NFL Conference Championship Parlay Plays: Bets to Win on Sunday
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, January 24, 2021 at 3:05 p.m. ET (FOX) at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin
Key Trend #1
Tampa Bay’s offensive success in its 38-10 Week 6 victory over Green Bay reflects a larger pattern.
Packer defensive coordinator Mike Pettine has given up an average of 34 points in his last eight games against Tom Brady.
No matter which personnel Pettine possesses and which team he coaches for, he cannot figure out how to stop a Tom Brady-led offense.
Tampa Bay Offense vs. Green Bay Defense
With Brady, the Bucs have a pass-first offense that will give the Packers a uniquely difficult test.
Green Bay hasn’t faced a quarterback who ranks top-10 in passing yards since Philip Rivers eight weeks ago.
Brady ranks third in passing yards. He will exploit a Packer secondary that, in terms of stats like opposing passer rating, suffers a significant qualitative drop-off after its top guy.
Last week, Brady completed a pass to eight different pass-catchers. He enjoys a variety of good pass-catchers that bodes well against a top-heavy secondary like Green Bay’s.
While guys like Chris Godwin, who has caught more than half of his touchdowns this season in his past five games, are staples at wide receiver, the running back will be a unique factor.
Against the Packer defense, running backs have accrued the fifth-highest receiving yardage total.
Tampa Bay’s Leonard Fournette has 10 catches for 83 yards in the playoffs so far. When he reels in a catch, he is surprisingly nimble in space for a man of his bulk. With his skills set, he has been a consistent pass-catching option this season.
Key Trend #2
Aaron Rodgers reliably fails to lead his team to a postseason victory against a team that blew out Green Bay during the regular season.
Last season, for example, Green Bay lost to San Francisco 37-20 in the playoffs after the 49ers beat Green Bay 37-8 during the regular season.
In the playoff rematch, Rodgers failed to reach a passer rating of 100 despite receiving help from meaningless productivity that he achieved after the game was sealed.
A similar story reinforcing the same message about Green Bay and Rodgers in playoff rematches after a regular season blowout by the same team can be told for the Arizona games in 2015 and the Seattle ones in 2014.
Green Bay Rush Offense vs. Tampa Bay Run Defense
Head coach Matt LaFleur’s offensive scheme is predicated on play-action passes.
Because play-action plays consist in a fake handoff, Green Bay will want to establish the run in order to sell the run.
With their ground game, the Packers have worked on becoming more physical.
The problem is that Tampa Bay’s linebacking crew will match its physicality.
Lavonte David, for example, is somebody whom PFF has ranked as the NFL’s top run-stuffing linebacker.
With help from missiles like David, the Bucs easily own the top run defense as measured by opposing rushing yards per game.
Aaron Rodgers & Davante Adams vs. Tampa Bay Pass Defense
It is no secret that Rodgers primarily wants to target Davante Adams.
But a Buccaneer front seven that ranks fifth in pass rush win rate is going to place Rodgers under significant pressure.
In their first meeting, Tampa Bay sacked Rodgers five times. For this meeting, the Packers miss All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari.
While Rodgers is mobile, he remains lackluster under pressure. He ranks 11th in completion percentage under pressure.
Tampa Bay still won’t stop Adams because nobody can. But Adams repeatedly gets limited to human numbers when Green Bay faces physical teams with strong cornerback play like Chicago and, yes, Tampa Bay.
Carlton Davis will help contain Adams. Davis, similar to multiple teammates, allows a passer rating below 90. Davis’ stats are heavily impacted by his having suffered a couple atrocious performances that came against pure speedsters like Kansas City’s Tyreek Hill who are built differently than Adams.
The Verdict
Tampa Bay will put up 30+ against Green Bay given the Packers’ defensive coordinator history, the defense’s lack of cornerback depth, and the defense’s vulnerability to pass-catching running backs.
Historically speaking, Aaron Rodgers inspires pessimism in this rematch scenario. As Tampa Bay’s toughest test this postseason and as a yardage-amassing MVP candidate, he’ll do what is needed — which is not a lot — to help the game go over.
Expect Green Bay’s 20 or so points to secure the “over” but fail to secure Green Bay the cover.
