Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for July 6
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Phoenix Suns
Tuesday, July 6, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET (ABC) at Phoenix Suns Arena in Phoenix
Giannis' Injury
After landing on his knee awkwardly, such that it bent the wrong way, Milwaukee star Giannis missed the final two games of his team's series against Atlanta.
Giannis' hyperextension in his left knee has been sufficiently downplayed to generate the impression in some that he may be on the brink of returning.
However, the reality of his chances to return -- even at less than 100% -- seems to be different given the extent of his injury.
His knee injury is at least serious enough to warrant his being listed as 'doubtful' for tonight's game.
You should not expect Giannis on the court tonight. Even if he does return, Milwaukee could be worse off for it because of the tendency in Milwaukee's offense to be bogged down by Giannis' proclivity to slowly operate in the paint in the half-court.
Plus, as we just saw with Chris Paul in Phoenix's series against L.A., it is hard to return to a lineup after missing a couple games.
No matter how you look at it, the situation surrounding Giannis is a negative one for Milwaukee's chances.
Giannis' Importance
Even mostly with Giannis, the Buck offense ranks 11th out of 16 playoff teams in offensive rating. Now the Bucks have to face a Sun team that has possessed one of the best defenses throughout the regular season and playoffs.
Giannis' impact will be felt most acutely on the defensive side of the ball, where he has garnered multiple accolades in recent history.
He has been named an NBA All-Defense first teamer three times in his career. All three times came in the last three seasons, including this one. Last year, Giannis was also named Defensive Player of the Year.
Individually, Milwaukee lacks anybody with Giannis' defensive reputation. No other Buck defender possesses his help-side ability, his disruptive length, his athleticism, and his overall defensive skill set.
PJ Tucker and Khris Middleton's Defense
It is true that other Buck players have stepped up defensively in these playoffs.
One notable player is PJ Tucker, who performed well at times against Net superstar Kevin Durant.
Despite the difficulty level of Tucker's assignments, he boasts an excellent defensive rating, although he benefitted from referees allowing him to play more physically in Milwaukee.
But if the Buck defense switches on ball-screens -- as it started doing more often during the regular season and continued doing during the playoffs -- the power forward would constitute a liability especially against Sun star Devin Booker, who is a quick guard.
Even when Khris Middleton tries to stay in front of Booker -- while Jrue Holiday guards Chris Paul -- many comment on Middleton's lack of lateral agility, which is problematic against the speedy Booker.
Drop Coverage
Offensively, Phoenix is known for being inclined to attempt mid-range jumpers, especially with Paul and Booker.
Out of every playoff team, the Suns are attempting the second-most field goals per game in the 10-14 foot range.
Against ball-screens, the Bucks are known for employing drop coverage.
This conservative style of ball-screen defense, where the initial off-ball defender sags off the opposing ball-handler to position himself closer to the basket, makes the defense more vulnerable to the mid-range.
As measured by opposing field goal attempts and opposing field goal efficiency, Milwaukee is one of the worst teams at defending shot attempts from 10-14 feet from the basket.
Trends
I have loyally insisted on fading the Bucks in Game 1 of a series and I have zero reason to stop doing so now.
Last year, the Bucks shockingly lost to the 8 seed Orlando in Game 1 of that series and then failed to come close to covering the spread in Game 1 against Miami.
This year, Milwaukee narrowly beat Miami in overtime in Game 1, even though Miami turned out to be a vastly inferior squad.
Then, in Game 1 against the Nets, the Bucks again failed to come close to covering the spread.
Most recently, in Game 1 against Atlanta, Milwaukee again lost straight-up against a heavily underdogged team.
Whereas, this year alone, the Bucks are 0-3 ATS in Game 1, the Suns are 3-0 ATS in Game 1.
