Bulls vs. Celtics Top Picks for Monday: Underdog Bulls Have Too Many Weapons for Celtics
Best Bet: Bulls +8.5 at -108 with Heritage
Chicago Bulls vs. Boston Celtics
Monday, January 9, 2023 at 7:30 p.m. ET at TD Garden in Boston
Boston Is an Unreliable Favorite
According to the NBA odds, the Celtics are solidly favored to win tonight's game.
The problem with this fact is that they do not play their best basketball when they are facing lesser opponents.
On January 3, lowly Oklahoma City blew out Boston 150-117.
In their last game, the Celtics beat San Antonio by five, although they were favored to win by 15.
It is not just the lower caliber of teams that Boston underperforms against.
When the Celtics were 3.5-point favorites on January 1 in Denver, they lost by 12.
Overall, Boston is suffering a 1-4 ATS run when favored, with the one exception coming against the above-.500 Mavericks,
Real Problems
Boston's issues with lesser opponents reveal deeper struggles that have been apparent throughout their season.
Whereas the Celtics feature strong on-ball defense, their team defense has been problematic.
Too frequently, they miscommunicate with each other, fail to coordinate with each other when defending ball screens, and suffer other sorts of defensive lapses that allow opponents to score easy points.
These team-centered defensive problems are directly connected with their struggles against underdog opponents.
While the former are apparent against all of their opponents, they are most apparent when they face teams like the Thunder or even the Nuggets.
It might not make sense to somebody why a team like Boston should struggle with a team like Oklahoma City.
But consider that it's a long season, and it's hard to be excited for every opponent.
Teams with higher goals might find it less exciting to fiddle with low-profile teams.
After all, a strong team doesn't prove anything by beating up an opponent that everybody knows it can beat.
I don't know whether Boston players follow this exact logic, but it is a fact that they are less motivated and therefore are struggling against lesser opponents, and my point is that these particular struggles shouldn't be so surprising.
Missing Marcus Smart
So, we may expect Boston's team defense to suffer tonight.
While normally one may expect the Celtics to thrive in their on-ball defending, even this expectation is misplaced tonight because Boston will miss a key defender.
Point guard Marcus Smart, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, is known for his excellent on-ball defense.
However, he is listed as 'doubtful' for tonight's game with a left knee contusion.
One might say that, while Boston would miss Smart, it will benefit from center Robert Williams III's return, although his presence couldn't keep the Celtics from suffering embarrassing losses to Orlando.
I will address more fully Boston center when I discuss Chicago's.
The takeaway for now is that the Celtics' team and on-ball defending will be substantially weaker tonight than what we normally expect from them.
Chicago's ATS Dominance of Boston
So far, Chicago is 3-0 ATS against the Celtics.
This trend is instructive: evidently, the Bulls are reliable when they play the Celtics.
A Celtic backer might point to anomalous statistics in order to say that the Bulls have succeeded against Boston because they did things that they surely won't do again.
For example, in two of those games, the Bulls converted over 40 percent of their three-point opportunities.
They also made 39.3-percent of their three-point attempts in their third successful game against Boston.
While Chicago shot unusually well in these three games, there must be a reason why this team shoots better against Boston.
One obvious reason is the team-related defensive problems that, as I discussed above, Boston has.
Another reason, which I will now discuss, is the individual abilities of Bull scorers, which they are able to showcase against the Celtics.
Nikola Vucevic
One key Bull scorer Is center Nikola Vucevic.
Vucevic's offensive value is identifiable in his versatility.
He can score in many ways inside the arc, but he is also a floor-spacer with his three-point shooting ability.
Vucevic is one of his team's highest-volume shooters and for good reason. He shoots 37.9-percent from deep.
His strong three-point shooting helps explain his team's success against the Celtics.
While Robert Williams III is back for Boston, Williams has collected his defensive reputation through his success at the rim -- although Magic forwards, for example, were able to score a lot against the Celtics with Williams healthy.
Vucevic can thrive against Boston because he is not dependent on scoring around the basket.
Dangerous DeMar
Another reason for Chicago's success against Boston is the offensive prowess of small forward DeMar DeRozan.
Reputed for his mid-range scoring ability, DeRozan has also thrived against Boston from the free throw line.
Celtic defenders struggle to guard him. Hence, he is averaging 33 points in his three games against them.
The Verdict
Chicago is thriving right now -- the Bulls are on 3-0 SU and ATS runs, with all of their wins coming as underdogs.
They upset the Nets, 76ers, and Jazz.
For the above reasons, Boston is just team against which Chicago can prolong its high-level success.
Regarding the total, the Bull defense is apt to take a quarter off -- often this is the first quarter or the third.
While Chicago's defensive inconsistency will help ensure that the "over" hits, Chicago has too many weapons with Vucevic, DeRozan, not to mention guys like reliable All Star sharp-shooter Zach LaVine, ensuring that the Bulls cover the spread.
Therefore, invest in the underdog Bulls and the "over" tonight.
