Buying runs on baseball lines

S

ssvir

Member
Are there any highly rated books for US players (other than 5Dimes) that allow buying of runs? Looking to diversify my books a bit and other books (Sportsbook, Bookmaker) don't allow buying of runs on totals or run lines.

Posted the same question in the Sportsbook forum but not getting any responses.

Thanks in advance.
 
Wire plays at 5 dimes.....guess thats the only book he plays at that u can buy runs off in baseball
 
Yep, 5dimes only one I use. Why other than 5dimes? It's a pain to get funding in but other than that they are a pretty good book. GL
 
Don't know if that question is for me but i will throw out my two cents answer.......

Hawaii, if you are asking how often is it the difference between winning and losing I would say maybe 50% of my wins by buying would have been losers or pushes. But that's not the value of buying runs for me. This is the part that most people don't understand when it comes to me buying runs and risking that high juice.

There are a lot of games set at a total of 7 1/2 that I would pass. But in many cases my capping says if I can buy the total down to 6 1/2 I will win the over because both starters should allow 3 runs each at minimum. Buying the total down 1/2 to 7 still requires me to score 8 runs to win regardless of the 7 push and that isn't comfortable for me. In that scenario, I still think the book has the advantage because I still risk -140 to only allow/buy me a push. Doesn't make sense to me to do that which is why I will buy the whole run off and risk the high juice.

People mistakenly think that simply buying a run off a total will make a bet a winner. Thinking that they are correct that risking the high juice is dumb in the long haul. But they don't realize that I seriously cap a game and decide what total I can go over very easily then if I can buy the total down to less than that I do regardless of the juice. People will only look at the risk juice number and continually forget to realize that I am going to win the vast majority of these games in the long run and I never pay juice when I win. This is a case where long time "logic" costs more people money than they realize.

Think about the old saw "never bet on a game that is -150 or more. Do these folks think they will win money over the long haul when they only bet on games that could go either way? Because of the anyone can win on any night nature of MLB that's monetary suicide and always has been. GL
 
Well from what my data that I keep tells me that buying points & paying a higher juice is what Books what bettors to believe is the way to profit. As for me I have not bet juice higher then -105 & totally defy juice to grind out profit. Very rarely does the half point come into play from what I know.
 
Books have all bettors believing in this buying points to save yourself from being hooked & on that point it rarely happens. If u cap a game to score 7 runs & total set at 6.5 -120 why not take alt line at 7+100 for instance u would be making no juice risk bet that may or may not push
 
I don't believe that books set high juice because they want the bettors to take those bets. They set high juice on props like that to make the bettors run away. It works because 95% of bettors would never dream of risking juice higher than -140 or so. Unless maybe if they set them up in parlays. But there is even a parlay prejudice from about half the bettors that says only fools bet parlays. I disagree with both of those in that I will always risk high juice to get the line I want and parlays are a very valuable tool especially in baseball.

I think the books do have bettors in football and basketball trying to not get bit by the hook. On that I agree but not in baseball.

In your example, I agree that buying that game down to 7 from 7 1/2 is a mistake. Why risk added juice just to push? You still need 8 runs to win that bet. But if I capped the game at 7 runs I would buy the total down to 6 1/2 and walk away with the win at 7. Risking for ties is not good but risking for wins to me is. GL
 
I don't believe that my way is the only way to make money betting baseball. I have proven on the internet for the last 15 years or so posting every day that you can win doing it my way. But I should say I can win doing it my way. I don't want anyone to think that I am saying my way is the ONLY way to do it. Each person has to do what works for them and they are most comfortable with.

I just shake my head and laugh when people come into my threads and say "You can't win money risking high juice!!!!!" There is much evidence documented to the contrary over the years but there is always different ways to bet and all can be effective. GL
 
Wiretowire said:
I don't believe that my way is the only way to make money betting baseball. I have proven on the internet for the last 15 years or so posting every day that you can win doing it my way. But I should say I can win doing it my way. I don't want anyone to think that I am saying my way is the ONLY way to do it. Each person has to do what works for them and they are most comfortable with.

