Bucks vs. Thunder NBA Cup Championship Game Best Bets
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 at 8:30 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Arena
Milwaukee's Great Form
Folks grew disposed to count out the Bucks after their slow start to their season.
However, they have resoundingly turned things around.
Milwaukee enters this game having won ten of its last twelve games.
It lost one game to Atlanta and another game, by only six points, in Boston.
Recent History
The Bucks demonstrate the great form that is necessary to upset the Thunder tonight.
Their recent history shows that the Bucks are capable of doing this.
Last year, the Bucks won their first meeting against OKC by 18.
While they lost the rematch, we have seen this year that the Thunder are great in rematch situations. Perhaps more importantly, they missed both of their stars, Giannis and Dame Lillard, in the rematch.
Giannis and Company
It's not reasonable to place evaluative importance in games in which Giannis is absent because the annual MVP candidate is a difference-maker.
This year, he is leading his team in both points and rebounds, of which he averages 32.7 and 11.5, respectively.
Giannis is an athletic force inside the paint who is tough for any defense to contain.
Largely because defenses need to devote extra resources to containing Giannis, he is the best player in the NBA right now at accumulating assists that conclude in a made three-pointer.
Overall, he is second on Milwaukee with 6.1 assists per game.
During the Bucks' strong stretch of play, he is getting great support in the form of made three-pointers.
In their last 15 games, the Bucks rank top-four both in three-point percentage and in made three-pointers, thus providing a perimeter game to complement the inside attack that is spearheaded by Giannis.
Giannis has several supporters here, who help him increase his assist total.
For example, Gary Trent Jr. and AJ Green are both shooting well above 40 percent from behind the arc in December.
Oklahoma City's Outmatched Defense
I contend that especially Giannis will be too much for the Thunder contain, not to mention that they also have to worry about Giannis' sharpshooting teammates and, of course, fellow star Dame Lillard, who averages 25.7 points per game.
Now, OKC is known to have a strong defense, so it might seem unusual to criticize it.
While, overall, the Thunder do have a great defense. My point here is that the way in which the Thunder defense is solid is irrelevant in this matchup.
As handicappers, we can't simply expect a defense to play well because of its overall statistics. We have to account for specific matchups.
Overall, the Thunder are great on defense because they ably account for the way in which most NBA offenses function.
Most NBA offenses rely on being versatile and on making three-pointers rather than on having size and strength.
Accordingly, the Thunder defend ball-screens excellently. They use their versatility on defense to switch in order to stay latched on to opposing ball-handlers who also operate as potential three-point shooters.
Because they are versatile, though, they are small. They have one player in their starting lineup who is above 6'6.
Milwaukee is a rare team that does rely on size and strength, especially with the physical menace Giannis and fellow well-sized inside scorers Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez.
OKC's undersized defense is not going to be able to rely on its ball-screen defense, because the Bucks rank toward the bottom in ball-screen play frequency.
Instead, it is going to struggle against Milwaukee's physical strength inside, especially because the latter will enable the Bucks to also continue to thrive from deep.
Further Consequences of Milwaukee's Offensive Success
Milwaukee's success on offense, reliant as it is on size and strength, will be efficient and will also allow it to thrive on the glass.
With the Bucks making baskets instead of missing them, they will keep the Thunder from doing what they want to do on offense.
The Thunder want to go out in transition — they rely on transition plays with the NBA's fifth-highest frequency — but depend on missed baskets from their opponent and on grabbing rebounds in order to attack in transition.
Stated differently, a significant consequence of Milwaukee's success on offense will be that this will be a half-court game and not the up-and-down game that Oklahoma City wants.
Underdog Milwaukee will unequivocally be the more comfortable team in this matchup.
Stopping Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Company
We will see tonight that theThunder are not a good half-court team.
They don't shoot particularly well, as they rank in the bottom half in three-point percentage.
But they also won't score inside against a Milwaukee team that is stacked with great interior defenders.
Giannis is an annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate largely because of his help-side defense.
His athleticism and particularly strong form at the moment have helped him amass a combined total of eleven blocks in his last three games.
Lopez is also a well-reputed rim protector, for which reason this seven-footer has been an All-NBA Defensive First Team selection.
Thunder backers will want to say that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is just too tough to stop.
But when the Bucks with Giannis beat OKC last year, they held Gilgeous-Alexander to twelve points and two assists and forced him to commit four turnovers.
Their aggressive help defense made Gilgeous-Alexander a non-factor, and he lacks sufficient strength in his supporting cast to compensate for his lack of productivity as a scorer and distributor. OKC will also miss its third-leading scorer, Chet Holmgren, who with his strong three-point shooting could have helped space the floor for Gilgeous-Alexander.
Takeaway
The Bucks have already proven able to dominate the Thunder because they match up uniquely well against them.
The ways in which the Thunder are normally good on defense are irrelevant in this matchup — oddsmakers favor the Thunder because they are normally good and because they don't account for matchup specifics, which is where Milwaukee shows a clear advantage.
Milwaukee's reliance on size and strength positions it to exploit what is an undersized defense that will fail to account for the Bucks' array of inside attackers and for their additional ability, predicated on their interior scoring prowess, to rely on numerous in-form sharpshooters.
On defense, the Bucks already have an effective plan for Gilgeous-Alexander, but they also simply match up well against the Thunder defense.
Their success on offense will help make this a half-court game. Unable to run up and down, the Thunder will rely a lot on their inefficient three-point shooting and on the futile endeavor to score on Giannis and Lopez inside.
Whereas the Thunder will struggle to score, Milwaukee will score with ease and win this game despite being the underdog.
