1:p<st1:City w:st="on">allas</st1:City></ST1:p. Not only do I like fading the public, but I really like fading the public on nationally televised games. The public uses a Sunday or Monday night game as “ the ultimate chaser” on the money they lost on Sunday at 1PM and 4PM.
<O:p</O:p
I have a lot of situations I really like.
- Undervalued Giants value at +6
- Fading the public
- Fading the public on a nationally televised game
- <st1:City w:st="on">Dallas</st1:City> losing their <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1:pHOF</ST1:p</st1:City> coach, and they are breaking in a new coach
- Giants should at least be competitive ( they won in Dallas last year), they have a good shot at winning outright, never mind covering +6.
<O:p</O:p
Also, the <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1:pDallas</ST1:p</st1:City> passing game has three main threats…
TO at WR
Glenn at WR
And <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1:pWitten</ST1:p</st1:City> at TE
<O:p</O:p
Terry Glenn is a very underrated receiver (due to his age), and he is out with injury. The biggest worry for the Giants is Jason Witten at tight end, because Antionio Pierce isn’t athletic enough to defend him. I’d hope the Giants use safety help, or bring somebody else in to defend him on 3<SUP>rd</SUP> and long situations. <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1:pDallas</ST1:p</st1:City> really went after this match up in the 2<SUP>nd</SUP> game in NY last year. They went after <ST1:p<st1:City w:st="on">Witten</st1:City></ST1:p early and in crunch time, when he had the back breaking play to lead to dramatic Martin Gramatica field goal.
<O:p</O:p
I really think the Giants pull the upset here on Sunday night ( the dog on the nationally televised game), but even if they don’t win, all they have to do is cover 6, and they should certainly do that.
<O:p</O:p
<O:p</O:p
Sucker bet/ fools gold<O:p</O:p
<O:p</O:p
<st1:City w:st="on"><ST1:pCleveland</ST1:p</st1:City> +5 ( Bodog)( 2 units)
The Steelers have owned the Browns for the last 7 straight games. Last year in Cleveland, the Steelers only won by 4 with the Browns using Jason White at Running back, and a young Charlie Frye at QB. In fact, the Steelers had to score 21 4<SUP>th</SUP> quarter points to win, and it was a sucker bet last year. I think that was the game where if Braylon Edwards caught a ball in the end zone, the Brownies would have won.
<O:p</O:p
The public is all over the Steelers in this one at over 75%. Last year the Steelers were 3-5 on the road and they were a considerably better home team. The Browns have both their quarterback and head coach on the hot seat. Jamal Lewis is an upgrade at running back, and this sounds crazy, but I think Brady Quinn brings new life to this Browns franchise ( even if he is on the bench). The Browns O-Line should be better due to health and the same with their defense. I’d expect the Browns to go out there and fight hard against a division rival, in a new season with new expectations when everybody is still 0-0. The Browns may not win this game, but they will fight and keep it close.<O:p</O:p
<O:p</O:p
<st1:State w:st="on"><ST1:pWashington</ST1:p</st1:State> -3 ( 2 units)
<O:p</O:p
I don’t have that much statistical backing, but I just think <st1:State w:st="on"><ST1:pWashington</ST1:p</st1:State> is going to win this game. Both teams match up strength against strength and weakness against weakness. The Dolphins O-Line sucks, while the Redskins D-Line sucks. The Redskins O-Line is good, while the Fins have a very formidable front 7. The Dolphins were a terrible 2-6 on the road last year, while <ST1:p<st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State></ST1:p was better at home.
<O:p</O:p
The Fins must also deal with a new coach, and QB, and Trent Green will be coming back to <st1:State w:st="on"><ST1:pWashington</ST1:p</st1:State>. Fed Ex field will be loud, and the Redskins front runner fans will be talking their trash at work on Monday after the win. Those same dorky Redskins fans will get a dose of Reality next weekend when they lose to Philly.
<O:p</O:p
<O:p</O:p
<st1:City w:st="on"><ST1:pCarolina</ST1:p</st1:City> +1.5 ( 2 units)
<O:p</O:p
<st1:City w:st="on"><ST1:pSt. Louis</ST1:p</st1:City> seems to be the public play here. Everybody wants Bulger, SJack, and Holt on their fantasy team, but the NFL is more than fantasy football. <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1:pCarolina</ST1:p</st1:City> has beaten the Rams 3 times in a row, and the Rams offense will have to face the arguably the best D-Line in football. Grass surfaces have been known to throw the Rams “finesse” offense out of sync, but I think <ST1:p<st1:City w:st="on">Carolina </st1:City></ST1:pcan do that with their horses up front. The Rams have started to pound the ball more with <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1:pJackson</ST1:p</st1:City> last year, but I think the Panther linebackers will be better this year with those boys from the U.
<O:p</O:p
On the other side of the ball, the Panther offense ditched their bum coach (Dan Henning) calling the plays. Their duel running backs will be facing a weak Rams D, and Steve Smith will be covered ( or left open) by Tyrone Hill.
<O:p</O:p
Do I like the Rams offense… of course, especially at home
Do I like the Rams defense, certainly not.
<O:p</O:p
It’s not which offense is better and will therefore score more points, you have to understand it is the Rams offense versus the <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1:pCarolina</ST1:p</st1:City> D, and the Panthers offense against the weak Rams D. I just see the Panthers as a more balanced team. The Panthers also have been known to thrive in the underdog role. Delhomme might not be a stud, but he can win on the road.
<O:p</O:p
<O:p</O:p
Week 1 card
NO/Indy 2<SUP>nd</SUP> half over 24.5 ( 5 units)---------> WON
Philly -2.5 ( 5.75 units)
Giants +6 ( 5 units)
Cleveland +5 ( 2 units) sucker bet special
<st1:City w:st="on"><ST1:pCarolina</ST1:p</st1:City> +1.5 ( 2 units)
<ST1:p<st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State></ST1:p -3 ( 2 units)
<O:p</O:p
Pending Futures
Philly 36/1 to win Super Bowl
Patriots 12/1 and 10/1 to win Super Bowl


