Our Top NFL Week 9 Parlay: Best Bets for Sunday's Games
Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 1 p.m. ET at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville
Home Advantage?
The NFL odds have Buffalo favored only by two touchdowns because the game takes place in Jacksonville.
But I am struggling to see what kind of advantage the Jaguars have in playing at home, such that they should be dogged by fewer points.
It is not uncommon for Northern-based teams to struggle with the Florida heat and humidity. But Sunday's game will be played in 60-degree weather per current weather forecasts.
Will Buffalo struggle with the noise of Jacksonville's fan base? I think Jaguar fans would rather be watching the Gators! TIAA Bank Field averages the fourth-lowest attendance per game.
The following stat shows that oddsmakers fail to account for the absence of advantage offered by Jacksonville's home field to the Jaguars: the Jags are 1-3 ATS at home this year. The one ATS home victory did not take place in Jacksonville, but in London.
The Odds
Currently, Buffalo is favored by 14 or 14.5 points at the different sports betting sites.
Regardless of where this game is played, this number may seem high.
A breakdown of Jacksonville's schedule shows why it isn't.
The Jaguars lost by fewer than 14 points against three teams: Denver, Cincinnati, and Arizona.
Arizona was hindered by having to play in a 1:00 time slot despite the fact that the Cardinals are based out west.
The Bengals were coming off a big divisional win against rival Pittsburgh. The Bengals managed to beat Jacksonville despite sleepwalking and falling behind 14-0 before halftime.
Denver is 4-4, but its wins came against the struggling Giants, Jets, Football Team, and Jaguars.
So, Jacksonville lost by fewer than two touchdowns only against bad teams or teams in uniquely tough situations.
Jaguar Offense vs. Bill Defense
One sad reality for the Jaguar offense is that its biggest name is a rookie who has hardly established himself in the NFL.
A glaring problem with quarterback Trevor Lawrence is his tendency to turn the ball over. Currently, Lawrence ranks 29th in limiting his own interceptions. He has thrown nine, which is one more than his touchdown total.
Lawrence is sure to throw more interceptions going up against a Bill defense against which opponents throw the highest average number of interceptions per game.
Jaguar turnovers will give the sizzling Bill offense bonus opportunities to score in order to win by more points.
Jacksonville owns the seventh-highest pass-play percentage partly because it easily falls behind in games, which compels Lawrence to keep passing in an attempt to keep pace with the opponent.
This tendency will result in more turnovers. It will otherwise result in more incompletions against a Bill defense that easily ranks number one in limiting the opposing team's passer rating.
Lawrence already has one of the worst passer ratings among NFL quarterbacks. He'll struggle to navigate a Bill secondary that is spearheaded by cornerback Tre'Davious White who boasts one All-Pro and two Pro Bowl selections to his name.
Buffalo Offense vs. Jacksonville Defense
In complete contrast to Buffalo, Jacksonville ranks last in limiting opposing passer rating.
Like last year, the Jaguar pass defense finds itself bereft of quality personnel in the secondary.
This fact makes Buffalo a nightmare matchup for Jacksonville because the Bill offense hardly features running backs Zack Moss and Devin Singletary.
Instead, the Bills constantly let quarterback Josh Allen go to work. In particular, he loves to find Stefon Diggs, although he does a fair job of spreading the ball around to Cole Beasley, tight ends, and other pass-catchers.
Total Verdict
Jacksonville will, like last week, struggle to reach double digits.
The "under" is already a consistent feature of Jaguar games as it has hit five times out of seven.
Without having some kind of situational angle that would cast the Bills as extra motivated for this game, I can't expect them to accomplish all the necessary scoring by themselves.
Therefore, you should add the "under" to your parlay with Buffalo.
Best Bet: Parlay Bills -14.5 at -105 & Under 48.5 at -105 at +274 odds with BetOnline
Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 1 p.m. ET at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville
Home Advantage?
The NFL odds have Buffalo favored only by two touchdowns because the game takes place in Jacksonville.
But I am struggling to see what kind of advantage the Jaguars have in playing at home, such that they should be dogged by fewer points.
It is not uncommon for Northern-based teams to struggle with the Florida heat and humidity. But Sunday's game will be played in 60-degree weather per current weather forecasts.
Will Buffalo struggle with the noise of Jacksonville's fan base? I think Jaguar fans would rather be watching the Gators! TIAA Bank Field averages the fourth-lowest attendance per game.
The following stat shows that oddsmakers fail to account for the absence of advantage offered by Jacksonville's home field to the Jaguars: the Jags are 1-3 ATS at home this year. The one ATS home victory did not take place in Jacksonville, but in London.
The Odds
Currently, Buffalo is favored by 14 or 14.5 points at the different sports betting sites.
Regardless of where this game is played, this number may seem high.
A breakdown of Jacksonville's schedule shows why it isn't.
The Jaguars lost by fewer than 14 points against three teams: Denver, Cincinnati, and Arizona.
Arizona was hindered by having to play in a 1:00 time slot despite the fact that the Cardinals are based out west.
The Bengals were coming off a big divisional win against rival Pittsburgh. The Bengals managed to beat Jacksonville despite sleepwalking and falling behind 14-0 before halftime.
Denver is 4-4, but its wins came against the struggling Giants, Jets, Football Team, and Jaguars.
So, Jacksonville lost by fewer than two touchdowns only against bad teams or teams in uniquely tough situations.
Jaguar Offense vs. Bill Defense
One sad reality for the Jaguar offense is that its biggest name is a rookie who has hardly established himself in the NFL.
A glaring problem with quarterback Trevor Lawrence is his tendency to turn the ball over. Currently, Lawrence ranks 29th in limiting his own interceptions. He has thrown nine, which is one more than his touchdown total.
Lawrence is sure to throw more interceptions going up against a Bill defense against which opponents throw the highest average number of interceptions per game.
Jaguar turnovers will give the sizzling Bill offense bonus opportunities to score in order to win by more points.
Jacksonville owns the seventh-highest pass-play percentage partly because it easily falls behind in games, which compels Lawrence to keep passing in an attempt to keep pace with the opponent.
This tendency will result in more turnovers. It will otherwise result in more incompletions against a Bill defense that easily ranks number one in limiting the opposing team's passer rating.
Lawrence already has one of the worst passer ratings among NFL quarterbacks. He'll struggle to navigate a Bill secondary that is spearheaded by cornerback Tre'Davious White who boasts one All-Pro and two Pro Bowl selections to his name.
Buffalo Offense vs. Jacksonville Defense
In complete contrast to Buffalo, Jacksonville ranks last in limiting opposing passer rating.
Like last year, the Jaguar pass defense finds itself bereft of quality personnel in the secondary.
This fact makes Buffalo a nightmare matchup for Jacksonville because the Bill offense hardly features running backs Zack Moss and Devin Singletary.
Instead, the Bills constantly let quarterback Josh Allen go to work. In particular, he loves to find Stefon Diggs, although he does a fair job of spreading the ball around to Cole Beasley, tight ends, and other pass-catchers.
Total Verdict
Jacksonville will, like last week, struggle to reach double digits.
The "under" is already a consistent feature of Jaguar games as it has hit five times out of seven.
Without having some kind of situational angle that would cast the Bills as extra motivated for this game, I can't expect them to accomplish all the necessary scoring by themselves.
Therefore, you should add the "under" to your parlay with Buffalo.
Best Bet: Parlay Bills -14.5 at -105 & Under 48.5 at -105 at +274 odds with BetOnline
