Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for July 3
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Atlanta Hawks
Friday, July 2, 2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at State Farm Arena in Atlanta
The Odds
There has been a massive shift in the odds. With the best bet for Saturday in mind, I want to focus on the total.
Games one, two, and three all featured posted totals well above 220.
Those games had in common the participation of both Trae Young and Giannis.
While Trae suffered an injury towards the end of Game 3 that derailed Atlanta's scoring impetus, the sports betting sites couldn't have foreseen that.
With Trae ruled out for Game 4, the total dropped to 215.5, approximately a 10-point difference relative to what it was before.
The "under" hit in that game, but not because the Hawks struggled to score.
They accrued 110 points in that game as nine-point underdogs. If the Bucks had won by as many points as they were favored to, the game would have gone "over."
However, they suffered from anomalously poor three-point shooting efficiency and unexpectedly had to miss Giannis, who suffered hyperextension in his knee and left the game after contributing 24 minutes.
Without Giannis and without Trae in Game 5, both teams combined for 235 points, thus sending the game well over even the posted totals from earlier games.
Injury News
Trae Young seems closer to playing for Atlanta than Giannis does for Milwaukee.
A timetable has yet to be released for Giannis. Trae appears to be a repeated game-time decision.
Before Game 5, Trae was attempting shots before the game. But he could not enter the game.
While Giannis may be classified as "doubtful," Trae is rather "questionable."
It is very likely that both players miss Game 6, just like they missed Game 5.
I will argue that the high scoring output in Game 5 was unsurprising and that we should expect another "over" in Game 6, all the more so because the NBA odds continue to feature a lower total.
Continuity
Milwaukee's top scorers in Game 6 were doing what they've been doing. So we should expect them to continue to do what they've been doing.
Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton are Milwaukee's top scorers, not including Giannis.
Both can get their own basket. Both average 40 percent or much higher in the mid-range.
They also converted over 39-percent of their three-pointers during the regular season.
Their individual scoring ability is amplified by the insufficient quality of Atlanta's perimeter defending.
In this respect, Atlanta misses the injured De'Andre Hunter. Among regular Hawk players this postseason, Hunter earned by far the best defensive rating.
Hunter was a perimeter stopper with his combination of length and mobility that also earned him defensive accolades in college.
Middleton and Holiday are active in isolation plays. They are even more active as ball-handlers in Milwaukee's pick-and-roll game.
Based on opposing PPP (points per play), Hunter would have been a solid option to counter either player in both isos and ball-screens.
So Hunter's absence represents a meaningful lack of continuity in Atlanta's ball-screen defense while Holiday and Middleton continue to successfully attack on multiple levels.
Offensive Flow
Without Giannis, Milwaukee enjoys positive flow on offense.
This flow is a product largely of strong ball movement that encourages Milwaukee players to penetrate from a perimeter that Hunter's injury prevents him from helping to secure for the Hawk defense.
The Buck offense no longer gets bogged down by Giannis' frequently slow-motion activity in isolation play.
Brook Lopez will continue to collect easy baskets at the basket as Hawk bigs have to vacate the area nearest the basket in order to help shore up the perimeter.
Bobby Portis was already averaging double-digit figures before he scored 22 on Thursday.
With the good ball movement that we've already seen, the Bucks should also shoot better from three since they, despite Giannis, rank 10th in three-point percentage, and Atlanta's defense ranks in the bottom half in limiting opposing three-point attempts.
Missing Giannis Defensively
While individual Buck players can continue what they've already been doing well on offense, they cannot replace Giannis on defense.
Giannis is a three-time member of the NBA All-Defensive First Team -- he earned a spot each of the last three seasons including this one -- and he was Defensive Player of the Year last year.
He is most well-known for his help-side defense inside and, this series, he has used his length to disrupt the much shorter Trae Young, just like Philadelphia's Ben Simmons did in the previous round.
His absence will help a Hawk offense that still has good ball-handlers like Kevin Huerter, who is one of six Hawk players (minus Trae and Hunter) to average double digits this postseason, partly also because he often has big games from behind the arc, which is an area that Milwaukee has struggled to defend this entire season.
Regular season included, the Bucks rank 24th in limiting opposing three-point percentage.
