byrd430
Pretty much a regular
For the second straight week, my new "stats only" projections picked up a profit when betting on every side and total for the week. Including an unposted loss on the Steelers total, the projections went 16-12 for a +2.8u profit. Since this is a work in progress, I tweaked the spreadsheet just a bit, mainly to make it a little easier to report the findings.
The projections only take into account the statistics and rankings of each team without any regard to anything else. For the most part, it is simply calculating a team's offensive stat vs. the other team's defensive stat. Really, the only statistic used for the actual projections and plays is simply the points per game scored vs. the opponent's points per game allowed, with a small adjustment for home field advantages. I'm including other stats, trying to look for a pattern, but with just 2 weeks of data, nothing has emerged yet. Best case scenario, I can at least report the findings for general information.
Actual numbers will be used for almost every category except for Total Offense-Passing Offense-Rushing Offense. For these, I only used the team rankings. A team whose #1 offense faces a #32 defense will get a score of 1, indicating their offense would rank 1st. A #16 offense vs. a #16 defense would score a 16, indicating an offense that would be league average.
I'm going to post my findings on each game in separate posts under this thread. Take it for what it's worth, use it or don't. I'm in no way advocating any success rates.
The projections only take into account the statistics and rankings of each team without any regard to anything else. For the most part, it is simply calculating a team's offensive stat vs. the other team's defensive stat. Really, the only statistic used for the actual projections and plays is simply the points per game scored vs. the opponent's points per game allowed, with a small adjustment for home field advantages. I'm including other stats, trying to look for a pattern, but with just 2 weeks of data, nothing has emerged yet. Best case scenario, I can at least report the findings for general information.
Actual numbers will be used for almost every category except for Total Offense-Passing Offense-Rushing Offense. For these, I only used the team rankings. A team whose #1 offense faces a #32 defense will get a score of 1, indicating their offense would rank 1st. A #16 offense vs. a #16 defense would score a 16, indicating an offense that would be league average.
I'm going to post my findings on each game in separate posts under this thread. Take it for what it's worth, use it or don't. I'm in no way advocating any success rates.
