Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for July 8
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Phoenix Suns
Thursday, July 8, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET (ABC) at Phoenix Suns Arena in Phoenix
Bad Reason To Like Milwaukee #1
The current flavor seems to be picking Milwaukee to bounce back in Game 2.
Those supporting Milwaukee offer bad reasons for their decision because the Bucks are a bad bet tonight.
One bad reason that Buck backers give is the expectation that the free throw differential will even out.
In Game 1, Phoenix attempted 10 more free throws than the Bucks and made 14 more free throws than them.
I agree that the free throw differential will likely benefit Phoenix less strongly as the series progresses.
But who's to say that the Bucks will benefit more heavily from the whistle in Game 2 than they did in Game 1? After all, the series is still in Phoenix, so the home team should continue to be favored by the refs.
Also, solely blaming the refs for the extant free throw disparity is unjustifiably reductive.
One reason why Phoenix dominated from the free throw line -- both in terms of makes and attempts -- is Devin Booker. Booker attempted and made 10 free throws in Game 1.
Booker's decisive performance in terms of getting to the free throw line and making free throws is nothing new for the super-talented and speedy guard.
Last series, for example, Booker made at least nine free throws in three different games.
Furthermore, when Buck supporters cite the free throw disparity, they conveniently neglect to point out other kinds of oddities in shot-making, as if free throw disparity was the only thing that could correct itself over time.
In Game 1, the Bucks and Suns procured a similar number of open and wide open three-point attempts -- in fact, Phoenix managed one more.
But the Bucks outperformed the Suns heavily especially in terms of converting wide open three-point attempts. They made 52.9-percent of them, whereas Phoenix only made 31.3-percent of them.
If Buck supporters want to claim that the free throw disparity will even itself out -- despite attacking studs like Booker and despite the series persisting in Phoenix -- then they have to be logically consistent and concede that the Bucks will cease to convert such a higher rate of open and especially wide open three-point attempts. The Bucks are also on the road, where they tend to convert a much lower rate of their three-point attempts.
Jae Crowder is so streaky, it's hard to expect him to perform well from deep, even though he repeatedly proves his capability as a three-point shooter. In any case, it seems extremely unlikely that Booker goes 1-for-8 from deep again.
It is very telling that Milwaukee was so superior from deep, yet still almost suffered a blowout.
While Phoenix thrived inside the arc, it can still exceed its Game 1 performance if Mikal Bridges, who was unusually inefficient in Game 1, converts more of the shot attempts that he rather typically finds unproblematic.
Defensive Quality and Depth
Milwaukee is limited by the number of guys who can offer something defensively.
In particular, Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez are supposed to contribute a significant amount of minutes in order to give other guys like Giannis -- who is at less than 100% with his recently incurred hyperextension in his knee -- a rest.
But Phoenix absolutely hunted Portis and Lopez when they were on defense, to the effect that both players accumulated an abysmal defensive rating in Game 1 -- Lopez's was 126 while Portis' was 133.3.
Both players' defensive ineptitude made it hard to keep them on the court. Yet Milwaukee lacks sufficient depth to avoid playing these guys.
So, while Buck backers want to cite Dario Saric's injury as somehow critically deleterious to Phoenix's chances, one has to point out the problematic potential of Milwaukee's healthy players like Portis and Lopez.
Ball-Screen Coverage
Some willfully simplistic Milwaukee optimists want to claim that the Bucks simply need to invest more effort into executing on defense, particularly when defending ball screens.
However, ball-screen defense has been an unrelenting issue for Coach Budenholzer's Bucks throughout this whole year and even before this season.
Coach Bud is notororious for favoring the drop coverage, which positions the off-ball big closer to the basket.
This kind of coverage enables the opposing ball-handler to attack the mid-range, like Atlanta's Trae Young did when he dropped 48 points in Game 1 of the last series against Milwaukee.
Knowing that Phoenix, collectively, is even more dangerous from the mid-range area, Coach Bud elected to do a lot of switching.
Such a response typifies Coach Bud's efforts to fix a troublesome ball-screen defense with solutions that exacerbate existing struggles.
Phoenix could hunt for the right match-ups by inducing Milwaukee to switch. Chris Paul's 32-point effort was largely a product of his ability to exploit the Buck switches.
Milwaukee has tried various ball-screen coverages to no avail.