Good Luck to all, and happy opening day weekend.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I agree with all your plays except Carolina. I think their defense is overrated, especially the secondary. Their CBs are decent, but they'll be starting two new safeties. Chris Harris (backup for the Bears) and Deke Cooper (journeyman, only played in 1 game last year for San Fran). I think that'll be the difference, playing indoors. I just hope Holt is his usual self with the injury this preseason. BOL
 
definitely on the G-Men.... I think we've been harping on that play long enough... now it's time to watch Eli do some answering for us on the field.
 
Good one on Browns, CG.

Public peeps are all over Steelers laying 4.....was 4.5. Vegas may fuck over the public on this one.
 
claycourtlesson said:
Good one on Browns, CG.

Public peeps are all over Steelers laying 4.....was 4.5. Vegas may fuck over the public on this one.
Click to expand...

agree on his reasoming..no play for me..but NFL is square as fuck like ncaa in septemeber..at least first few weeks...

public faders(that do it for living)..always get crushed early on then go on a huge run midseason
 
Damn son, best I got for the Eagles is -3 -105. Thats fine though. I think the Eagles rout.

Like the Giants too. If the fucking game was at the Meadowlands, how could it not be Giants -3? But in Dallas -6???

Don't agree with Carolina though. I have the Rams at a PK and I feel good. I don't see the Panthers stopping them. Take the already potent offense of the last few years and add Drew Bennett who questionably could be a #1 receiver on some teams, Randy McMichael an absolute animal, and that fullback from Rutgers making his mark on the running game(Leonard I think his name is), and the Rams are poised to score some points. I know you can't gauge too much from preseason, but the Panthers(with the exception of Delhomme at times) have looked awful and sloppy. I remember laughing at Fox's face after about the 5th dropped pass one game, and a few secinds later I got a text from a buddy that looked like this. LMAO. U SEE FOX'S FACE. ONLY PRESEASON IS DISGUISING THE AWFULNESS OF THIS TEAM. He was right. I do agree that the Rams defense is not so hot, but at a PK, I'm not too worried. The way I look at it is this isn't the first or last time I will be betting money on a team with a subpar defense.