Best Bet: Over 216 at -108 with Heritage
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Atlanta Hawks
Friday, July 2, 2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at State Farm Arena in Atlanta
The Odds
There has been a massive shift in the odds. With the best bet for Saturday in mind, I want to focus on the total.
Games one, two, and three all featured posted totals well above 220.
Those games had in common the participation of both Trae Young and Giannis.
While Trae suffered an injury towards the end of Game 3 that derailed Atlanta's scoring impetus, the sports betting sites couldn't have foreseen that.
With Trae ruled out for Game 4, the total dropped to 215.5, approximately a 10-point difference relative to what it was before.
The "under" hit in that game, but not because the Hawks struggled to score.
They accrued 110 points in that game as nine-point underdogs. If the Bucks had won by as many points as they were favored to, the game would have gone "over."
However, they suffered from anomalously poor three-point shooting efficiency and unexpectedly had to miss Giannis, who suffered hyperextension in his knee and left the game after contributing 24 minutes.
Without Giannis and without Trae in Game 5, both teams combined for 235 points, thus sending the game well over even the posted totals from earlier games.
Injury News
Trae Young seems closer to playing for Atlanta than Giannis does for Milwaukee.
A timetable has yet to be released for Giannis. Trae appears to be a repeated game-time decision.
Before Game 5, Trae was attempting shots before the game. But he could not enter the game.
While Giannis may be classified as "doubtful," Trae is rather "questionable."
It is very likely that both players miss Game 6, just like they missed Game 5.
I will argue that the high scoring output in Game 5 was unsurprising and that we should expect another "over" in Game 6, all the more so because the NBA odds continue to feature a lower total.
Continuity
Milwaukee's top scorers in Game 6 were doing what they've been doing. So we should expect them to continue to do what they've been doing.
Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton are Milwaukee's top scorers, not including Giannis.
Both can get their own basket. Both average 40 percent or much higher in the mid-range.
They also converted over 39-percent of their three-pointers during the regular season.
Their individual scoring ability is amplified by the insufficient quality of Atlanta's perimeter defending.
In this respect, Atlanta misses the injured De'Andre Hunter. Among regular Hawk players this postseason, Hunter earned by far the best defensive rating.
Hunter was a perimeter stopper with his combination of length and mobility that also earned him defensive accolades in college.
Middleton and Holiday are active in isolation plays. They are even more active as ball-handlers in Milwaukee's pick-and-roll game.
Based on opposing PPP (points per play), Hunter would have been a solid option to counter either player in both isos and ball-screens.
So Hunter's absence represents a meaningful lack of continuity in Atlanta's ball-screen defense while Holiday and Middleton continue to successfully attack on multiple levels.
Offensive Flow
Without Giannis, Milwaukee enjoys positive flow on offense.
This flow is a product largely of strong ball movement that encourages Milwaukee players to penetrate from a perimeter that Hunter's injury prevents him from helping to secure for the Hawk defense.
The Buck offense no longer gets bogged down by Giannis' frequently slow-motion activity in isolation play.
Brook Lopez will continue to collect easy baskets at the basket as Hawk bigs have to vacate the area nearest the basket in order to help shore up the perimeter.
Bobby Portis was already averaging double-digit figures before he scored 22 on Thursday.
With the good ball movement that we've already seen, the Bucks should also shoot better from three since they, despite Giannis, rank 10th in three-point percentage, and Atlanta's defense ranks in the bottom half in limiting opposing three-point attempts.
Missing Giannis Defensively
While individual Buck players can continue what they've already been doing well on offense, they cannot replace Giannis on defense.
Giannis is a three-time member of the NBA All-Defensive First Team -- he earned a spot each of the last three seasons including this one -- and he was Defensive Player of the Year last year.
He is most well-known for his help-side defense inside and, this series, he has used his length to disrupt the much shorter Trae Young, just like Philadelphia's Ben Simmons did in the previous round.
His absence will help a Hawk offense that still has good ball-handlers like Kevin Huerter, who is one of six Hawk players (minus Trae and Hunter) to average double digits this postseason, partly also because he often has big games from behind the arc, which is an area that Milwaukee has struggled to defend this entire season.
Regular season included, the Bucks rank 24th in limiting opposing three-point percentage.
Best Bet: Over 216 at -108 with Heritage