Moreover, the extra rest will benefit Phoenix. Home teams with over two days' rest are enjoying 13-0 SU and ATS runs in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
Best Bet: Suns -6 at -115 with BetOnline
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Phoenix Suns
Tuesday, July 6, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET (ABC) at Phoenix Suns Arena in Phoenix
Giannis' Injury
After landing on his knee awkwardly, such that it bent the wrong way, Milwaukee star Giannis missed the final two games of his team's series against Atlanta.
Giannis' hyperextension in his left knee has been sufficiently downplayed to generate the impression in some that he may be on the brink of returning.
However, the reality of his chances to return -- even at less than 100% -- seems to be different given the extent of his injury.
His knee injury is at least serious enough to warrant his being listed as 'doubtful' for tonight's game.
You should not expect Giannis on the court tonight. Even if he does return, Milwaukee could be worse off for it because of the tendency in Milwaukee's offense to be bogged down by Giannis' proclivity to slowly operate in the paint in the half-court.
Plus, as we just saw with Chris Paul in Phoenix's series against L.A., it is hard to return to a lineup after missing a couple games.
No matter how you look at it, the situation surrounding Giannis is a negative one for Milwaukee's chances.
Giannis' Importance
Even mostly with Giannis, the Buck offense ranks 11th out of 16 playoff teams in offensive rating. Now the Bucks have to face a Sun team that has possessed one of the best defenses throughout the regular season and playoffs.
Giannis' impact will be felt most acutely on the defensive side of the ball, where he has garnered multiple accolades in recent history.
He has been named an NBA All-Defense first teamer three times in his career. All three times came in the last three seasons, including this one. Last year, Giannis was also named Defensive Player of the Year.
Individually, Milwaukee lacks anybody with Giannis' defensive reputation. No other Buck defender possesses his help-side ability, his disruptive length, his athleticism, and his overall defensive skill set.
PJ Tucker and Khris Middleton's Defense
It is true that other Buck players have stepped up defensively in these playoffs.
One notable player is PJ Tucker, who performed well at times against Net superstar Kevin Durant.
Despite the difficulty level of Tucker's assignments, he boasts an excellent defensive rating, although he benefitted from referees allowing him to play more physically in Milwaukee.
But if the Buck defense switches on ball-screens -- as it started doing more often during the regular season and continued doing during the playoffs -- the power forward would constitute a liability especially against Sun star Devin Booker, who is a quick guard.
Even when Khris Middleton tries to stay in front of Booker -- while Jrue Holiday guards Chris Paul -- many comment on Middleton's lack of lateral agility, which is problematic against the speedy Booker.
Drop Coverage
Offensively, Phoenix is known for being inclined to attempt mid-range jumpers, especially with Paul and Booker.
Out of every playoff team, the Suns are attempting the second-most field goals per game in the 10-14 foot range.
Against ball-screens, the Bucks are known for employing drop coverage.
This conservative style of ball-screen defense, where the initial off-ball defender sags off the opposing ball-handler to position himself closer to the basket, makes the defense more vulnerable to the mid-range.
As measured by opposing field goal attempts and opposing field goal efficiency, Milwaukee is one of the worst teams at defending shot attempts from 10-14 feet from the basket.
Trends
I have loyally insisted on fading the Bucks in Game 1 of a series and I have zero reason to stop doing so now.
Last year, the Bucks shockingly lost to the 8 seed Orlando in Game 1 of that series and then failed to come close to covering the spread in Game 1 against Miami.
This year, Milwaukee narrowly beat Miami in overtime in Game 1, even though Miami turned out to be a vastly inferior squad.
Then, in Game 1 against the Nets, the Bucks again failed to come close to covering the spread.
Most recently, in Game 1 against Atlanta, Milwaukee again lost straight-up against a heavily underdogged team.
Whereas, this year alone, the Bucks are 0-3 ATS in Game 1, the Suns are 3-0 ATS in Game 1.
Moreover, the extra rest will benefit Phoenix. Home teams with over two days' rest are enjoying 13-0 SU and ATS runs in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
Best Bet: Suns -6 at -115 with BetOnline
