NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Chicago Bulls vs. Indiana Pacers
Monday, February 15, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana
Working Inside
Indiana primarily wants to score at the basket. It averages the most field goal attempts per game within five feet of the basket.
Domantas Sabonis is Indiana’s biggest threat at the basket in more ways than he ever had been before.
Sabonis has always been a post-up threat who can bully or finesse his way to the basket. Likewise conventional for a big man, he’s been used to serving as the roll man after setting a screen.
Under new head coach Nate Bjorkgren, Sabonis is diversifying his toolkit. He is playing more of a face-up game.
With a career-high 5.6 assists per game, Sabonis is also more of a facilitator, which gives him more options to be productive when the opposing team tries to double-team him.
In order to create more scoring opportunities, he’ll locate cutters to the basket.
Pacers Offense vs. Bulls Defense
Offensively, Indiana matches up well with Chicago because the Bulls allow the ninth-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
In the interior, Chicago’s big men offer negligible rim protection, which is why the Bulls rank 26th in blocks per game.
They especially miss starting center Wendell Carter Jr., who is their best defender.
Carter Jr. is finally listed as ‘questionable.’ But he hasn’t played in a game since January 18.
On defense, Chicago is further hurt by its guards. Both Coby White and Zach LaVine are known for being poor on-ball defenders. Both players suffer poor defensive ratings.
So not only can Pacer bigs like Sabonis thrive inside against Chicago’s bigs, Pacer guards like Malcolm Brogdon can penetrate inside and create shots for himself or for others.
Chicago Offense vs. Indiana Defense
Starting Chicago power forward Lauri Markkanen remains out for multiple weeks due to a shoulder sprain.
His absence reduces the Bulls’ ability to stretch the floor.
In particular, teams should want to force Sabonis, who already carries a significant load on offense, to run around a lot on defense.
They should also try to pull center Myles Turner away from the basket. Turner leads the NBA in blocks per game with 3.4.
But without Markkanen, the Bulls can at most rely on Patrick Williams to threaten from deep. He has made only four three-pointers in seven games this month.
The Bulls’ lack of three-point shooting bigs allows Indiana’s big men to play more drop coverage where they don’t have to worry about the pick-and-pop and can instead focus on defending the rim.
Based on opposing PPP, Indiana owns one of the better ball-screen defenses largely due to rim protection from guys like Turner.
Good ball screen defense is important against a Bull offense that relies heavily on setting screens for ball-handlers like LaVine.
If Pacer bigs switch onto smaller ball-handlers, look for them to remain locked in only long enough to deter an easy drive before they switch back.
Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks
Monday, February 15, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden in New York
New York’s Ball-Screen Defense
Based on opposing PPP, the Knicks own the seventh-best defense against the pick-and-roll ball-handler.
Against this play type, the Knicks like to play shallow drop coverage.
When an opposing big goes to the three-point line to set a screen, the New York player guarding the screener will not follow him to the perimeter.
Instead, the Knick player will remain in the paint in order to deter the ball-handler from driving while remaining in good position to recover to the basket in case the opposing ball-handler should try to hit the roll man.
Atlanta Offense vs. Knick Defense
Having strong ball-screen defense is crucial against a Hawk offense that relies heavily on setting screens for its ball-handler.
Hawk guard Trae Young wants to drive the ball especially by utilizing a screen. He averages the third most drives per game in the NBA.
So with its effective ball-screen defense, its shallow drop coverage, the Knicks are qualitatively and stylistically prepared to account for what Young wants to do.
Playing shallow coverage does open a defense up to the pick-and-pop from the opponent. But Atlanta isn’t going to beat you with three-point shooting bigs like Chicago could with Markkanen.
It will obviously be worth conceding maybe one or two three-pointers from John Collins in return for limiting Young’s driving game because Young constitutes the focal point of Atlanta’s offense.
Knick Offense vs. Atlanta Defense
New York typically wants to score inside. A larger frequency of its shot attempts happen within five feet of the basket.
The Knicks have acquired the personnel to score inside with shooting guards like Immanuel Quickley who actually prefer to penetrate inside.
While Quickley is known for his floaters, skilled power forward Julius Randle leads the team with 22.4 points per game.
New acquisition Derrick Rose is well-acclimated to the team, having played three games with the Knicks and helping them cover the spread in the last two.
Rose is known especially for his dribble penetration. He will feast upon Trae Young, whose defensive ceiling is limited by his tiny frame.
Opposing players are wise to target Young given his poor defensive rating.
His tendency to allow opponents to attack inside helps explain why the Hawks rank 25th in opposing points in the paint.
So Rose gives New York a significant upgrade at point guard and, stylistically, is primed to thrive at what he does best tonight.
The Verdict
Indiana will keep up its hot scoring streak by thriving inside against Chicago’s weak and injury-ridden interior defense.
Defensively, the Pacer ball-screen defense and interior resistance will remain stout against a Bull offense missing versatility.
New York will live in the paint, exactly as it wants to do, given Atlanta’s inability to defend the paint.
Likewise, the Knicks have the structure and personnel to undermine what the Hawks want to do most offensively.