Best Bet: Suns -5 at -108 with Heritage
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Phoenix Suns
Thursday, July 8, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET (ABC) at Phoenix Suns Arena in Phoenix
Bad Reason To Like Milwaukee #1
The current flavor seems to be picking Milwaukee to bounce back in Game 2.
Those supporting Milwaukee offer bad reasons for their decision because the Bucks are a bad bet tonight.
One bad reason that Buck backers give is the expectation that the free throw differential will even out.
In Game 1, Phoenix attempted 10 more free throws than the Bucks and made 14 more free throws than them.
I agree that the free throw differential will likely benefit Phoenix less strongly as the series progresses.
But who's to say that the Bucks will benefit more heavily from the whistle in Game 2 than they did in Game 1? After all, the series is still in Phoenix, so the home team should continue to be favored by the refs.
Also, solely blaming the refs for the extant free throw disparity is unjustifiably reductive.
One reason why Phoenix dominated from the free throw line -- both in terms of makes and attempts -- is Devin Booker. Booker attempted and made 10 free throws in Game 1.
Booker's decisive performance in terms of getting to the free throw line and making free throws is nothing new for the super-talented and speedy guard.
Last series, for example, Booker made at least nine free throws in three different games.
Furthermore, when Buck supporters cite the free throw disparity, they conveniently neglect to point out other kinds of oddities in shot-making, as if free throw disparity was the only thing that could correct itself over time.
In Game 1, the Bucks and Suns procured a similar number of open and wide open three-point attempts -- in fact, Phoenix managed one more.
But the Bucks outperformed the Suns heavily especially in terms of converting wide open three-point attempts. They made 52.9-percent of them, whereas Phoenix only made 31.3-percent of them.
If Buck supporters want to claim that the free throw disparity will even itself out -- despite attacking studs like Booker and despite the series persisting in Phoenix -- then they have to be logically consistent and concede that the Bucks will cease to convert such a higher rate of open and especially wide open three-point attempts. The Bucks are also on the road, where they tend to convert a much lower rate of their three-point attempts.
Jae Crowder is so streaky, it's hard to expect him to perform well from deep, even though he repeatedly proves his capability as a three-point shooter. In any case, it seems extremely unlikely that Booker goes 1-for-8 from deep again.
It is very telling that Milwaukee was so superior from deep, yet still almost suffered a blowout.
While Phoenix thrived inside the arc, it can still exceed its Game 1 performance if Mikal Bridges, who was unusually inefficient in Game 1, converts more of the shot attempts that he rather typically finds unproblematic.
Defensive Quality and Depth
Milwaukee is limited by the number of guys who can offer something defensively.
In particular, Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez are supposed to contribute a significant amount of minutes in order to give other guys like Giannis -- who is at less than 100% with his recently incurred hyperextension in his knee -- a rest.
But Phoenix absolutely hunted Portis and Lopez when they were on defense, to the effect that both players accumulated an abysmal defensive rating in Game 1 -- Lopez's was 126 while Portis' was 133.3.
Both players' defensive ineptitude made it hard to keep them on the court. Yet Milwaukee lacks sufficient depth to avoid playing these guys.
So, while Buck backers want to cite Dario Saric's injury as somehow critically deleterious to Phoenix's chances, one has to point out the problematic potential of Milwaukee's healthy players like Portis and Lopez.
Ball-Screen Coverage
Some willfully simplistic Milwaukee optimists want to claim that the Bucks simply need to invest more effort into executing on defense, particularly when defending ball screens.
However, ball-screen defense has been an unrelenting issue for Coach Budenholzer's Bucks throughout this whole year and even before this season.
Coach Bud is notororious for favoring the drop coverage, which positions the off-ball big closer to the basket.
This kind of coverage enables the opposing ball-handler to attack the mid-range, like Atlanta's Trae Young did when he dropped 48 points in Game 1 of the last series against Milwaukee.
Knowing that Phoenix, collectively, is even more dangerous from the mid-range area, Coach Bud elected to do a lot of switching.
Such a response typifies Coach Bud's efforts to fix a troublesome ball-screen defense with solutions that exacerbate existing struggles.
Phoenix could hunt for the right match-ups by inducing Milwaukee to switch. Chris Paul's 32-point effort was largely a product of his ability to exploit the Buck switches.
Milwaukee has tried various ball-screen coverages to no avail.
Best Bet: Suns -5 at -108 with Heritage
