Some thoughts:
Rams have scored some big wins @home in the last couple years. They've beaten Denver, Seattle, Arizona, New Orleans, etc. @home in last 3 years and have beaten Seattle already in the Dome. Rams D-Line will probably cause Roethlisberger some problems and Steelers defense has overachieved so far, imho. Looking for the scoreboard to be very similar to Week 1 vs. SEA.
I know football/the math doesn't really work like this, but Minnesota beat Detroit pretty convincingly last week whereas SD had to put together a furious second half rally to edge out Detroit in Week 1. Add to that, the Vikings are @home and this will be SD's second straight 10AM start time after traveling to Cincy last week.
I will probably fade the Eagles until further notice. Philly looked terrible vs. Dallas last week, now they're going up against probably one of the best defenses in the NFL in NYJ. Fitz is serviceable, and is better than Bradford at this point (something I never ever ever ever thought I'd be saying). Indy has serious issues on the defensive side of the ball and NYJ only put up 20 on them, hence the under.
I generally fade the Pats as 14+ pt favs. Dunno what it is about NE, but they normally treat these games like it was a scrimmage or something. Trends support the over.
I just cannot buy into a football team that starts Josh McCown or Johnny Manziel as their starting QB, which is a shame because Cleveland could be competitive with a good QB. But that last time they had a good QB was..... damn, I don't even know if I'm old enough to remember such a time? Anyway, I like the potential of Carr-Cooper and see this one being a FG game either way.
0-2 on 49ers games so far, fading them in Wk 1 and backing them in Wk 2. Third time's the charm? Maybe. Cards are probably a little overvalued because of their offensive outputs in first two weeks, but 49ers just gave up 43 to Pittsburgh and looked more like the defense I expected them to be. Also, that offense vs. a very good AZ defense? And I get it in the desert? I could see a blowout here but nothing less than a 6 pt. win by AZ if SF decides to play them tough.
I expect Seattle to make a statement this game. They love to play with a chip on their shoulder, and with an 0-2 start, they've got a pretty good sized one. Kam Chancellor may not be 100% in game shape, but just his presence as a leader of that defense will be enough for them to stifle what should be a 1 dimensional attack from Chicago with Jeffery hurt and a nicked up backup QB. Seattle should control Forte and give Russell Wilson plenty of chances to open up the offense against a poor defense.
With everything even, I think Buffalo is just a better football team top to bottom than Miami is. Rex Ryan has had a lot of success against Miami as well, but remember a lot of those came with the NYJ that went to AFC Championships vs. Miami teams that were more or less rebuilding. Both Buffalo and Miami have solid defenses, but I'm gonna back the home team in the heat with the more experienced QB.
Denver because. I realize Peyton Manning is in the graveyard years of his career and this should be his last NFL season. I also realize he's miscast in the new Kubiak scheme, but last week when everyone counted him out, Kubiak opened up the playbook and let Manning lead his team back to a win. I honestly think Denver's coaching staff will learn from that. Even if they start off slow, Detroit's defense has already shown the ability to let a team come back on them. Aside from that, I expect Denver's defense to pick it up against a pretty shaky (so far) Stafford.
Huge over trend to support the KC-GB game, and with the Chiefs sporting some good pass rushers and Rodgers has some of his receivers missing or dinged up. Don't think KC will win outright, but think they can keep it close with Jamaal Charles and Alex Smith managing the game. I see Charles having a big game.
Last two:
Okay, look. I realize the Colts got drubbed against Buffalo and the NYJ. I realize they have some very real issues there on both sides of the ball. But come on! This is still Indianapolis vs. Tennessee. This is still Andrew Luck vs. a rookie QB. Last week, several people lost their minds because Tenny was overvalued against a Johnny Football led Browns team. Yet, this week, people are picking Tennessee to upset Andrew frickin' Luck? Tennessee who won all of 2 football games last year over perennial AFC South Champions Indianapolis?
Yeah. I'm not buying it. Colts -3 may be my most favorite play since I've started gambling.
Finally, Dallas.
As a Cowboys fan, I cannot tell you how unbelievably hurt I am right now with Romo, Dez, Scandrick, Gregory, Witten, Mincey, and Leary all banged up. My only thought is we just need to survive long enough to get those guys back and make a late playoff run. Luckily we're in the right division to do such a thing, we do have some winnable games coming up, and we have the early bye week (which I've always despised having, but glad to have it this year). One of those winnable games is this week @home vs. Atlanta. We don't have much of a home field advantage and that's negated even more by a dome team like Atlanta. But with Tevin Coleman out, we should be able to keep a handle on Atlanta's run game, which turns Atlanta into a Ryan-to-Julio type of team. We've been able to take away the #1 receivers when we're able to stick to our gameplan, like we did with ODB in Wk 1. Yeah, Julio's a different beast, but hopefully we can limit their big plays. If this becomes a shootout, we're doomed.
Offensively, we're in good enough shape that we can at least compete. Not only can we control the clock with our O-Line and our backs, but Weeden doesn't have to sling the ball all over the field when he does throw. We've shown success with our backs catching out of the backfield, Dunbar's ability to work in space, and Cole Beasley working those underneath routes for good gains. If we need to get downfield, Terrence Williams stepped up last week, and I hope to see that continue though last year, he disappeared entirely too much. Even with Witten banged up, Escobar has been a nightmare to cover in preseason and scrimmage games and he's come through with some nice plays in each of the first 2 weeks. Weeden shouldn't be rushed into any mistakes, especially against this Atlanta defense. So if we can limit the mistakes, clean up those penalties (which I fully believe we will), and control the clock, I think this is our game to lose.