Either way bro, win some money this weekend.
 
Brewer- I am not as much of a totals guy, but I'd probably lean over with the Giants on the road able to score points.

Blitz- I am glad to have a capper with your talents on my side, it makes me feel better of how strongly ( we both) see the Giants in this game. Especially since the public hates the Giants, as the media has been spoon feeding them that the Giants are a 6-10 team. They always talk about how " the players don't like the coach". That is fine, but didn't they hate the coach last year and 2 years ago when they made the playoffs?

Clay/Bar- In general I like fading the public, but the public doesn't lose everything. A lot of people are on the Eagles ( and I think they win), a lot of people are on the Steelers ( and I think they lose).

Glyde- Once again it is great to see another strong capper with us on the Giants. The Eagles -2.5 was from Beted.com For some reason they hate the Eagles, and they even had the Giants at +6.5 at one point, but I didn't deposit money on time to get that favorable line. Their lines are just flat out wack sometimes.

The thing with Carolina, I understand the Rams offense is good, they were good last year, and now you add a TE and another sure handed wide out. They are also playing in their natural enviornment. The Rams should score their points, but Carolina should be fine on offense too.

- Does Steve Smith vs Tyrone Hill scare you?
- I believe Carolina has won the last 3 matchups ( with many of the same players). I believe Deangelo Williams ran for 150 yards against those rams in their last appearance. Sure, I like SJack and he is better than Williams/Foster but he is facing a better defense.
- Then you have to look at turnovers, the Panthers 3 studs on the DL can force a fumble, or pressure Bulger into bad throws.
- The public likes the Rams as they all have those guys on their fantasy teams, but the NFL is more than just fantasy football.
 
So...
- Brandon Jackson will start his first NFL game and play hurt...
- Back up RB probably won't play
- Donald Driver is will play hurt
- Greg Jennings is 50/50 on playing
- Spitz the guard is probable
They are really surrounding Brett Favre with some wonderful skilled position players. A Hurt rookie RB, and two injured receivers. Not to mention that his tight end isn't much of a pass catching threat. Those young guys on the line better get their shit straight to block that hockey rotation Philly runs.

Dallas
- Terry Glenn is out
- Terrance Newman their stud corner is 50/50
- Greg Ellis is out
 
I got to agree with public taking Philly. GB o-line is the worst run blocking outfit in the NFL, and that will get exposed early in season until the unit gells.

I used to think Carolina was the worst run-blocking o-line, now it's GB.

GB's defense could keep them in the game until the 4Q, then Philly should be able to blow open the cover in the last 5-10 minutes and win like 24-14ish.

We shall see.
 
i absolutley love your fools gold pick as i expect the browns to keep it close if not win outright. This is a different browns team than we saw last year, the only thing that worries me is the chemistry of the Offensive line as their starting unit didn't play together since training camp and ryan tucker is out the first 4 games.

GL C gold with you.
 
Browns ML is probably worth a shot.

Think about how many public peeps have teased all kinds of college football and NFL to Steelers +points?

I can hear it now......KABOOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
C-GOLD

WHATS UP BUDDY
IM SO HAPPY YOU ARE HERE POSTING I HAVE ALOT OF RESPECT FOR YOU AND THE WAY YOU CAP GAMES

I LOVE ALL OF THE PLAYS ESPECIALLY THE SUCKER BET

HOPE WE BOTH MAKE MONEY THIS WEEK ALONG WITH EVERYONE ELSE:tiphat:
 
C-Gold said:
They always talk about how " the players don't like the coach". That is fine, but didn't they hate the coach last year and 2 years ago when they made the playoffs?
Click to expand...


exactly. I aint too fond of the coach myself, but that doesn't make him a bad coach. If the talent is there, which I think it is, then Coughlin is plenty good enough to get the job done... and least to help guide them into the playoffs anyway.
 