I just shake my head and laugh when people come into my threads and say "You can't win money risking high juice!!!!!" There is much evidence documented to the contrary over the years but there is always different ways to bet and all can be effective. GL
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We are all entitled to our own opinions but to say that Books juice is tilting the Books hand to a winner, this is what I will say, that you are right 50% of the time. I've found success defying the so called bettors logic. Winning 50% or barely above betting high juice is hardly the risk I would wanna make.
 
Mysteriously internet-vouched and limitless bankroll always helps when betting chalk.
 
It all comes down to what works for you and what are you comfortable with...

a) betting the actual line at Over 7.5 -110 which is a coin flip
b) betting Over 6.5 at -180...because you expect both teams to get their 3 runs and at least get a push.

Most people would either bet the 7.5....and go 50/50....curse when only 7 runs are scored.
I am like Wire2Wire...I pick my spots and then load up on the Over 6.5, go 10-2 and make a profit or even just 8-4 to make a profit.

Do I want to risk 1 unit on a 7.5...or risk 4 units on what I think is probably a sure thing? Do I care if they score 10?...nope...as long as I win and don't pay juice.

For example....going 22-14 (61%), risking 1 unit at -110 would net me 6.6 units.
Or laying the juice....Going 8-4 (66%), risking 4 units at -180....would net me 11.2 units. I could go 10-2 (83%) and pick up 25.6 units.

Which is easier...going 61% on 50/50 (where most people struggle on totals)....or going 66% in less games but higher units? For me...its laying the juice and playing the lower line.

People are unwilling to see the value in 6.5 vs. 7.5.
 
play ball said:
It all comes down to what works for you and what are you comfortable with...

a) betting the actual line at Over 7.5 -110 which is a coin flip
b) betting Over 6.5 at -180...because you expect both teams to get their 3 runs and at least get a push.

Most people would either bet the 7.5....and go 50/50....curse when only 7 runs are scored.
I am like Wire2Wire...I pick my spots and then load up on the Over 6.5, go 10-2 and make a profit or even just 8-4 to make a profit.

Do I want to risk 1 unit on a 7.5...or risk 4 units on what I think is probably a sure thing? Do I care if they score 10?...nope...as long as I win and don't pay juice.

For example....going 22-14 (61%), risking 1 unit at -110 would net me 6.6 units.
Or laying the juice....Going 8-4 (66%), risking 4 units at -180....would net me 11.2 units. I could go 10-2 (83%) and pick up 25.6 units.

Which is easier...going 61% on 50/50 (where most people struggle on totals)....or going 66% in less games but higher units? For me...its laying the juice and playing the lower line.

People are unwilling to see the value in 6.5 vs. 7.5.
Click to expand...


Right that's your money to bet with but going 8-4 betting -180 juice is downright crazy in
my humble opinion. What happens when u have a bad day? Or is it u don't?
 
Wiretowire said:
Yep, 5dimes only one I use. Why other than 5dimes? It's a pain to get funding in but other than that they are a pretty good book. GL
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1. Pain in the neck getting meaningful money into the account.

2. I have a few books and there are typically 10-30 cent differences so I'd like to be able to take advantage of those pricing differences.
 
That's the point entirely that capping carefully and moving the line where you want it results in a whole lot of fewer bad days. They happen but they are much fewer and far between.

Also Hawaii, you asked me how many times buying runs comes directlty into play and I said about 50% of the time. 50% is the added % I would have lost had I not bought runs. There is also around 25-30% of the remaining time when the total sails way over and I win regardless of whether I bought runs or not. I think you assume that buying runs only results in winners 50% of the time but in fact buying runs total win results is winning 75-80% of the bets. It's just half of those that I would have lost had I not bought runs. If I laid high juice and only won 50% of the time I would be bankrupt in short order.

I post all my bets, odds, and a daily recap of results from those posts. I am actually very disappointed because at half way through the season I am only up 200 units. If buying runs didn't work all year every year how is it that I am up so much? I will finish the year again up over 300 units. This is more than an opinion. It is documented proof that what I do works. Every year. GL
 
wire, some of us think it's silly. The only way to make money (on the internet) betting chalk every day is to chase after a losing day. As if the bankroll has no bottom. I don't know about you, but if I go 1-5 betting -200 favorites, I can't double up the following day. In the real world, that's when bettors take a little break and lick their wounds.
 
I agree Tip. When you get your ass beat on a bad day you have to take the loss. Doubling, except in chases where it is designed, is not a good solution. GL
 
Interesting reads above.

