byrd430
Pretty much a regular
Sometimes, I just look up to the betting gods and shake my head. After a terrible season, I finally had a decent run this week to recoup some of my losses...right up til MNF. With the score standing at 20-17 SD, I would've pushed SD and dropped the over, but still would've had at least some profit. Pitt goes down the field, and suddenly, I have hope for getting some more profit! Pitt can tie the game at 20, and a SD TD in OT would've cashed both bets. Or a Pitt TD would let me go 1-1 with a shave loss.
Instead...Pitt scores a TD as time expires...leaving me ONE HALF of a frickin' point off the over and pushing my SD bet to a loss as well.
Story of my life.
Anyway, having such a terrible season, I'm going to change things up a little bit this week. I'm taking away all my personal feelings, angles, trends, etc. etc. and looking purely at statistics. Beyond that, I'm simplifying things as much as I can, so no more obscure stats. Total/Pass/Run Off, Total/Pass/Run Def, Scoring Off/Def, TO Margin, INT, FUM, Net Points, SOS, and Pass/Rush TDs are the only stats I'm looking at. I used this back when I was 17 in high school to make SU picks and it made me look like a frickin' 17 yr old genius. I know there are flaws in it - I know a team's total offense can look great when they face bottom 5 defenses the whole season- but I just feel like I don't have a real good pulse on this season. I will include certain stats so everybody can make fun of it when it blows up in my face.
Here goes nothing...
Week 5: 6-6, -.6u
Season: 34-36, -6.2u
Week 6 Plays
Atlanta Falcons -3
Atlanta Falcons - New Orleans Saints Over 51
Falcons 4th ranked offense vs. Saints NFL-worst defense should pretty much cover it. Saints do have the #3 passing attack vs the Falcons NFL-worst passing defense, but the Falcons will have success as well. Atlanta's 9th ranked rushing offense takes on one of the league's worst in the Saints. The Saints haven't been able to run the ball well, but Atlanta doesn't defend the run well either. Pure PPG projects 9 point win, Saints HFA worth 2pts. ATL is +5 TO Margin, NO is -5. Atlanta's 50 Net Points is 90 better than NO's -40. Atlanta a slight favorite in SOS.
Denver Broncos - Cleveland Browns Under 42.5
Denver 30th ranked offense vs. Cleveland's 29th ranked defense. Cleveland's 8th ranked offense vs. Denver's NFL best defense. Passing Offense (vs. Other team's Passing Defense) is below average for both teams. Denver can't run, Cleveland can't defend the run. Cleveland can't run but Denver is stout against the run. Both teams middle of the pack scoring wise, Denver scoring defense is 2nd best in the league giving up 16ppg. Cleveland in the bottom half of the league giving up 26ppg. Here's where things get troubling: Denver +6 TO Margin vs. Cleveland -3 TO Margin. Cleveland has 9 fumbles on the season - Denver has forced 10 fumbles. Cleveland has allowed 18 sacks while Denver has 22 sacks. Denver has a clear edge in SOS. If the offense wasn't as terrible as they were, Denver would be a play as well.
Cincinnati Bengals -1.5
Bengals hold an edge over Bills in almost every single category I use, with big advantages in total offense and passing offense. Bills do own a strong edge in running offense and TO margin. Bills have HFA, but have the NFL's weakest HFA this week. Score projects 26-24, Bengals which is close, but with the way the Bengals are playing now + their advantages over Buffalo and Tyrod Taylor's regression + a pretty low line equals a play.
Kansas City Chiefs - Minnesota Vikings Under 44.5
Both teams below average in total and passing offense (vs. other team's defense). Minnesota 2nd rank rushing attack vs. KC's below average run defense. KC has 18th ranked rushing attack and does play Minnesota's bottom 10 rushing defense - but with Jamaal Charles out, that could have a major effect. KC average scoring offense and bottom 3 scoring defense vs. Minnesota's 23rd ranked scoring offense and top 6 scoring defense. Minnesota has this week's highest HFA and holds a considerable edge in TOs. Minnesota almost a play, but KC has the #1 SOS in the league, Minnesota has the #18.
