3 Picks April 24: Bucks to Bounce Back in Game 4
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat
Monday, April 24, 2023 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Kaseya Center in Miami
Milwaukee's Bounce-Back History
Milwaukee has a strong history of bouncing back in the postseason.
Last year, the Bucks lost Game 2 in their opening round against Chicago.
They bounced back by blowing out the Bulls by 30 points in Game 3.
In the next round, they followed a 23-point loss to Boston with a victory.
Then, they beat Boston by three after losing to the Celtics by eight in the prior game.
Now, the Bucks did lose the series by losing the last two games.
ButI am confident that Milwaukee will bounce back on Monday because the Bucks are the better team in this series.
Miami does not have enough offense, especially without sharpshooter Tyler Herro.
Now, superstar Giannis might continue to miss time.
But the Bucks have a lot of weapons in his stead.
They have also proven that they can even dominate Miami without Giannis being on the court.
In Game 2, Milwaukee blew Miami out without Giannis. The margin of victory was 16, which flatters the Heat because the Bucks were rather lazy closing out the game.
The Bucks can and will thrive in Game 3 for three main reasons:
One, they are loaded with three-point shooters. While they might not tie the NBA record for three-pointers in a game again, the fact that they did that is telling.
Miami ranks 24that limiting opposing three-point attempts, so the Bucks match up well against them.
Two, Milwaukee can still do a lot inside with Bobby Portis and Game 2 scoring leader Brook Lopez.
Three, Miami is too reliant on Jimmy Butler's scoring.
Best Bet: Bucks -4.5 at -113 with BetOnline
Playing The Total
Milwaukee's bounce-back history extends prominently to its defense.
Last season, the Bucks gave up 81 points to Chicago in Game 3 after losing to the Bulls 110-114.
In the following round, they gave up 101 points to Boston in a bounce-back win that followed a loss in which they surrendered 109 points.
Then, they held the Celtics to 107 points in a bounce-back win that came after a 108-116 loss to them.
The Bucks' defense is going to have its best chance of buckling down if Giannis returns, so we should increase our wager size on the "under" if he comes back.
Giannis is an annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate with his length and freakish athleticism.
He is his team's best chance at guarding Miami's Jimmy Butler.
While I certainly don't mean to deny that Butler is a good player, he is a bit of a one-trick pony.
Butler doesn't shoot the three well, so Milwaukee only really has to worry about containing his dribble-drive potential.
Giannis' return would, one would think, help the Bucks offensively, though, such that one might wonder whether the "under" is still a good play.
But Miami is his nightmare opponent. His career offensive rating is the worst against the Heat and Mavericks.
While Giannis might not play, Butler himself is listed as 'doubtful' with a bruised glute.
He is Miami's leading scorer by nearly 13 points per game, so his absence would deal an irreparable blow to the Heat offense.
Best Bet: Under 218 at -110 with BetOnline
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 9 p.m. ET at crypto.com Arena
Memphis Will Bounce Back
The good news about Memphis' opening quarter debacle from Game 3 is that such a mishap is easily fixable.
All Memphis needs to do is to do anything but what they did in that first quarter.
The Grizzlies relied on different guys launching threes as the Lakers built their lead.
Dillon Brooks, especially, has too strong of a green light given his normal inefficiency from deep and given sharpshooter Desmond Bane's presence.
In simply entering the game with a different game plan that emphasizes the scoring prowess of Brooks' teammates, Memphis is going to score more first quarter points than the nine that it did in Game 3.
Jackson Jr. is the key because L.A. lacks defenders to guard him with.
He has proven too much to handle for Anthony Davis's teammates.
When Davis is on the floor along with Jackson Jr., the latter can use his mobility and offensive versatility to move Davis away from the basket, which Memphis can attack with its array of cutters or with especially Ja Morant's dribble drive ability.
Defensively, Memphis needs to go back to what it already did in its Game 2 victory.
The Grizzlies were super physical against Davis, using multiple defenders on him and having them body him without fouling.
They bothered him as soon as he caught a pass and they prevented him from positioning himself too deeply.
With Davis ineffective, L.A. put on its worst half-court performance of the season because they rely extensively on his offense.
So, trust in Memphis with its balanced offense and characteristically physical defense.