Best Bet: Bucks +5 at -110 with BetOnline
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 at 8:30 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Arena
Milwaukee's Great Form
Folks grew disposed to count out the Bucks after their slow start to their season.
However, they have resoundingly turned things around.
Milwaukee enters this game having won ten of its last twelve games.
It lost one game to Atlanta and another game, by only six points, in Boston.
Recent History
The Bucks demonstrate the great form that is necessary to upset the Thunder tonight.
Their recent history shows that the Bucks are capable of doing this.
Last year, the Bucks won their first meeting against OKC by 18.
While they lost the rematch, we have seen this year that the Thunder are great in rematch situations. Perhaps more importantly, they missed both of their stars, Giannis and Dame Lillard, in the rematch.
Giannis and Company
It's not reasonable to place evaluative importance in games in which Giannis is absent because the annual MVP candidate is a difference-maker.
This year, he is leading his team in both points and rebounds, of which he averages 32.7 and 11.5, respectively.
Giannis is an athletic force inside the paint who is tough for any defense to contain.
Largely because defenses need to devote extra resources to containing Giannis, he is the best player in the NBA right now at accumulating assists that conclude in a made three-pointer.
Overall, he is second on Milwaukee with 6.1 assists per game.
During the Bucks' strong stretch of play, he is getting great support in the form of made three-pointers.
In their last 15 games, the Bucks rank top-four both in three-point percentage and in made three-pointers, thus providing a perimeter game to complement the inside attack that is spearheaded by Giannis.
Giannis has several supporters here, who help him increase his assist total.
For example, Gary Trent Jr. and AJ Green are both shooting well above 40 percent from behind the arc in December.
Oklahoma City's Outmatched Defense
I contend that especially Giannis will be too much for the Thunder contain, not to mention that they also have to worry about Giannis' sharpshooting teammates and, of course, fellow star Dame Lillard, who averages 25.7 points per game.
Now, OKC is known to have a strong defense, so it might seem unusual to criticize it.
While, overall, the Thunder do have a great defense. My point here is that the way in which the Thunder defense is solid is irrelevant in this matchup.
As handicappers, we can't simply expect a defense to play well because of its overall statistics. We have to account for specific matchups.
Overall, the Thunder are great on defense because they ably account for the way in which most NBA offenses function.
Most NBA offenses rely on being versatile and on making three-pointers rather than on having size and strength.
Accordingly, the Thunder defend ball-screens excellently. They use their versatility on defense to switch in order to stay latched on to opposing ball-handlers who also operate as potential three-point shooters.
Because they are versatile, though, they are small. They have one player in their starting lineup who is above 6'6.
Milwaukee is a rare team that does rely on size and strength, especially with the physical menace Giannis and fellow well-sized inside scorers Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez.
OKC's undersized defense is not going to be able to rely on its ball-screen defense, because the Bucks rank toward the bottom in ball-screen play frequency.
Instead, it is going to struggle against Milwaukee's physical strength inside, especially because the latter will enable the Bucks to also continue to thrive from deep.
Further Consequences of Milwaukee's Offensive Success
Milwaukee's success on offense, reliant as it is on size and strength, will be efficient and will also allow it to thrive on the glass.
With the Bucks making baskets instead of missing them, they will keep the Thunder from doing what they want to do on offense.
The Thunder want to go out in transition — they rely on transition plays with the NBA's fifth-highest frequency — but depend on missed baskets from their opponent and on grabbing rebounds in order to attack in transition.
Stated differently, a significant consequence of Milwaukee's success on offense will be that this will be a half-court game and not the up-and-down game that Oklahoma City wants.
Underdog Milwaukee will unequivocally be the more comfortable team in this matchup.
Stopping Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Company
We will see tonight that theThunder are not a good half-court team.
They don't shoot particularly well, as they rank in the bottom half in three-point percentage.
But they also won't score inside against a Milwaukee team that is stacked with great interior defenders.
Giannis is an annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate largely because of his help-side defense.
His athleticism and particularly strong form at the moment have helped him amass a combined total of eleven blocks in his last three games.
Lopez is also a well-reputed rim protector, for which reason this seven-footer has been an All-NBA Defensive First Team selection.
Thunder backers will want to say that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is just too tough to stop.
But when the Bucks with Giannis beat OKC last year, they held Gilgeous-Alexander to twelve points and two assists and forced him to commit four turnovers.
Their aggressive help defense made Gilgeous-Alexander a non-factor, and he lacks sufficient strength in his supporting cast to compensate for his lack of productivity as a scorer and distributor. OKC will also miss its third-leading scorer, Chet Holmgren, who with his strong three-point shooting could have helped space the floor for Gilgeous-Alexander.
Takeaway
The Bucks have already proven able to dominate the Thunder because they match up uniquely well against them.
The ways in which the Thunder are normally good on defense are irrelevant in this matchup — oddsmakers favor the Thunder because they are normally good and because they don't account for matchup specifics, which is where Milwaukee shows a clear advantage.
Milwaukee's reliance on size and strength positions it to exploit what is an undersized defense that will fail to account for the Bucks' array of inside attackers and for their additional ability, predicated on their interior scoring prowess, to rely on numerous in-form sharpshooters.
On defense, the Bucks already have an effective plan for Gilgeous-Alexander, but they also simply match up well against the Thunder defense.
Their success on offense will help make this a half-court game. Unable to run up and down, the Thunder will rely a lot on their inefficient three-point shooting and on the futile endeavor to score on Giannis and Lopez inside.
Whereas the Thunder will struggle to score, Milwaukee will score with ease and win this game despite being the underdog.
Best Bet: Bucks +5 at -110 with BetOnline