Houston Texans - Jacksonville Jaguars Over 42.5
Okay, well I kind of sorta maybe a little bit lied this week. There's a trend that says to play the Thursday night host over in their next game regardless of venue. It was a 26-6 winner when I started betting it a couple weeks ago, so naturally it went 0-2 the last two weeks. Damn betting gods....
Houston passing offense is top 5 in the league. Jacksonville ranks around the league average in all total/passing/rushing offense & defense. Both teams have bottom third scoring offenses, but Houston ranks 23 and Jacksonville 31 in scoring defenses. Projection score calls for 50 points which is over a touchdown more than the total. Teams are pretty even in all other categories with Jacksonville's -3 TO margin besting Houston's -8. Jacksonville has a definite edge in SOS.
Chicago Bears +3.5
Bears own a clear edge over Detroit in total and rushing offense (vs. other team's defense). Original projection score has this dead even - when adding Detroit's HFA, the Lions projected to win by 2. Pretty even everywhere else. Both teams only have 2 rushing TDs, but Chicago has only allowed 2 rushing TDs this season where Detroit has given up 8. Detroit also has 9 interceptions thrown and 9 fumbles, but Chicago defense only has 2 interceptions and has only forced 2 fumbles.
Tennessee Titans -2
Tennessee owns SIGNIFICANT edges in total offense and rushing offense (vs. other team's defense). Miami is terrible offensively and defensively. Titans project to an 8 point win. Titans have slight edges in every other category except SOS, but both team's SOS is bottom half (Tennessee's 30, Miami 21)
Baltimore Ravens -2.5
Baltimore holds significant edge in total offense and passing offense (vs. other team's defense). SF holds slight rushing offense (vs. other team's defense) edge but it's only slightly above average. Interestingly enough, the projection score calls for Baltimore to win by 2.5 (which is rounded up to 3). Most other stats are even with Baltimore holding a heavy edge in net points (mostly due to the blowout losses by SF). Baltimore's -14 net points suggests they should be better than 1-4. Both teams have top 3 SOS.
New York Giants +4
Projection score calls for Philadelphia 2pt win. Both teams have top passing offenses (vs. other team's defense) which could be troubling for Giants with ODB injury. Still all other stats are pretty damn even.
Instead...Pitt scores a TD as time expires...leaving me ONE HALF of a frickin' point off the over and pushing my SD bet to a loss as well.
Story of my life.
Anyway, having such a terrible season, I'm going to change things up a little bit this week. I'm taking away all my personal feelings, angles, trends, etc. etc. and looking purely at statistics. Beyond that, I'm simplifying things as much as I can, so no more obscure stats. Total/Pass/Run Off, Total/Pass/Run Def, Scoring Off/Def, TO Margin, INT, FUM, Net Points, SOS, and Pass/Rush TDs are the only stats I'm looking at. I used this back when I was 17 in high school to make SU picks and it made me look like a frickin' 17 yr old genius. I know there are flaws in it - I know a team's total offense can look great when they face bottom 5 defenses the whole season- but I just feel like I don't have a real good pulse on this season. I will include certain stats so everybody can make fun of it when it blows up in my face.
Here goes nothing...
Week 5: 6-6, -.6u
Season: 34-36, -6.2u
Week 6 Plays
Atlanta Falcons -3
Atlanta Falcons - New Orleans Saints Over 51
Falcons 4th ranked offense vs. Saints NFL-worst defense should pretty much cover it. Saints do have the #3 passing attack vs the Falcons NFL-worst passing defense, but the Falcons will have success as well. Atlanta's 9th ranked rushing offense takes on one of the league's worst in the Saints. The Saints haven't been able to run the ball well, but Atlanta doesn't defend the run well either. Pure PPG projects 9 point win, Saints HFA worth 2pts. ATL is +5 TO Margin, NO is -5. Atlanta's 50 Net Points is 90 better than NO's -40. Atlanta a slight favorite in SOS.