Totally agree with Wire on the answers.
If the line is supported by even action so the books make money, then his capping skills exceed the public's capping skills greatly when finding value in buying a better number.
A total of 7.5 may be the number that the book sets for even action and wins the juice in volumes of bets. But sonetimes, a great capping advantage is consistent with winning on these "even-action" lines when buying runs.

To only make a bet because of a line at -105, or to never make a bet on a line over -140 is purely consistent with a narrow capping level of knowledge, or - consistent with a limited ability to find value in any number. There are many capping systems that work for many gamblers. Most of which, are like bigger winners than losers if they find these advantages to buying points/runs etc.

Being afraid to buy runs or play lines that are larger than 140 is simply putting the capping capacity into a small spectrum and would be an indication that capping skills are inadequate beyonfd those numbers. Meaning that if you dont know why the lines are larger, then you shouldn't bet the game. But if you can find why the number is larger, then you should still be able to find an advantage in either the dog of the favorite. If not, then you are only guessing imo.
 
The Capping Genius said:
Interesting reads above.

Totally agree with Wire on the answers.
If the line is supported by even action so the books make money, then his capping skills exceed the public's capping skills greatly when finding value in buying a better number.
A total of 7.5 may be the number that the book sets for even action and wins the juice in volumes of bets. But sonetimes, a great capping advantage is consistent with winning on these "even-action" lines when buying runs.

To only make a bet because of a line at -105, or to never make a bet on a line over -140 is purely consistent with a narrow capping level of knowledge, or - consistent with a limited ability to find value in any number. There are many capping systems that work for many gamblers. Most of which, are like bigger winners than losers if they find these advantages to buying points/runs etc.

Being afraid to buy runs or play lines that are larger than 140 is simply putting the capping capacity into a small spectrum and would be an indication that capping skills are inadequate beyond those numbers. Meaning that if you dont know why the lines are larger, then you shouldn't bet the game. But if you can find why the number is larger, then you should still be able to find an advantage in either the dog of the favorite. If not, then you are only guessing imo.
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very good thread and a lot to be learned if one takes some simple advice, buy ur play to key #s. U will hear many more cappers cuss that half pt loss than cheer their half pt win..... but there are many ways to win at this thing we do. If it is ur personal choice to play low odd

very well said CappingGenius, Tippy playball....I was trying to stay out of this conversation but as well as u worded this statement I had to give U a double :thumbsup2: :thumbsup2:


Tippy also had a valid pt... one needs maintain a decent bankroll to play the way Wire and I play. Three or four big losing nites and we are in a deep hole as u can see by Wire's big ytd swings but I have never known Wire to have a losing yr, posted plays or not...some players just cant handle this kind of swings and I understand that....but then there are many dog and low vig players that are not even around towards mid season playing their so called smart value plays using dogs and low juice plays.Thankfully we have many good cappers at this site that make a decent profit every yr. When it gets right down to it, It is all about smart capping whether it is a -220 favorite of a +180 dog. When one has done this stuff for many yrs one develops a ''feel'' for the game and that is what Wire has. Feel

playball's post may have summarized Wire's thoughts the best. While Wire and I are in total agreement on buying pts, we sometimes disagree on the amount of pts to buy. Where Wire will almost always buy a 7.5 pt total to down 6.5, if after capping I think 7 is a good #, I will only buy a half and go with the 7 pt total and trust my capping that it goes over the 7 and try and save 40 or 50 cents if the play does go bad. Yeah, I know Wire's 6.5 wins and I push but I am wiling to take a chance.
Bottom line, buying pts over time wins more than it loses....Wire has proved it by posting on the net for at least 14 yrs, yr after yr. So Wire's method does work and works well.

GLTA
 
play ball said:
It all comes down to what works for you and what are you comfortable with...

a) betting the actual line at Over 7.5 -110 which is a coin flip
b) betting Over 6.5 at -180...because you expect both teams to get their 3 runs and at least get a push.

Most people would either bet the 7.5....and go 50/50....curse when only 7 runs are scored.
I am like Wire2Wire...I pick my spots and then load up on the Over 6.5, go 10-2 and make a profit or even just 8-4 to make a profit.