Clay- I used to think Carolinas O-Line was right down there with the Raiders, Tampa, Miami etc., but the new offensive coordinator and Ryan Kalil should help. Also facing the porous defense should help, even with the shit line, Deangelo Williams run wild on the rams in the last meeting to the tune of nearly 150 yards.

Green Bay has a rebuilt defense, but the Eagles are still a top 5 offense in the league IMO.

Frank- I agree the Browns will be "different". I think they will bring a lot of energy against the hated division rival here. The ML probably is worth a shot, because it would destroy a number of teasers if it happened. I bet on the Browns not for the " cover", but because they are a live dog at home that really could win the game.

3Wiggler- Buffalo could win as the Home Dog, but at this point I don't want to lay my hard earned money on JP LOSE MAN

MVP13- With that Eagles aviator, it doesn't suprise me that you " Like" the plays... especially the Eagles.

Blitz- The Medias hatred for Coughlin and Eli is just irrational.

Warren Buffet is the 2nd richest man in the world due to his investing. He is a stock market Genuis that can beat the market averages for decades. He isn't some guy using high math, but a guy shopping for value, and a guy that does his homework.

One of his sayings is...
" Your better off buying a great company at an average price, instead of an average company at a great price."

I see that in Phillidelphia today. The Eagles are thinking super bowl this year, and that all starts week 1.

Buffet also buys the most beaten down stocks that nobody else wants. These stocks get beaten down so much, to the point where they are actually undervalued.

I certainly see that with the Giants +6, and that Indy 2nd half over on thursday.

Here is the plan, subject to change.
1PM
Watch
Eagles @ Green Bay
Dolphins @ Redskins
DVR/record
Steelers @ Cleveland
Carolina @ St. Louis

4PM
watch
Bears @ San Diego
DVR
TB @ Seattle
Detroit @ Oakland

Night
watch Giants/Cowgirls

The only other changes, is that I kind of want to see ATL/Minny ( see how bad Tavaras Jackson is), or see the new Patriots offense, or also Matt Schaub in Houston, or the Jags/Titans.

too much to see at 1PM
 
I agree that Washington will probably cover here but I'm not touching it....haha...I'm a Miami (dissilutioned) fan. Good Luck today on your card bud. :cheers:
 
Another thing to consider...

One of the reasons teams view rookie running backs as risky, is not because of how they run on 1st or 2nd down, but how they block on 3rd downs.

Offenses use that RB in the backfield as the safety blocker for the QB, and he needs to understand the offense and be on the same page ( either that or the QB points at who to block).

The reason I mention that is because I am certain the Eagles will try and put pressure on Brett Favre. Zone blitzes, overload blitzes, blitzes up the middle, etc.

Jim Johnson is going to try and make it as hard as humanly possible on Brett Favre, and his rookie running back coming off a concussion injury.
 
c-gold, that is great news for me because i am watching the game as a browns fan with a bunch of steelers fans.
 
Raining in cleveland...

that can only help the browns by slowing down slick fast willy. In general I believe that will be good for the dog.
 
CG-

Any thoughts on the Monday games, man? Thinking of going both dog moneylines for same risk and taking the change when one of 'em wins outright.
 
wow the eagles looked bad and mcnabb didn't look very mobile...

Do you think it was just a bad game or is their reason for concern.
 
Sounds good, ED......I don't know about game 1, but it sure looks like public is all over SF in game 2.

But, I think I'll just stay with 2H on these games and take all this line move, smart money, dumb money, public vs Vegas stuff out of the equation and make it easy on me.

Cheers
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Mark's Moneymakers
NFL Saturday
Replies
0
Views
151
Mark's Moneymakers
Mark's Moneymakers
Vapster
MNF Week 1! Thoughts Plays Concerns?! C U Inside!!!
Replies
0
Views
107
Vapster
Vapster
R
Sunday’s NFL bets:
Replies
0
Views
183
ROASHE
R
wiseplayer
Early NFL RSW
Replies
5
Views
202
B.A.R.
B.A.R.
B.A.R.
New here -- prop for Peacock Saturday Night...
Replies
18
Views
523
DaRaiders
DaRaiders
Back
Top