Best Bet: Over 237.5 at -108 with Heritage
Best Bet: Bulls +8.5 at -108 with Heritage
Chicago Bulls vs. Boston Celtics
Monday, January 9, 2023 at 7:30 p.m. ET at TD Garden in Boston
Boston Is an Unreliable Favorite
According to the NBA odds, the Celtics are solidly favored to win tonight's game.
The problem with this fact is that they do not play their best basketball when they are facing lesser opponents.
On January 3, lowly Oklahoma City blew out Boston 150-117.
In their last game, the Celtics beat San Antonio by five, although they were favored to win by 15.
It is not just the lower caliber of teams that Boston underperforms against.
When the Celtics were 3.5-point favorites on January 1 in Denver, they lost by 12.
Overall, Boston is suffering a 1-4 ATS run when favored, with the one exception coming against the above-.500 Mavericks,
Real Problems
Boston's issues with lesser opponents reveal deeper struggles that have been apparent throughout their season.
Whereas the Celtics feature strong on-ball defense, their team defense has been problematic.
Too frequently, they miscommunicate with each other, fail to coordinate with each other when defending ball screens, and suffer other sorts of defensive lapses that allow opponents to score easy points.
These team-centered defensive problems are directly connected with their struggles against underdog opponents.
While the former are apparent against all of their opponents, they are most apparent when they face teams like the Thunder or even the Nuggets.
It might not make sense to somebody why a team like Boston should struggle with a team like Oklahoma City.
But consider that it's a long season, and it's hard to be excited for every opponent.
Teams with higher goals might find it less exciting to fiddle with low-profile teams.
After all, a strong team doesn't prove anything by beating up an opponent that everybody knows it can beat.
I don't know whether Boston players follow this exact logic, but it is a fact that they are less motivated and therefore are struggling against lesser opponents, and my point is that these particular struggles shouldn't be so surprising.
Missing Marcus Smart
So, we may expect Boston's team defense to suffer tonight.
While normally one may expect the Celtics to thrive in their on-ball defending, even this expectation is misplaced tonight because Boston will miss a key defender.
Point guard Marcus Smart, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, is known for his excellent on-ball defense.
However, he is listed as 'doubtful' for tonight's game with a left knee contusion.
One might say that, while Boston would miss Smart, it will benefit from center Robert Williams III's return, although his presence couldn't keep the Celtics from suffering embarrassing losses to Orlando.
I will address more fully Boston center when I discuss Chicago's.
The takeaway for now is that the Celtics' team and on-ball defending will be substantially weaker tonight than what we normally expect from them.
Chicago's ATS Dominance of Boston
So far, Chicago is 3-0 ATS against the Celtics.
This trend is instructive: evidently, the Bulls are reliable when they play the Celtics.
A Celtic backer might point to anomalous statistics in order to say that the Bulls have succeeded against Boston because they did things that they surely won't do again.
For example, in two of those games, the Bulls converted over 40 percent of their three-point opportunities.
They also made 39.3-percent of their three-point attempts in their third successful game against Boston.
While Chicago shot unusually well in these three games, there must be a reason why this team shoots better against Boston.
One obvious reason is the team-related defensive problems that, as I discussed above, Boston has.
Another reason, which I will now discuss, is the individual abilities of Bull scorers, which they are able to showcase against the Celtics.
Nikola Vucevic
One key Bull scorer Is center Nikola Vucevic.
Vucevic's offensive value is identifiable in his versatility.
He can score in many ways inside the arc, but he is also a floor-spacer with his three-point shooting ability.
Vucevic is one of his team's highest-volume shooters and for good reason. He shoots 37.9-percent from deep.
His strong three-point shooting helps explain his team's success against the Celtics.
While Robert Williams III is back for Boston, Williams has collected his defensive reputation through his success at the rim -- although Magic forwards, for example, were able to score a lot against the Celtics with Williams healthy.
Vucevic can thrive against Boston because he is not dependent on scoring around the basket.
Dangerous DeMar
Another reason for Chicago's success against Boston is the offensive prowess of small forward DeMar DeRozan.
Reputed for his mid-range scoring ability, DeRozan has also thrived against Boston from the free throw line.
Celtic defenders struggle to guard him. Hence, he is averaging 33 points in his three games against them.
The Verdict
Chicago is thriving right now -- the Bulls are on 3-0 SU and ATS runs, with all of their wins coming as underdogs.
They upset the Nets, 76ers, and Jazz.
For the above reasons, Boston is just team against which Chicago can prolong its high-level success.
Regarding the total, the Bull defense is apt to take a quarter off -- often this is the first quarter or the third.
While Chicago's defensive inconsistency will help ensure that the "over" hits, Chicago has too many weapons with Vucevic, DeRozan, not to mention guys like reliable All Star sharp-shooter Zach LaVine, ensuring that the Bulls cover the spread.
Therefore, invest in the underdog Bulls and the "over" tonight.
Best Bet: Over 237.5 at -108 with Heritage
