Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for July 17
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Phoenix Suns
Saturday, July 17, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET (ABC) at Phoenix Suns Arena in Phoenix
The Importance of Rebounding
Rebounding is important because it can make up for an offense's lack of efficiency.
In other words, when teams get more rebounds, they get more shot attempts, which gives them a larger margin of error. The defense can do a better job guarding the basketball, while that defense's team still loses because it yields more scoring opportunities.
We just saw an example of what I am talking about. Milwaukee won and, as the favored team, covered the spread in Game 4 despite doing an awful job in shooting.
Most noticeably, the Bucks converted two of their 18 wide open three-point attempts.
This level of inefficiency represents a strong anomaly for the Bucks because their conversion rate on wide open three-point attempts in this postseason is 22 percent higher.
Teams will generally not win when they fail to take advantage of so many three-point shooting opportunities.
However, Milwaukee accrued 19 more field goal attempts largely because it won the offensive rebounding battle 17-5.
Milwaukee's Rebounding Edge
The Bucks' edge in rebounding in Game 4 is consistent with what they've been doing throughout the season on the offensive glass compared to Phoenix.
This season and postseason combined, Milwaukee ranks third in offensive rebounds per game while the Suns rank 28th in the category.
Milwaukee's offensive rebounding prowess has been surprising this season only for philosophical reasons.
Coach Budenholzer has not valued the offensive glass in previous seasons and in previous seasons as the coach of other teams.
But this year, he changed. He also acquired the right personnel and came to possess the right-sized and rightly skilled players in order to thrive in this aspect.
Jrue Holiday
Besides the Bucks converting only two of 18 wide open three-point attempts, another anomaly was the offensive play of Jrue Holiday.
After efficiently producing 21 points in Game 3, he made four of 20 field goal attempts in Game 4, scoring 13 points. He missed all five of his three-point attempts.
One must expect better from Holiday, whose field goal percentage this postseason is over twice as high as what it was in Game 4.
However, his value stems primarily from his on-ball defending.
He is the primary person responsible for Sun point guard Chris Paul producing his lowest scoring outputs of the series in each of the last two games.
Holiday is using his physicality -- as he did against Atlanta's Trae Young last round -- in order to constantly threaten Paul's ball-handling.
Holiday's physical traits and overall skill set explain why Paul is committing 4.3 turnovers per game in this series, over twice as many as he's committed in any other series in this postseason.
Paul's vulnerability to turning the ball over helps curb Phoenix's ability to develop a rhythm on offense. Likewise, the Suns are having more trouble getting into their offensive sets as Holiday harasses their point guard often all the way down the court.
Ball-Screen Defense
The two-time NBA All-Defensive first teamer's defensive prowess continues to show itself on ball-screens.
Paul loves to operate out of the pick-and-roll where he'll keep the ball and try to drive inside, pass, or, as he's often had to do, settle for a less comfortable jump shot.
But Holiday ranks nearly in the 90th percentile against the pick-and-roll ball handler play type. He is able to maintain sufficient defensive presence to bother Paul and make passing and shot-taking difficult for him.
Last year's Defensive Player of the Year, Giannis, is also helpful at containing ball screens and generally at being disruptive because Coach Budenholzer has been employing him less as a perimeter defender and more as a help-side defender.
So, when Paul induces a switch in order to face an inferior on-ball defender, Holiday is still effective and Giannis also helps out.
The Verdict
One may counter that I've neglected to mention star Devin Booker. But Giannis will make up for Booker's output by himself -- Giannis has scored 40+ points in two games this series.
The key to this game lies in Milwaukee's edge in shot opportunities and the diversely effective defending of guys like Holiday and Giannis.
Best Bet: Bucks +4 at -103 with Heritage
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Phoenix Suns
Saturday, July 17, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET (ABC) at Phoenix Suns Arena in Phoenix
The Importance of Rebounding
Rebounding is important because it can make up for an offense's lack of efficiency.
In other words, when teams get more rebounds, they get more shot attempts, which gives them a larger margin of error. The defense can do a better job guarding the basketball, while that defense's team still loses because it yields more scoring opportunities.
We just saw an example of what I am talking about. Milwaukee won and, as the favored team, covered the spread in Game 4 despite doing an awful job in shooting.
Most noticeably, the Bucks converted two of their 18 wide open three-point attempts.
This level of inefficiency represents a strong anomaly for the Bucks because their conversion rate on wide open three-point attempts in this postseason is 22 percent higher.
Teams will generally not win when they fail to take advantage of so many three-point shooting opportunities.
However, Milwaukee accrued 19 more field goal attempts largely because it won the offensive rebounding battle 17-5.
Milwaukee's Rebounding Edge
The Bucks' edge in rebounding in Game 4 is consistent with what they've been doing throughout the season on the offensive glass compared to Phoenix.
This season and postseason combined, Milwaukee ranks third in offensive rebounds per game while the Suns rank 28th in the category.
Milwaukee's offensive rebounding prowess has been surprising this season only for philosophical reasons.
Coach Budenholzer has not valued the offensive glass in previous seasons and in previous seasons as the coach of other teams.
But this year, he changed. He also acquired the right personnel and came to possess the right-sized and rightly skilled players in order to thrive in this aspect.
Jrue Holiday
Besides the Bucks converting only two of 18 wide open three-point attempts, another anomaly was the offensive play of Jrue Holiday.
After efficiently producing 21 points in Game 3, he made four of 20 field goal attempts in Game 4, scoring 13 points. He missed all five of his three-point attempts.
One must expect better from Holiday, whose field goal percentage this postseason is over twice as high as what it was in Game 4.
However, his value stems primarily from his on-ball defending.
He is the primary person responsible for Sun point guard Chris Paul producing his lowest scoring outputs of the series in each of the last two games.
Holiday is using his physicality -- as he did against Atlanta's Trae Young last round -- in order to constantly threaten Paul's ball-handling.
Holiday's physical traits and overall skill set explain why Paul is committing 4.3 turnovers per game in this series, over twice as many as he's committed in any other series in this postseason.
Paul's vulnerability to turning the ball over helps curb Phoenix's ability to develop a rhythm on offense. Likewise, the Suns are having more trouble getting into their offensive sets as Holiday harasses their point guard often all the way down the court.
Ball-Screen Defense
The two-time NBA All-Defensive first teamer's defensive prowess continues to show itself on ball-screens.
Paul loves to operate out of the pick-and-roll where he'll keep the ball and try to drive inside, pass, or, as he's often had to do, settle for a less comfortable jump shot.
But Holiday ranks nearly in the 90th percentile against the pick-and-roll ball handler play type. He is able to maintain sufficient defensive presence to bother Paul and make passing and shot-taking difficult for him.
Last year's Defensive Player of the Year, Giannis, is also helpful at containing ball screens and generally at being disruptive because Coach Budenholzer has been employing him less as a perimeter defender and more as a help-side defender.
So, when Paul induces a switch in order to face an inferior on-ball defender, Holiday is still effective and Giannis also helps out.
The Verdict
One may counter that I've neglected to mention star Devin Booker. But Giannis will make up for Booker's output by himself -- Giannis has scored 40+ points in two games this series.
The key to this game lies in Milwaukee's edge in shot opportunities and the diversely effective defending of guys like Holiday and Giannis.
Best Bet: Bucks +4 at -103 with Heritage