Do I want to risk 1 unit on a 7.5...or risk 4 units on what I think is probably a sure thing? Do I care if they score 10?...nope...as long as I win and don't pay juice.

For example....going 22-14 (61%), risking 1 unit at -110 would net me 6.6 units.
Or laying the juice....Going 8-4 (66%), risking 4 units at -180....would net me 11.2 units. I could go 10-2 (83%) and pick up 25.6 units.

Which is easier...going 61% on 50/50 (where most people struggle on totals)....or going 66% in less games but higher units? For me...its laying the juice and playing the lower line.

People are unwilling to see the value in 6.5 vs. 7.5.
Click to expand...

going 8-4 (66%) risking 4 units at -180 nets you 11.2 units ??
 
Here is a little secret for all u people that buy points.... It's an overrated concept that books have u all believing it's an edge to make $$$ gambling. For the past year I have grind out profit making wagers -105 or less and if no other option -110 <~ Now that's juice I can live with if not for my style of betting. I'm just saying that Books want u to believe what they want u to believe & most gamblers do Lol
 
Hawaiiankings1 said:
Here is a little secret for all u people that buy points.... It's an overrated concept that books have u all believing it's an edge to make $$$ gambling. For the past year I have grind out profit making wagers -105 or less and if no other option -110 <~ Now that's juice I can live with if not for my style of betting. I'm just saying that Books want u to believe what they want u to believe & most gamblers do Lol
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Beautiful post.^ (I love secrets)
Just help us out a bit will you? Please show us some plays as we go through the remainder of the season. If you get hot, we will tail you.

Thanks for the info.
 
I agree. Post your plays every day for the rest of the season. I will be the first in line to congratulate you on a winning season and I will stop buying runs and do it your way if in fact it does prove to be very effective. These forums are designed to share information. You will see my post every day and we would love to see yours. Please share your picks. GL
 
I am not telling u or anybody to change your way of betting but the fact of the matter is that the hook does not come into play as much as u would assume it does. To me it's simple if u believe every game will be that close then u are not capping the game correctly in my opinion.
 
Hawaiiankings1 said:
I am not telling u or anybody to change your way of betting but the fact of the matter is that the hook does not come into play as much as u would assume it does. To me it's simple if u believe every game will be that close then u are not capping the game correctly in my opinion.
Click to expand...

I agree with your quote. So why wouldnt you be capping good enough to find an advantage in a -140 line or greater or see an advantage in a run line that is off enough to make buying a run or so a big advantage? HMMM
 
Here is what I would like to throw out to u people that buy runs or points at that, go through all your post & check for yourself how many of those games were influenced by the hook off the closing line. Then check how u would have fared had u bought a half point or so using Alt line that would range +100 & up in the plus margin. Maybe then u may get the point I am trying to get across.
 
Hawaiiankings1 said:
Here is what I would like to throw out to u people that buy runs or points at that, go through all your post & check for yourself how many of those games were influenced by the hook off the closing line. Then check how u would have fared had u bought a half point or so using Alt line that would range +100 & up in the plus margin. Maybe then u may get the point I am trying to get across.
Click to expand...

Ok . Thats fair enough
I will simply wait to see how good your plays are when you post them here.
Who do you like today?
 
Like I was saying I'm on twitter the only place I post my plays & I only accept people that are not Touts or affiliated in anyway with Touts. I am also not here to step on anyone's toes here as I am new here. I'm a grind it out defy the books kind of bettor it's who I am. I know people that have very nice records but bet the juice, that will lose all their profit in 1 day even after a good few days. Records can be deceiving as that's what most new bettors look at when they tail. I think there are so much info nowadays via the Internet. HP Umps, Pitchers, trends & etc that finding 1 good play amongst many to bet Alt line is very much conceivable.
 
Wiretowire said:
I don't believe that my way is the only way to make money betting baseball. I have proven on the internet for the last 15 years or so posting every day that you can win doing it my way. But I should say I can win doing it my way. I don't want anyone to think that I am saying my way is the ONLY way to do it. Each person has to do what works for them and they are most comfortable with.

I just shake my head and laugh when people come into my threads and say "You can't win money risking high juice!!!!!" There is much evidence documented to the contrary over the years but there is always different ways to bet and all can be effective. GL
Click to expand...


one of the wisest posts I seen in my 17 years of posting plays on the net....\m/
 
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