Best Bet: Parlay Pacers -5.5 at -108 & Knicks +1.5 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
Chicago Bulls vs. Indiana Pacers
Monday, February 15, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana
Working Inside
Indiana primarily wants to score at the basket. It averages the most field goal attempts per game within five feet of the basket.
Domantas Sabonis is Indiana’s biggest threat at the basket in more ways than he ever had been before.
Sabonis has always been a post-up threat who can bully or finesse his way to the basket. Likewise conventional for a big man, he’s been used to serving as the roll man after setting a screen.
Under new head coach Nate Bjorkgren, Sabonis is diversifying his toolkit. He is playing more of a face-up game.
With a career-high 5.6 assists per game, Sabonis is also more of a facilitator, which gives him more options to be productive when the opposing team tries to double-team him.
In order to create more scoring opportunities, he’ll locate cutters to the basket.
Pacers Offense vs. Bulls Defense
Offensively, Indiana matches up well with Chicago because the Bulls allow the ninth-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
In the interior, Chicago’s big men offer negligible rim protection, which is why the Bulls rank 26th in blocks per game.
They especially miss starting center Wendell Carter Jr., who is their best defender.
Carter Jr. is finally listed as ‘questionable.’ But he hasn’t played in a game since January 18.
On defense, Chicago is further hurt by its guards. Both Coby White and Zach LaVine are known for being poor on-ball defenders. Both players suffer poor defensive ratings.
So not only can Pacer bigs like Sabonis thrive inside against Chicago’s bigs, Pacer guards like Malcolm Brogdon can penetrate inside and create shots for himself or for others.
Chicago Offense vs. Indiana Defense
Starting Chicago power forward Lauri Markkanen remains out for multiple weeks due to a shoulder sprain.
His absence reduces the Bulls’ ability to stretch the floor.
In particular, teams should want to force Sabonis, who already carries a significant load on offense, to run around a lot on defense.
They should also try to pull center Myles Turner away from the basket. Turner leads the NBA in blocks per game with 3.4.
But without Markkanen, the Bulls can at most rely on Patrick Williams to threaten from deep. He has made only four three-pointers in seven games this month.
The Bulls’ lack of three-point shooting bigs allows Indiana’s big men to play more drop coverage where they don’t have to worry about the pick-and-pop and can instead focus on defending the rim.
Based on opposing PPP, Indiana owns one of the better ball-screen defenses largely due to rim protection from guys like Turner.
Good ball screen defense is important against a Bull offense that relies heavily on setting screens for ball-handlers like LaVine.
If Pacer bigs switch onto smaller ball-handlers, look for them to remain locked in only long enough to deter an easy drive before they switch back.
Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks
Monday, February 15, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden in New York
New York’s Ball-Screen Defense
Based on opposing PPP, the Knicks own the seventh-best defense against the pick-and-roll ball-handler.
Against this play type, the Knicks like to play shallow drop coverage.
When an opposing big goes to the three-point line to set a screen, the New York player guarding the screener will not follow him to the perimeter.
Instead, the Knick player will remain in the paint in order to deter the ball-handler from driving while remaining in good position to recover to the basket in case the opposing ball-handler should try to hit the roll man.
Atlanta Offense vs. Knick Defense
Having strong ball-screen defense is crucial against a Hawk offense that relies heavily on setting screens for its ball-handler.
Hawk guard Trae Young wants to drive the ball especially by utilizing a screen. He averages the third most drives per game in the NBA.
So with its effective ball-screen defense, its shallow drop coverage, the Knicks are qualitatively and stylistically prepared to account for what Young wants to do.
Playing shallow coverage does open a defense up to the pick-and-pop from the opponent. But Atlanta isn’t going to beat you with three-point shooting bigs like Chicago could with Markkanen.
It will obviously be worth conceding maybe one or two three-pointers from John Collins in return for limiting Young’s driving game because Young constitutes the focal point of Atlanta’s offense.
Knick Offense vs. Atlanta Defense
New York typically wants to score inside. A larger frequency of its shot attempts happen within five feet of the basket.
The Knicks have acquired the personnel to score inside with shooting guards like Immanuel Quickley who actually prefer to penetrate inside.
While Quickley is known for his floaters, skilled power forward Julius Randle leads the team with 22.4 points per game.
New acquisition Derrick Rose is well-acclimated to the team, having played three games with the Knicks and helping them cover the spread in the last two.
Rose is known especially for his dribble penetration. He will feast upon Trae Young, whose defensive ceiling is limited by his tiny frame.
Opposing players are wise to target Young given his poor defensive rating.
His tendency to allow opponents to attack inside helps explain why the Hawks rank 25th in opposing points in the paint.
So Rose gives New York a significant upgrade at point guard and, stylistically, is primed to thrive at what he does best tonight.
The Verdict
Indiana will keep up its hot scoring streak by thriving inside against Chicago’s weak and injury-ridden interior defense.
Defensively, the Pacer ball-screen defense and interior resistance will remain stout against a Bull offense missing versatility.
New York will live in the paint, exactly as it wants to do, given Atlanta’s inability to defend the paint.
Likewise, the Knicks have the structure and personnel to undermine what the Hawks want to do most offensively.
Best Bet: Parlay Pacers -5.5 at -108 & Knicks +1.5 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
