NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Utah Jazz
Friday, February 12, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET at Vivint Smart Home Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah
The Importance of Making Three-Pointers
Success behind the arc and perimeter defense will be decisive for this game because both offenses love to attempt three-pointers.
While Milwaukee attempts the fifth-highest total of three-pointers per game, Utah attempts the highest.
Utah’s Advantage On Offense
More so than Milwaukee, Utah excels at procuring more makable three-point attempts behind the arc.
The Jazz own the fifth-highest frequency of open shot attempts from deep and the second-highest frequency of wide open three-point attempts.
This means that the nearest defender is less commonly within four feet of the Jazz shooter.
In order to get open, Jazz players will often run ball-screen actions and move the ball from side to side in order to shift the defense out of position.
Ball-screens are useful with a screen-setter like Rudy Gobert, who owns the 13th-highest PPP (points per possession) as the roll man to the basket.
When defenders account for Gobert’s rim-attacking ability, they get sucked in towards the rim, which creates more space for Gobert’s teammates behind the arc.
Utah will also perform screens for players who are moving without the ball. The idea with these off-ball actions is to generate open catch-and-shoot opportunities.
Milwaukee’s Defensive Style
By design, Milwaukee is most comfortable guarding the basket.
Against ball-screen actions, the Bucks want to play drop coverage, which means that they want to focus on guarding the paint by remaining closer to the basket.
Also, bigs like Giannis and Brook Lopez will help out when the opponent tries to drive inside.
Milwaukee’s ability to deter opportunities at the rim is evident in the fact that it allows the fourth-fewest field goal attempts per game within five feet of the basket.
This defensive focus may mean a sad day scoring-wise for Gobert. But it will give Utah all the more confidence to do what it does best, which is generate open three-point attempts.
Utah’s Advantage in Perimeter Defense
Unlike Milwaukee, Utah likes to be more aggressive with its on-ball defense.
Defenders can afford to guard opposing potential shooters more closely behind the arc because they have an elite rim protector in Gobert to clean up any messes.
While Gobert has won Defensive Player of the Year twice primarily for his rim protection, a lot of video footage shows that he is also more comfortable guarding the perimeter.
Based on opposing PPP, Gobert handles himself well in isolation, which is important because teams see his physical stiffness and try to isolate three-point-shooting weapons against him.
Gobert helps Utah allow the lowest frequency of open three-point attempts and the fifth-lowest frequency of wide open three-point attempts.
Helped by a slew of less physical but quicker and more versatile defenders, Utah ranks second in opposing made three-pointers per game because of its comfort with utilizing tight coverage against players of all positions behind the arc.
In terms of perimeter defense, Utah has the advantage over a Buck team that ranks 27th in limiting opposing made threes per game.
Trends
Trends are another source of confidence in Utah today.
One trend is that Milwaukee has lost 18 in a row at Utah.
Additionally, the Jazz have covered the spread in their last three meetings with Milwaukee plus in each of their last four games overall.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Dallas Mavericks
Friday, February 12, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas
Dallas’ Interior Defense
Rim protection has been a problem for Dallas throughout the year.
Blame was accorded to centers like Willie Cauley-Stein who had to assume more responsibility with Kristaps Porzingis out and have proven to be poor individual defenders.
In addition to accruing few blocks, they produce a bad defensive rating.
While Porzingis is back, Dallas still only ranks 23rd in blocks per game. Interestingly, Porzingis’ defensive rating has been worse than the Dallas centers who shouldered blame for the team’s struggles in interior defense.
Right now, the Mavericks are allowing the sixth-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the rim.
Why This Matters
It’s important that Dallas struggles defending inside because the Pelicans attempt the fifth most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
Folks like to criticize center Steven Adams for clogging up the paint as a result of his discomfort away from the basket.
But challenging Porzingis more strongly — given his absence of positive form — is a good thing.
Plus, Adams is a tough rebounding machine who will help the Pelicans amass second-chance points.
With Adams, Zion, and slashers like Brandon Ingram, the Pelicans possess a variety of weapons with which to attack the basket.
Dallas will want to limit opposing field goal attempts near the rim in order to compensate for its weakness defending the rim.
This need to overcompensate leads to more opposing three-point attempts for the opponent.
Recently, Minnesota scored 122 points against these Mavericks because it could generate way more three-pointers than it usually does.
Currently, the Pelicans are shooting the ball well. In their last three games, their three-point percentage is 40, which would place them fourth in the NBA if it were a season-long figure.
Ingram and Eric Bledsoe are two Pelican players who are converting over 39 percent of their three-pointers this season. So they will be extra dangerous tonight.
Dallas Offense vs. New Orleans Defense
Perimeter defense has been an issue for the Pelicans throughout the season.
They are allowing the sixth-highest frequency of open three-point attempts and the second-highest frequency of wide open three-point attempts.
Teams are able to get what they want from behind the arc against this leaky perimeter defense.
Dallas has been criticized for shooting too many threes. Tonight is a good night for the Mavericks to earn this criticism.
Plus, like the Pelicans, the Mavs are shooting well, just above 40 percent, from deep.
One thing that Dallas will do in order to quickly create favorable match-ups along the perimeter is to employ double drag screens early in a possession.
Trends
Both teams are consistently hitting the ‘over.’
The ‘over’ is 2-0 in New Orleans’ last two games and 5-0 in Dallas’ last five games.
The Verdict
Utah will defeat Milwaukee due to its greater comfort generating open three-point looks on offense while preventing them on defense.
New Orleans, with its proclivity to score at the rim, and Dallas, with its ability to match New Orleans’ recent prowess from deep, will produce an ‘over.’