Denver Broncos - Cleveland Browns Under 42.5
Denver 30th ranked offense vs. Cleveland's 29th ranked defense. Cleveland's 8th ranked offense vs. Denver's NFL best defense. Passing Offense (vs. Other team's Passing Defense) is below average for both teams. Denver can't run, Cleveland can't defend the run. Cleveland can't run but Denver is stout against the run. Both teams middle of the pack scoring wise, Denver scoring defense is 2nd best in the league giving up 16ppg. Cleveland in the bottom half of the league giving up 26ppg. Here's where things get troubling: Denver +6 TO Margin vs. Cleveland -3 TO Margin. Cleveland has 9 fumbles on the season - Denver has forced 10 fumbles. Cleveland has allowed 18 sacks while Denver has 22 sacks. Denver has a clear edge in SOS. If the offense wasn't as terrible as they were, Denver would be a play as well.
Cincinnati Bengals -1.5
Bengals hold an edge over Bills in almost every single category I use, with big advantages in total offense and passing offense. Bills do own a strong edge in running offense and TO margin. Bills have HFA, but have the NFL's weakest HFA this week. Score projects 26-24, Bengals which is close, but with the way the Bengals are playing now + their advantages over Buffalo and Tyrod Taylor's regression + a pretty low line equals a play.
Kansas City Chiefs - Minnesota Vikings Under 44.5
Both teams below average in total and passing offense (vs. other team's defense). Minnesota 2nd rank rushing attack vs. KC's below average run defense. KC has 18th ranked rushing attack and does play Minnesota's bottom 10 rushing defense - but with Jamaal Charles out, that could have a major effect. KC average scoring offense and bottom 3 scoring defense vs. Minnesota's 23rd ranked scoring offense and top 6 scoring defense. Minnesota has this week's highest HFA and holds a considerable edge in TOs. Minnesota almost a play, but KC has the #1 SOS in the league, Minnesota has the #18.
Houston Texans - Jacksonville Jaguars Over 42.5
Okay, well I kind of sorta maybe a little bit lied this week. There's a trend that says to play the Thursday night host over in their next game regardless of venue. It was a 26-6 winner when I started betting it a couple weeks ago, so naturally it went 0-2 the last two weeks. Damn betting gods....
Houston passing offense is top 5 in the league. Jacksonville ranks around the league average in all total/passing/rushing offense & defense. Both teams have bottom third scoring offenses, but Houston ranks 23 and Jacksonville 31 in scoring defenses. Projection score calls for 50 points which is over a touchdown more than the total. Teams are pretty even in all other categories with Jacksonville's -3 TO margin besting Houston's -8. Jacksonville has a definite edge in SOS.
Chicago Bears +3.5
Bears own a clear edge over Detroit in total and rushing offense (vs. other team's defense). Original projection score has this dead even - when adding Detroit's HFA, the Lions projected to win by 2. Pretty even everywhere else. Both teams only have 2 rushing TDs, but Chicago has only allowed 2 rushing TDs this season where Detroit has given up 8. Detroit also has 9 interceptions thrown and 9 fumbles, but Chicago defense only has 2 interceptions and has only forced 2 fumbles.
Tennessee Titans -2
Tennessee owns SIGNIFICANT edges in total offense and rushing offense (vs. other team's defense). Miami is terrible offensively and defensively. Titans project to an 8 point win. Titans have slight edges in every other category except SOS, but both team's SOS is bottom half (Tennessee's 30, Miami 21)
Baltimore Ravens -2.5
Baltimore holds significant edge in total offense and passing offense (vs. other team's defense). SF holds slight rushing offense (vs. other team's defense) edge but it's only slightly above average. Interestingly enough, the projection score calls for Baltimore to win by 2.5 (which is rounded up to 3). Most other stats are even with Baltimore holding a heavy edge in net points (mostly due to the blowout losses by SF). Baltimore's -14 net points suggests they should be better than 1-4. Both teams have top 3 SOS.
New York Giants +4
Projection score calls for Philadelphia 2pt win. Both teams have top passing offenses (vs. other team's defense) which could be troubling for Giants with ODB injury. Still all other stats are pretty damn even.
