Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl Michigan Vs Florida January 1st 2016

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Was hoping we could get a discussion going about a really interesting match up in 2016 .... The Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl featuring: Michigan Wolverines vs. Florida Gators.

Current Line and Total as I type this:

Florida +4
Michigan -4
Over/Under 38.5

The game opened at Michigan -4 and I believe the total opened 42.5 (using a source, as I don't recall the actual open)

Discuss
 
i'll be on michigan...but would feel better about it had they not been completely bent over by the buckeyes the last game of the season.

if the total was mid to low 40s, i'd be on the under though. two solid defenses, that's for sure.
 
likely no Jabrill Peppers for Michigan, who also was a big part of the offense and return game the past few weeks.
 
Take this for what it's worth. McElwain is using at least some of the practices leading up to the bowl as a "second spring camp." He gave all seniors and juniors who may enter the draft a few days off the week before Christmas and used those practices to see who out of the freshman are ready to step up next year. Could mean nothing. Could mean he doesn't care too much about this game.
See article here:

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/college/sec/university-of-florida/article51569985.html
 
ESPN is reporting Gator starting right tackle Mason Halter will not play or attend bowl. He started all 13 games this year.
 
Simply, Two great defenses, putting big focus on qb position. Huge edge to Michigan. Harbaugh and staff several weeks to prepare gets my money. If this game were immediately after TOSU woodshedding, I'd be concerned. With extra time to get over humiliation I think the kids will be over it plus many are playing for jobs in 2016 as harbaugh's begins in integrate his own recruits. I don't see a hangover. Big play for me. Florida is almost unwatchable at times on offense- and will be so again vs elite defense. Imo
 
tee*dub said:
Simply, Two great defenses, putting big focus on qb position. Huge edge to Michigan. Harbaugh and staff several weeks to prepare gets my money. If this game were immediately after TOSU woodshedding, I'd be concerned. With extra time to get over humiliation I think the kids will be over it plus many are playing for jobs in 2016 as harbaugh's begins in integrate his own recruits. I don't see a hangover. Big play for me. Florida is almost unwatchable at times on offense- and will be so again vs elite defense. Imo
Click to expand...

Would agree with a lot of this, specifically the bolded. Even with the major edge at QB, I really do think it will be tough sledding for the Mich offense here as well as Florida's defense is super nasty. I think the Mich OL is going to have a really hard time getting anything going on the ground and there's quite a few early day draftees roaming the UF secondary. Peppers a big loss if he can't go, I see him and Callaway for UF as being major x-factors in what rates to be a super physical grinder and those are really the only guys I would say are matchup issues in terms of their verstaility in the return game too. I would lean Mich as well but preferred the under at open
 
Quick thoughts, more after work...

-Peppers prolly out. At very least he would be out on offense.

-Rudock is apparently 100% and ready to go

-Florida starting like 3 true OL, correct? One has started many games while others have played a little bit?

-Tough to get info on Michigan but rumor is that P O'Neill might have torn ACL. You might only remember him from MSU gaffe but he was a heck of a weapon this year.


Still lean Florida tt under...hoping for a 17.5...I can see 16.5 knowing my luck...
 
tee*dub said:
Simply, Two great defenses, putting big focus on qb position. Huge edge to Michigan. Harbaugh and staff several weeks to prepare gets my money. If this game were immediately after TOSU woodshedding, I'd be concerned. With extra time to get over humiliation I think the kids will be over it plus many are playing for jobs in 2016 as harbaugh's begins in integrate his own recruits. I don't see a hangover. Big play for me. Florida is almost unwatchable at times on offense- and will be so again vs elite defense. Imo
Click to expand...


:shake:
 
Think of this Michigan team like the Michigan late-nineties to early to late 2000's teams...

Suck against spreads...

Cap their defense that way...even with injuries...
 
Funny you mention...that Auburn / Memphis game yesterday timed in at 3 hours, 4 minutes. Probably the shortest CFB game in the last 10 years.
 
B.A.R. said:
Quick thoughts, more after work...

-Peppers prolly out. At very least he would be out on offense.

-Rudock is apparently 100% and ready to go

-Florida starting like 3 true OL, correct? One has started many games while others have played a little bit?

-Tough to get info on Michigan but rumor is that P O'Neill might have torn ACL. You might only remember him from MSU gaffe but he was a heck of a weapon this year.


Still lean Florida tt under...hoping for a 17.5...I can see 16.5 knowing my luck...
Click to expand...

I've got an early look at the prop market and was close to adding something last night but wanted to dig a little more first. Have you read anything on what the carry distribution may look like or do you have any guesses? D you think Smith gets those extra 4/5 carries or someone else?
 
