NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Phoenix Suns
Saturday, July 17, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET (ABC) at Phoenix Suns Arena in Phoenix
The Point God's Rise and Fall
Phoenix has lost its lead in this series largely because of point guard Chris Paul's drop in performance.
Reasons to delegitimate the significance of a drop in performance will tend to revolve around an individual player or around variance.
But Paul's drop in performance -- evident in, for example, his lower amount of points per game -- worries me because this drop is not about Paul.
Paul isn't simply having off days, he isn't "choking," he isn't encumbered by injury or rusty.
Jrue Holiday's On-Ball Defense
Rather, Milwaukee is sticking Jrue Holiday on Paul and Holiday's superb defense is proving to be a difference-maker.
Holiday's ability to make a decisive difference on defense is already well-established. He is a two-time first-teamer on the NBA's All-Defensive unit. His second time was this season.
He is reliably a candidate for best on-ball defender as superstars like Kevin Durant have articulated.
In this series, Holiday is harassing Paul often literally from one end of the court to the other.
Phoenix's offense already likes to be slow largely because of Paul's methodical style of play. But Holiday's on-ball defending is delaying the Sun offense even further by making it harder for the offensive unit to get into its offensive sets.
Besides delaying the offense, Holiday is forcing Paul to lose the ball, which is something that Paul has rarely done this postseason.
This series, Paul is averaging 4.3 turnovers per game, which is more than twice as many as he's averaged in any other series in this postseason.
Of course, one of those turnovers helped seal Game 4 for Milwaukee.
Buck Defense vs. Sun Offense
With view to Holiday's team, his on-ball defending allows teammates to stay at home on shooters. So Holiday makes his team's defense better by giving his teammates less to worry about.
With Paul on the court, Phoenix's offensive rating has plummeted.
Phoenix, which has scored its lowest point totals this series in each of its last two games, is deteriorating offensively despite some monumental efforts from other key players.
Most notably, Devin Booker scored 42 points on 28 shot attempts. But it's important to observe that Paul's bad play effectively offset Booker's scoring output.
It's very hard to expect any player to score over 40 points. So it is telling that Booker's output was effectively meaningless because we have every reason to expect Paul to continue struggling because Holiday will continue to harass and hound him on Saturday.
If Booker doesn't score over 40 points, Phoenix's offense will be in that much more trouble.
Ball-Screen Defense
In addition to being a superb one-on-one, lockdown defender, Holiday excels at defending against ball screens.
This postseason, he ranks in the 89.2 percentile in pick-and-roll ball-handler defense. He's allowing 0.77 PPP (points per possession) against this play type.
His ball-screen defense is a crucial asset because Paul loves to operate out of the pick-and-roll.
It is true that Paul is still able to hunt for switches, such that Holiday momentarily no longer operates as his on-ball defender.
But Holiday remains effective as he makes his presence felt and obstructs Paul's vision, which Paul requires in order to make the passes and assists that the Suns need from him.
This is also where last year's Defensive Player of the Year and a perennial candidate for the award, Giannis, comes into play.
Right now he is operating as a help-side defender. He'll help on ball-screens and generally use his combination of length, athleticism, and IQ to disrupt Phoenix's offense in its preferred mid-range area and closer to the basket.
Giannis' incredible block near the end of Game 4 obviously deserves the attention that it is getting. But that single instance is also a reflection of how Giannis' help defense reliably makes up for the on-ball defending of other guys like Pat Connaughton, who get switched onto Paul but individually aren't nearly as good on defense as Holiday.
Buck Offense vs. Sun Defense
If Booker produces an incredible scoring output, Giannis will at least match it on offense.
Giannis has scored 42, 41, and 26 points in Milwaukee's last three games.
Whereas Phoenix lacks that second big scorer with Mikal Bridges often sinking into passivity and Paul stifled by Holiday, Milwaukee can still count on Khris Middleton, who scored 40 points with many of them coming in decisive moments down the stretch.
One also can't expect Jrue Holiday to make four of 20 field goal attempts. This was his worst offensive effort in the playoffs.
Overall, Milwaukee is getting plenty of open looks. The Bucks won Game 4 despite making an incredibly bad two of 18 wide open three-point attempts.
Rebounding
Another reason why the Bucks overcame the 2-for-18 shooting on wide open three-point attempts was their supremacy on the glass.
Largely offensive rebounding helped them attempt almost 20 more field goals than Phoenix.
Milwaukee's edge in offensive rebounding is to be expected given the fact that, this season and postseason combined, the Bucks rank third in offensive rebounding while Phoenix ranks 28th.
Total
Holiday is hurting Paul too much on offense while Phoenix's supporting cast for Booker has been inconsistent at best on offense.
While Phoenix is trying to increase its tempo, an increase in tempo jars with Paul's methodical style.
Plus, Milwaukee's prowess on the glass limits the Suns' ability to run and accrue quick fast-break points.
