NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Atlanta Hawks
Saturday, July 3, 2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET at State Farm Arena in Atlanta
Bucks and Hawks Minus Their Stars
In this series, we have now gotten to see how both teams play without their star player in games where they are prepared for their star player to be absent.
Coming into Game 4 without point guard Trae Young, Atlanta won 110-88. The Hawks benefitted from significantly stronger efficiency from behind the arc.
Lou Williams and especially Bogdan Bogdanovic stepped up. The latter converted six three-point attempts.
Conversely, the Bucks only made eight of 39 three-point attempts.
To their surprise, they had to play largely without Giannis. He had to exit the game after 24 minutes and his exit prompted a 25-10 scoring run from the Hawks.
Game 5 was a different story for reasons that, I will argue, indicate that the Bucks can reassert their supremacy in Game 6.
In Game 5, the Bucks did not rely on the opponent surprisingly losing a star or important player. They also did not rely simply on performing better from behind the arc.
In fact, in Game 5, Atlanta was much more efficient from deep, largely thanks to another unexpectedly incredible shooting performance from Bogdanovic.
Giannis vs. Trae Young
It's important to note how both leams look without their star because both stars may also miss Game 6. Giannis suffered hyperextension in his left knee and Trae is still suffering pain in his foot from a bone bruise.
The key factor is ball movement. I think Trae is more important to the Hawk offense than Giannis is to Milwaukee's because Trae, a top assist-getter as a point guard, is central to Atlanta's ability to pass and move the ball.
Giannis is not going to give Milwaukee that element of offense. He's not a point guard. What Giannis is going to do is get isolated with a defender and work his way to the basket.
If that sounds boring, it is. It can often bog down the entire offense as teammates sit and let Giannis operate.
Certainly, Giannis is amazing at what he does in the half court. But his individual scoring prowess pales in importance to the team-sustaining source of energy that strong ball movement generates.
Without Giannis, Milwaukee still had and has the guard play to generate that ball movement.
Ball Movement
In Game 5, we saw Buck players rally and amass unusually high scoring outputs as a result of good ball movement.
One obvious example was Brook Lopez, who scored 33 points.
It's not like Lopez suddenly morphed into a Hall-of-Famer. Instead, he was scoring assisted baskets, walking to the basket for layups, hook-shots, and rebounds.
He benefitted from teammates penetrating inside from the perimeter that forced Hawk bigs to shift from their preferred defensive position by stepping up to the arc. In moving so, they left Lopez wide open.
Middleton, Holiday, and Portis
Both Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday are well-known for their mid-range prowess, largely for which reason they are two of Milwaukee's top-three scorers this postseason (with Giannis being the other).
Middleton and Holiday contribute to the perceived need of Hawk bigs to leave their spot next to the rim exposed because they have to respect the mid-range ability of those two players.
Bobby Portis was also an important scorer. His impact reflects an extension of what he's already been doing -- he was already a double-digit scorer, but received less playing time with Giannis in the game.
So nothing is really surprising here except, if anything, Milwaukee's lack of three-point shooting, because the Bucks underperformed significantly relative to their season-long three-point shooting.
Total Verdict
Stronger shooting will help Milwaukee amplify its scoring output.
I do think that Giannis' defense -- he is annually a Defensive Player of the Year candidate -- will be missed and his absence would help Atlanta score more points.
Atlanta continues to miss De'Andre Hunter, a strong perimeter defender whose length and mobility could have helped curb the perimeter penetration of Buck players.
But the Bucks continue to find advantages in the paint. Atlanta, still, should continue to rely on a pretty deep team that features six double-digit scorers not including Trae or Hunter. Bogdanovic is far from being the team's only efficient three-point shooter.
Best Bet: Parlay Bucks +1 at -108 & Over 216 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Atlanta Hawks
Saturday, July 3, 2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET at State Farm Arena in Atlanta
Bucks and Hawks Minus Their Stars
In this series, we have now gotten to see how both teams play without their star player in games where they are prepared for their star player to be absent.
Coming into Game 4 without point guard Trae Young, Atlanta won 110-88. The Hawks benefitted from significantly stronger efficiency from behind the arc.
Lou Williams and especially Bogdan Bogdanovic stepped up. The latter converted six three-point attempts.
Conversely, the Bucks only made eight of 39 three-point attempts.
To their surprise, they had to play largely without Giannis. He had to exit the game after 24 minutes and his exit prompted a 25-10 scoring run from the Hawks.
Game 5 was a different story for reasons that, I will argue, indicate that the Bucks can reassert their supremacy in Game 6.
In Game 5, the Bucks did not rely on the opponent surprisingly losing a star or important player. They also did not rely simply on performing better from behind the arc.
In fact, in Game 5, Atlanta was much more efficient from deep, largely thanks to another unexpectedly incredible shooting performance from Bogdanovic.
Giannis vs. Trae Young
It's important to note how both leams look without their star because both stars may also miss Game 6. Giannis suffered hyperextension in his left knee and Trae is still suffering pain in his foot from a bone bruise.
The key factor is ball movement. I think Trae is more important to the Hawk offense than Giannis is to Milwaukee's because Trae, a top assist-getter as a point guard, is central to Atlanta's ability to pass and move the ball.
Giannis is not going to give Milwaukee that element of offense. He's not a point guard. What Giannis is going to do is get isolated with a defender and work his way to the basket.
If that sounds boring, it is. It can often bog down the entire offense as teammates sit and let Giannis operate.
Certainly, Giannis is amazing at what he does in the half court. But his individual scoring prowess pales in importance to the team-sustaining source of energy that strong ball movement generates.
Without Giannis, Milwaukee still had and has the guard play to generate that ball movement.
Ball Movement
In Game 5, we saw Buck players rally and amass unusually high scoring outputs as a result of good ball movement.
One obvious example was Brook Lopez, who scored 33 points.
It's not like Lopez suddenly morphed into a Hall-of-Famer. Instead, he was scoring assisted baskets, walking to the basket for layups, hook-shots, and rebounds.
He benefitted from teammates penetrating inside from the perimeter that forced Hawk bigs to shift from their preferred defensive position by stepping up to the arc. In moving so, they left Lopez wide open.
Middleton, Holiday, and Portis
Both Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday are well-known for their mid-range prowess, largely for which reason they are two of Milwaukee's top-three scorers this postseason (with Giannis being the other).
Middleton and Holiday contribute to the perceived need of Hawk bigs to leave their spot next to the rim exposed because they have to respect the mid-range ability of those two players.
Bobby Portis was also an important scorer. His impact reflects an extension of what he's already been doing -- he was already a double-digit scorer, but received less playing time with Giannis in the game.
So nothing is really surprising here except, if anything, Milwaukee's lack of three-point shooting, because the Bucks underperformed significantly relative to their season-long three-point shooting.
Total Verdict
Stronger shooting will help Milwaukee amplify its scoring output.
I do think that Giannis' defense -- he is annually a Defensive Player of the Year candidate -- will be missed and his absence would help Atlanta score more points.
Atlanta continues to miss De'Andre Hunter, a strong perimeter defender whose length and mobility could have helped curb the perimeter penetration of Buck players.
But the Bucks continue to find advantages in the paint. Atlanta, still, should continue to rely on a pretty deep team that features six double-digit scorers not including Trae or Hunter. Bogdanovic is far from being the team's only efficient three-point shooter.
Best Bet: Parlay Bucks +1 at -108 & Over 216 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