Best Bet: Parlay Jazz -1.5 at -110 & Pelicans/Mavericks Over 233.5 at -110 at +264 odds at Bovada
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Utah Jazz
Friday, February 12, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET at Vivint Smart Home Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah
The Importance of Making Three-Pointers
Success behind the arc and perimeter defense will be decisive for this game because both offenses love to attempt three-pointers.
While Milwaukee attempts the fifth-highest total of three-pointers per game, Utah attempts the highest.
Utah’s Advantage On Offense
More so than Milwaukee, Utah excels at procuring more makable three-point attempts behind the arc.
The Jazz own the fifth-highest frequency of open shot attempts from deep and the second-highest frequency of wide open three-point attempts.
This means that the nearest defender is less commonly within four feet of the Jazz shooter.
In order to get open, Jazz players will often run ball-screen actions and move the ball from side to side in order to shift the defense out of position.
Ball-screens are useful with a screen-setter like Rudy Gobert, who owns the 13th-highest PPP (points per possession) as the roll man to the basket.
When defenders account for Gobert’s rim-attacking ability, they get sucked in towards the rim, which creates more space for Gobert’s teammates behind the arc.
Utah will also perform screens for players who are moving without the ball. The idea with these off-ball actions is to generate open catch-and-shoot opportunities.
Milwaukee’s Defensive Style
By design, Milwaukee is most comfortable guarding the basket.
Against ball-screen actions, the Bucks want to play drop coverage, which means that they want to focus on guarding the paint by remaining closer to the basket.
Also, bigs like Giannis and Brook Lopez will help out when the opponent tries to drive inside.
Milwaukee’s ability to deter opportunities at the rim is evident in the fact that it allows the fourth-fewest field goal attempts per game within five feet of the basket.
This defensive focus may mean a sad day scoring-wise for Gobert. But it will give Utah all the more confidence to do what it does best, which is generate open three-point attempts.
Utah’s Advantage in Perimeter Defense
Unlike Milwaukee, Utah likes to be more aggressive with its on-ball defense.
Defenders can afford to guard opposing potential shooters more closely behind the arc because they have an elite rim protector in Gobert to clean up any messes.
While Gobert has won Defensive Player of the Year twice primarily for his rim protection, a lot of video footage shows that he is also more comfortable guarding the perimeter.
Based on opposing PPP, Gobert handles himself well in isolation, which is important because teams see his physical stiffness and try to isolate three-point-shooting weapons against him.
Gobert helps Utah allow the lowest frequency of open three-point attempts and the fifth-lowest frequency of wide open three-point attempts.
Helped by a slew of less physical but quicker and more versatile defenders, Utah ranks second in opposing made three-pointers per game because of its comfort with utilizing tight coverage against players of all positions behind the arc.
In terms of perimeter defense, Utah has the advantage over a Buck team that ranks 27th in limiting opposing made threes per game.
Trends
Trends are another source of confidence in Utah today.
One trend is that Milwaukee has lost 18 in a row at Utah.
Additionally, the Jazz have covered the spread in their last three meetings with Milwaukee plus in each of their last four games overall.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Dallas Mavericks
Friday, February 12, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas
Dallas’ Interior Defense
Rim protection has been a problem for Dallas throughout the year.
Blame was accorded to centers like Willie Cauley-Stein who had to assume more responsibility with Kristaps Porzingis out and have proven to be poor individual defenders.
In addition to accruing few blocks, they produce a bad defensive rating.
While Porzingis is back, Dallas still only ranks 23rd in blocks per game. Interestingly, Porzingis’ defensive rating has been worse than the Dallas centers who shouldered blame for the team’s struggles in interior defense.
Right now, the Mavericks are allowing the sixth-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the rim.
Why This Matters
It’s important that Dallas struggles defending inside because the Pelicans attempt the fifth most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
Folks like to criticize center Steven Adams for clogging up the paint as a result of his discomfort away from the basket.
But challenging Porzingis more strongly — given his absence of positive form — is a good thing.
Plus, Adams is a tough rebounding machine who will help the Pelicans amass second-chance points.
With Adams, Zion, and slashers like Brandon Ingram, the Pelicans possess a variety of weapons with which to attack the basket.
Dallas will want to limit opposing field goal attempts near the rim in order to compensate for its weakness defending the rim.
This need to overcompensate leads to more opposing three-point attempts for the opponent.
Recently, Minnesota scored 122 points against these Mavericks because it could generate way more three-pointers than it usually does.
Currently, the Pelicans are shooting the ball well. In their last three games, their three-point percentage is 40, which would place them fourth in the NBA if it were a season-long figure.
Ingram and Eric Bledsoe are two Pelican players who are converting over 39 percent of their three-pointers this season. So they will be extra dangerous tonight.
Dallas Offense vs. New Orleans Defense
Perimeter defense has been an issue for the Pelicans throughout the season.
They are allowing the sixth-highest frequency of open three-point attempts and the second-highest frequency of wide open three-point attempts.
Teams are able to get what they want from behind the arc against this leaky perimeter defense.
Dallas has been criticized for shooting too many threes. Tonight is a good night for the Mavericks to earn this criticism.
Plus, like the Pelicans, the Mavs are shooting well, just above 40 percent, from deep.
One thing that Dallas will do in order to quickly create favorable match-ups along the perimeter is to employ double drag screens early in a possession.
Trends
Both teams are consistently hitting the ‘over.’
The ‘over’ is 2-0 in New Orleans’ last two games and 5-0 in Dallas’ last five games.
The Verdict
Utah will defeat Milwaukee due to its greater comfort generating open three-point looks on offense while preventing them on defense.
New Orleans, with its proclivity to score at the rim, and Dallas, with its ability to match New Orleans’ recent prowess from deep, will produce an ‘over.’
Best Bet: Parlay Jazz -1.5 at -110 & Pelicans/Mavericks Over 233.5 at -110 at +264 odds at Bovada