Best Bet: Parlay Buccaneers +4 at -115 & Over 51 at -104 at +267 odds with Bookmaker
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, January 24, 2021 at 3:05 p.m. ET (FOX) at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin
Key Trend #1
Tampa Bay’s offensive success in its 38-10 Week 6 victory over Green Bay reflects a larger pattern.
Packer defensive coordinator Mike Pettine has given up an average of 34 points in his last eight games against Tom Brady.
No matter which personnel Pettine possesses and which team he coaches for, he cannot figure out how to stop a Tom Brady-led offense.
Tampa Bay Offense vs. Green Bay Defense
With Brady, the Bucs have a pass-first offense that will give the Packers a uniquely difficult test.
Green Bay hasn’t faced a quarterback who ranks top-10 in passing yards since Philip Rivers eight weeks ago.
Brady ranks third in passing yards. He will exploit a Packer secondary that, in terms of stats like opposing passer rating, suffers a significant qualitative drop-off after its top guy.
Last week, Brady completed a pass to eight different pass-catchers. He enjoys a variety of good pass-catchers that bodes well against a top-heavy secondary like Green Bay’s.
While guys like Chris Godwin, who has caught more than half of his touchdowns this season in his past five games, are staples at wide receiver, the running back will be a unique factor.
Against the Packer defense, running backs have accrued the fifth-highest receiving yardage total.
Tampa Bay’s Leonard Fournette has 10 catches for 83 yards in the playoffs so far. When he reels in a catch, he is surprisingly nimble in space for a man of his bulk. With his skills set, he has been a consistent pass-catching option this season.
Key Trend #2
Aaron Rodgers reliably fails to lead his team to a postseason victory against a team that blew out Green Bay during the regular season.
Last season, for example, Green Bay lost to San Francisco 37-20 in the playoffs after the 49ers beat Green Bay 37-8 during the regular season.
In the playoff rematch, Rodgers failed to reach a passer rating of 100 despite receiving help from meaningless productivity that he achieved after the game was sealed.
A similar story reinforcing the same message about Green Bay and Rodgers in playoff rematches after a regular season blowout by the same team can be told for the Arizona games in 2015 and the Seattle ones in 2014.
Green Bay Rush Offense vs. Tampa Bay Run Defense
Head coach Matt LaFleur’s offensive scheme is predicated on play-action passes.
Because play-action plays consist in a fake handoff, Green Bay will want to establish the run in order to sell the run.
With their ground game, the Packers have worked on becoming more physical.
The problem is that Tampa Bay’s linebacking crew will match its physicality.
Lavonte David, for example, is somebody whom PFF has ranked as the NFL’s top run-stuffing linebacker.
With help from missiles like David, the Bucs easily own the top run defense as measured by opposing rushing yards per game.
Aaron Rodgers & Davante Adams vs. Tampa Bay Pass Defense
It is no secret that Rodgers primarily wants to target Davante Adams.
But a Buccaneer front seven that ranks fifth in pass rush win rate is going to place Rodgers under significant pressure.
In their first meeting, Tampa Bay sacked Rodgers five times. For this meeting, the Packers miss All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari.
While Rodgers is mobile, he remains lackluster under pressure. He ranks 11th in completion percentage under pressure.
Tampa Bay still won’t stop Adams because nobody can. But Adams repeatedly gets limited to human numbers when Green Bay faces physical teams with strong cornerback play like Chicago and, yes, Tampa Bay.
Carlton Davis will help contain Adams. Davis, similar to multiple teammates, allows a passer rating below 90. Davis’ stats are heavily impacted by his having suffered a couple atrocious performances that came against pure speedsters like Kansas City’s Tyreek Hill who are built differently than Adams.
The Verdict
Tampa Bay will put up 30+ against Green Bay given the Packers’ defensive coordinator history, the defense’s lack of cornerback depth, and the defense’s vulnerability to pass-catching running backs.
Historically speaking, Aaron Rodgers inspires pessimism in this rematch scenario. As Tampa Bay’s toughest test this postseason and as a yardage-amassing MVP candidate, he’ll do what is needed — which is not a lot — to help the game go over.
Expect Green Bay’s 20 or so points to secure the “over” but fail to secure Green Bay the cover.
Best Bet: Parlay Buccaneers +4 at -115 & Over 51 at -104 at +267 odds with Bookmaker