Best Bet: Grizzlies +4.5 at -113 with BetOnline
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat
Monday, April 24, 2023 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Kaseya Center in Miami
Milwaukee's Bounce-Back History
Milwaukee has a strong history of bouncing back in the postseason.
Last year, the Bucks lost Game 2 in their opening round against Chicago.
They bounced back by blowing out the Bulls by 30 points in Game 3.
In the next round, they followed a 23-point loss to Boston with a victory.
Then, they beat Boston by three after losing to the Celtics by eight in the prior game.
Now, the Bucks did lose the series by losing the last two games.
ButI am confident that Milwaukee will bounce back on Monday because the Bucks are the better team in this series.
Miami does not have enough offense, especially without sharpshooter Tyler Herro.
Now, superstar Giannis might continue to miss time.
But the Bucks have a lot of weapons in his stead.
They have also proven that they can even dominate Miami without Giannis being on the court.
In Game 2, Milwaukee blew Miami out without Giannis. The margin of victory was 16, which flatters the Heat because the Bucks were rather lazy closing out the game.
The Bucks can and will thrive in Game 3 for three main reasons:
One, they are loaded with three-point shooters. While they might not tie the NBA record for three-pointers in a game again, the fact that they did that is telling.
Miami ranks 24that limiting opposing three-point attempts, so the Bucks match up well against them.
Two, Milwaukee can still do a lot inside with Bobby Portis and Game 2 scoring leader Brook Lopez.
Three, Miami is too reliant on Jimmy Butler's scoring.
Best Bet: Bucks -4.5 at -113 with BetOnline
Playing The Total
Milwaukee's bounce-back history extends prominently to its defense.
Last season, the Bucks gave up 81 points to Chicago in Game 3 after losing to the Bulls 110-114.
In the following round, they gave up 101 points to Boston in a bounce-back win that followed a loss in which they surrendered 109 points.
Then, they held the Celtics to 107 points in a bounce-back win that came after a 108-116 loss to them.
The Bucks' defense is going to have its best chance of buckling down if Giannis returns, so we should increase our wager size on the "under" if he comes back.
Giannis is an annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate with his length and freakish athleticism.
He is his team's best chance at guarding Miami's Jimmy Butler.
While I certainly don't mean to deny that Butler is a good player, he is a bit of a one-trick pony.
Butler doesn't shoot the three well, so Milwaukee only really has to worry about containing his dribble-drive potential.
Giannis' return would, one would think, help the Bucks offensively, though, such that one might wonder whether the "under" is still a good play.
But Miami is his nightmare opponent. His career offensive rating is the worst against the Heat and Mavericks.
While Giannis might not play, Butler himself is listed as 'doubtful' with a bruised glute.
He is Miami's leading scorer by nearly 13 points per game, so his absence would deal an irreparable blow to the Heat offense.
Best Bet: Under 218 at -110 with BetOnline
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 9 p.m. ET at crypto.com Arena
Memphis Will Bounce Back
The good news about Memphis' opening quarter debacle from Game 3 is that such a mishap is easily fixable.
All Memphis needs to do is to do anything but what they did in that first quarter.
The Grizzlies relied on different guys launching threes as the Lakers built their lead.
Dillon Brooks, especially, has too strong of a green light given his normal inefficiency from deep and given sharpshooter Desmond Bane's presence.
In simply entering the game with a different game plan that emphasizes the scoring prowess of Brooks' teammates, Memphis is going to score more first quarter points than the nine that it did in Game 3.
Jackson Jr. is the key because L.A. lacks defenders to guard him with.
He has proven too much to handle for Anthony Davis's teammates.
When Davis is on the floor along with Jackson Jr., the latter can use his mobility and offensive versatility to move Davis away from the basket, which Memphis can attack with its array of cutters or with especially Ja Morant's dribble drive ability.
Defensively, Memphis needs to go back to what it already did in its Game 2 victory.
The Grizzlies were super physical against Davis, using multiple defenders on him and having them body him without fouling.
They bothered him as soon as he caught a pass and they prevented him from positioning himself too deeply.
With Davis ineffective, L.A. put on its worst half-court performance of the season because they rely extensively on his offense.
So, trust in Memphis with its balanced offense and characteristically physical defense.
Best Bet: Grizzlies +4.5 at -113 with BetOnline