Best Bet: Parlay Bucks +4 at -103 & Under 218 at -108 at +280 odds with Heritage
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Phoenix Suns
Saturday, July 17, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET (ABC) at Phoenix Suns Arena in Phoenix
The Point God's Rise and Fall
Phoenix has lost its lead in this series largely because of point guard Chris Paul's drop in performance.
Reasons to delegitimate the significance of a drop in performance will tend to revolve around an individual player or around variance.
But Paul's drop in performance -- evident in, for example, his lower amount of points per game -- worries me because this drop is not about Paul.
Paul isn't simply having off days, he isn't "choking," he isn't encumbered by injury or rusty.
Jrue Holiday's On-Ball Defense
Rather, Milwaukee is sticking Jrue Holiday on Paul and Holiday's superb defense is proving to be a difference-maker.
Holiday's ability to make a decisive difference on defense is already well-established. He is a two-time first-teamer on the NBA's All-Defensive unit. His second time was this season.
He is reliably a candidate for best on-ball defender as superstars like Kevin Durant have articulated.
In this series, Holiday is harassing Paul often literally from one end of the court to the other.
Phoenix's offense already likes to be slow largely because of Paul's methodical style of play. But Holiday's on-ball defending is delaying the Sun offense even further by making it harder for the offensive unit to get into its offensive sets.
Besides delaying the offense, Holiday is forcing Paul to lose the ball, which is something that Paul has rarely done this postseason.
This series, Paul is averaging 4.3 turnovers per game, which is more than twice as many as he's averaged in any other series in this postseason.
Of course, one of those turnovers helped seal Game 4 for Milwaukee.
Buck Defense vs. Sun Offense
With view to Holiday's team, his on-ball defending allows teammates to stay at home on shooters. So Holiday makes his team's defense better by giving his teammates less to worry about.
With Paul on the court, Phoenix's offensive rating has plummeted.
Phoenix, which has scored its lowest point totals this series in each of its last two games, is deteriorating offensively despite some monumental efforts from other key players.
Most notably, Devin Booker scored 42 points on 28 shot attempts. But it's important to observe that Paul's bad play effectively offset Booker's scoring output.
It's very hard to expect any player to score over 40 points. So it is telling that Booker's output was effectively meaningless because we have every reason to expect Paul to continue struggling because Holiday will continue to harass and hound him on Saturday.
If Booker doesn't score over 40 points, Phoenix's offense will be in that much more trouble.
Ball-Screen Defense
In addition to being a superb one-on-one, lockdown defender, Holiday excels at defending against ball screens.
This postseason, he ranks in the 89.2 percentile in pick-and-roll ball-handler defense. He's allowing 0.77 PPP (points per possession) against this play type.
His ball-screen defense is a crucial asset because Paul loves to operate out of the pick-and-roll.
It is true that Paul is still able to hunt for switches, such that Holiday momentarily no longer operates as his on-ball defender.
But Holiday remains effective as he makes his presence felt and obstructs Paul's vision, which Paul requires in order to make the passes and assists that the Suns need from him.
This is also where last year's Defensive Player of the Year and a perennial candidate for the award, Giannis, comes into play.
Right now he is operating as a help-side defender. He'll help on ball-screens and generally use his combination of length, athleticism, and IQ to disrupt Phoenix's offense in its preferred mid-range area and closer to the basket.
Giannis' incredible block near the end of Game 4 obviously deserves the attention that it is getting. But that single instance is also a reflection of how Giannis' help defense reliably makes up for the on-ball defending of other guys like Pat Connaughton, who get switched onto Paul but individually aren't nearly as good on defense as Holiday.
Buck Offense vs. Sun Defense
If Booker produces an incredible scoring output, Giannis will at least match it on offense.
Giannis has scored 42, 41, and 26 points in Milwaukee's last three games.
Whereas Phoenix lacks that second big scorer with Mikal Bridges often sinking into passivity and Paul stifled by Holiday, Milwaukee can still count on Khris Middleton, who scored 40 points with many of them coming in decisive moments down the stretch.
One also can't expect Jrue Holiday to make four of 20 field goal attempts. This was his worst offensive effort in the playoffs.
Overall, Milwaukee is getting plenty of open looks. The Bucks won Game 4 despite making an incredibly bad two of 18 wide open three-point attempts.
Rebounding
Another reason why the Bucks overcame the 2-for-18 shooting on wide open three-point attempts was their supremacy on the glass.
Largely offensive rebounding helped them attempt almost 20 more field goals than Phoenix.
Milwaukee's edge in offensive rebounding is to be expected given the fact that, this season and postseason combined, the Bucks rank third in offensive rebounding while Phoenix ranks 28th.
Total
Holiday is hurting Paul too much on offense while Phoenix's supporting cast for Booker has been inconsistent at best on offense.
While Phoenix is trying to increase its tempo, an increase in tempo jars with Paul's methodical style.
Plus, Milwaukee's prowess on the glass limits the Suns' ability to run and accrue quick fast-break points.
Best Bet: Parlay Bucks +4 at -103 & Under 218 at -108 at +280 odds with Heritage