CrimsonK said:
I've got an early look at the prop market and was close to adding something last night but wanted to dig a little more first. Have you read anything on what the carry distribution may look like or do you have any guesses? D you think Smith gets those extra 4/5 carries or someone else?
Click to expand...

Nothing definitive at all.

Green didn't make trip.

Drake just isn't the same.

Frosh Higdon, I dunno.

Ty is starting to get back in good graces but who knows if he touches ball tomorrow.


----------

I get the angle there.

Michigan pretty much started using the quick passes to WR as extended running plays. We will see how that gets defended.

If they have a lead in 4th then Smith will get a lot of carries. That is when he is most effective.
 
I actually went under on SMith's rushing prop. If he gets those 5 extra carries that Peppers was getting then I think the bet could be in jeopardy but even at 15 carries I don't think he gets there. He has had 10, 13, 12, 15, 9 carries his last 5 and only went over that number once against Rutgers and now faces the best defense he will all season. Super bold prediction, Mich finishes with less than 50 total rushing yards
 
CrimsonK said:
I actually went under on SMith's rushing prop. If he gets those 5 extra carries that Peppers was getting then I think the bet could be in jeopardy but even at 15 carries I don't think he gets there. He has had 10, 13, 12, 15, 9 carries his last 5 and only went over that number once against Rutgers and now faces the best defense he will all season. Super bold prediction, Mich finishes with less than 50 total rushing yards
Click to expand...

Not to bold.

I can say that the RB's themselves won't get there, lol.
 
Not sure about this, but I would assume Big Ten favorites vs SEC teams in bowls are very rare. At first glance, Michigan seems like the right side, but this isn't the same Michigan that was running roughshod over people in late September/October. Michigan catches a break with the OL situation for Florida, otherwise I would expect Taylor to have a nice game, as Michigan has really been gashed on the ground in their games late in the year.

I also have a feeling that McElwain will come up with something in this one to prop up that passing offense. At the end of the day, I'm still sitting this one out because I can't in good conscience back a team with QB play as bad as Harris has been, and I still have an affinity for the Harbaugh factor, but a Florida win wouldn't surprise me in the least.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Not sure about this, but I would assume Big Ten favorites vs SEC teams in bowls are very rare. At first glance, Michigan seems like the right side, but this isn't the same Michigan that was running roughshod over people in late September/October. Michigan catches a break with the OL situation for Florida, otherwise I would expect Taylor to have a nice game, as Michigan has really been gashed on the ground in their games late in the year.

I also have a feeling that McElwain will come up with something in this one to prop up that passing offense. At the end of the day, I'm still sitting this one out because I can't in good conscience back a team with QB play as bad as Harris has been, and I still have an affinity for the Harbaugh factor, but a Florida win wouldn't surprise me in the least.
Click to expand...

Has occurred 10 times since 2000 (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS overall but 4-1 SU and ATS last 5 occasions).

Spread is telling, imo.
 
feel like Florida's D-line is one of the few that could hold water to Bama's. Treon will prob gift them field position all day, but still played Mich TT under 21.5 -115. GL all
 
Br@ssknux said:
Not sure about this, but I would assume Big Ten favorites vs SEC teams in bowls are very rare. At first glance, Michigan seems like the right side, but this isn't the same Michigan that was running roughshod over people in late September/October. Michigan catches a break with the OL situation for Florida, otherwise I would expect Taylor to have a nice game, as Michigan has really been gashed on the ground in their games late in the year.

I also have a feeling that McElwain will come up with something in this one to prop up that passing offense. At the end of the day, I'm still sitting this one out because I can't in good conscience back a team with QB play as bad as Harris has been, and I still have an affinity for the Harbaugh factor, but a Florida win wouldn't surprise me in the least.
Click to expand...

IU and OSU run games. To be expected.
 
CrimsonK said:
I actually went under on SMith's rushing prop. If he gets those 5 extra carries that Peppers was getting then I think the bet could be in jeopardy but even at 15 carries I don't think he gets there. He has had 10, 13, 12, 15, 9 carries his last 5 and only went over that number once against Rutgers and now faces the best defense he will all season. Super bold prediction, Mich finishes with less than 50 total rushing yards
Click to expand...

I have such fat fingers sometimes, I meant they won't rush for 250. lol Yikes. Sometimes you just whiff
 
Never saw it coming. Smith and Drake fully healthy I guess and best OL blocked all year running. Plus they are playing the SEC east lol. Garbage.
 
Word to the wise, remember to hit 'submit' after you enter your password on plays... If you get my drift...
 
CYLP--lUQAAW6et.jpg:large
 
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