Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois Preview Article

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Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois: Week 10 College Football Game Preview




Buffalo Bulls vs. Northern Illinois Huskies
Wednesday, November 4, 2020 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2) at Huskie Stadium in DeKalb, Illinois




Northern Illinois Offense vs. Buffalo Defense

Northern Illinois quarterback Ross Bowers promises to improve in his second year in the Husky offense under coordinator Eric Eidsness.

The thing to note is that, last year, there existed no correlation between the number of times Bowers would get sacked in a game and his passing performance.

This lack of correlation is important because every bettor who is backing Buffalo wants to cite its pass rush.

Buffalo does have a really promising pass rush on paper. But so what? Yes, Bowers will get sacked a few times. But what will happen when he stays upright?

Bowers has a cannon for an arm and plenty of high-quality pass-catchers to locate.

Three of Bowers’ top four pass-catchers — Cole Tucker, Daniel Crawford, and Tyrice Richie -- return from last season. He already has chemistry with them.

They’ll navigate a Buffalo secondary that misses two crucial pieces from last year.

One of those pieces is safety Joey Banks, who led the team in both tackles and interceptions.

Secondly, Devon Russell is a big loss for the Bulls. He was their top cornerback last season.

With a strong group of younger talent behind an offensive line that features a reliable mix of size and starting experience, the Husky run game will keep Buffalo honest.

Of many tailbacks to note, Harrison Waylee merits enthusiasm given his performance in practice.

He injects explosiveness into a group that possesses some bulk and physicality with guys like Rondarius Gregory.

In its front seven, Buffalo misses Ledarius Mack who had accumulated 11 tackles for loss to go along with seven sacks last season.

With James Patterson transitioning to middle linebacker, Buffalo’s front seven also plays a bit of musical chairs.

Buffalo Offense vs. Northern Illinois Defense

When people cite the losses on the Husky defensive line, they are a bit misleading. Those losses are most prominent at the defensive end position where Northern Illinois does not get worse and can only improve.

This unit will only need to be adequate in order to help the superb group of returning linebackers behind it.

At defensive tackle, the Huskies will be more than adequate thanks to the services of senior Weston Kramer.

Kramer has been a staple starter who ably penetrates into opposing backfields in order to wreak havoc. He has 9.5 tackles for loss in 39 career games for Northern Illinois.

Additional guys besides Kramer enjoy greater opportunity to build off of lesser playing time.

At defensive end, one compelling breakout candidate is Cam Mattox who flashed some prowess in pass rush and generally also in pursuit against Nebraska and Vanderbilt.

The Huskies are strongest at the linebacker position where they return their top six, all of whom have accrued significant starting or playing experience. This positional strength reflects continuity from last season.

Their strength at linebacker is important because Buffalo’s strength is at the running back position.

Given their style and returning personnel, one may expect the Bulls to once again own the nation’s fifth-highest run percentage.

This one-dimensionality will hurt them against Northern Illinois’ front seven.

They do not have the certainty at quarterback that inspires confidence in their ability to keep the Huskies honest defensively.

On the one hand, there’s Kyle Vantrease who is more of a pocket passer. He’s more likely to stand and deliver throws from the pocket.

On the other hand, there’s Matt Myers. Myers failed to complete half of his pass attempts last season.

But he is more skilled than Vantrease in the RPO game. He can move and he tries to use his mobility as a weapon in various ways.

Their disparity could reflect a partial difficulty in establishing the offense’s identity because each quarterback gears the offense differently by adding a distinct stylistic dimension.

Vantrease is not very efficient as a passer himself. His pass-catching crew also shows a conspicuous drop-off in ability after Antonio Nunn. Nobody else will step up and make plays or otherwise flex meaningful chemistry with the quarterback.

The Huskies will contain Buffalo’s flimsy pass attack with underrated cornerback Dillon Thomas who promises to blossom in his second year at the position.

Though Mark Aitken won the job coming out of camp last season, former three-star prospect Zhamaine March may earn the other starting role at cornerback.

The Verdict

With a multi-dimensional offense, playmaking and able variety at both running back and wide receiver, and a strong-armed, clear starter at quarterback, Northern Illinois distinguishes itself positively from Buffalo’s offense.

Defensively, the Husky front seven will punish the Bulls for their focus on running the ball while the trio of starting-caliber Husky corners ensure the unthreatening quality of Buffalo’s pass attack

For the above reasons, take the Huskies as they look to win their 13th in a row against the Bulls.


Best Bet: Huskies +10 at -115 with Bovada
 
I haven't thought about this game yet. Seems perception is that NIU is swirling around the drain while Buffalo gets plenty of respect.

I'll just add this, because it is easy and takes no time really and does support your play. NIU last year was 3-0 ATS and SU as dogs in MAC play (WM+9 won 17-14, at Tol+2.5 won 31-28, at Ohio+6 won 39-36). In 2018 before Hammock, NIU was 2-0 ATS and SU as MAC dogs (Buff+3.5 MAC Title won 30-29, at EM+3.5 won 26-23). Pretty good recent dog history.

Buffalo was just 1-3 ATS as away fav last year, losing 3 outright.
 
You know what really sucks bout playing at the Illinios casinos now? You can’t bet on any the freaking Illinios teams!! Saved me vs wiscy but guess I gonna have to load some money into a offshore again cause that blows, lol.
 
Road fav being what it is, hard to like much about this NIU team really. Hopefully they get a year 1 to year 2 jump, but man they are young on D.

No expectation that Myers will improve from starting as a freshman to year 2, assuming he starts this game? He was week 1 starter last year.
 
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