Buccaneers vs. Lions Divisional Round Divisional Round Game Odds & Picks: The Buccaneers Are Road Warriors
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, January 21, 2024 at 3 p.m. ET at Ford Field in Detroit
The Odds
Detroit is favored heavily partly because oddsmakers are accounting for its home field advantage.
But the Buccaneers are worth according added respect on the road where they tend to play more concentrated and better overall.
On the road, they are 8-1 ATS.
Rematch
The first meeting between Detroit and Tampa Bay took place back in Week 6 in Tampa Bay.
The Lions won 20-6.
But a lot has changed since Week 6.
Detroit's More Vulnerable Defense
Opposing offenses have clearly figured out how to attack Detroit's defense.
The Bucs were victimized by their schedule in a sense that they faced the Lions before their defense had fallen off their cliff.
Before Detroit's bye week in Week 9, the Lions had given up 25 or more points in two different games.
After their bye week, the Lions gave up 25+ points in five different games.
While Detroit's last two games show that running backs are starting to have some more success against its defense, the key is that the Lions' secondary has renewed its porous tendencies which it had shed after firing its defensive backs coach last October.
The Lions' increased vulnerability in the back amounts to Detroit ranking 30th in pass defense.
This development is crucial because Tampa Bay is a team that strongly prefers to pass – while the Bucs have improved a lot running the ball with Rachaad White, they often abandon the run by utilizing White as a pass-catcher instead of having him carry the ball.
Tampa Bay's Improved Offense
Since its Week 6 loss to Detroit, Tampa Bay has improved a lot offensively.
Before Week 9, the Bucs had reached 29 points zero times.
Since then, they've scored 29 or more points five times, including in their Wild Card Round blowout win over Philadelphia.
In his first year with the Bucs, quarterback Baker Mayfield has improved greatly, and he is now having one of the best seasons in his career.
He is aided especially by strong wide receiver play in the form of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Led by Mayfield, the Bucs have scored 20+ points now in eight of their last eleven games.
The three exceptions came in a clunker at home, in a very conservative effort against a Carolina team that didn't push the Bucs to score more, and against San Francisco's elite defense.
Rematch Trend
With their improved offense, which is strong in its pass attack, against Detroit's regressed defense that is vulnerable in the back against the pass, Tampa Bay will have no problem exceeding 20 points in this rematch.
The key rematch trend indicates that opposing defenses figure out how to perform well against Detroit's offense when they get a second try.
We have two solid examples: Chicago first gave up 31 points to Detroit before holding Detroit to 13 points three weeks later.
Green Bay first gave up 34 points to the Lions before holding them to 22 points in the rematch.
Minnesota gave up the same amount of points to Detroit in both of their meetings.
Tampa Bay, with its defensive-minded head coach Todd Bowles, is going to figure out how to hold Detroit to fewer points in this upcoming rematch than the Lions scored in their first meeting. That is, the Lions will score fewer than 20 points.
Blitz
As suggested by metrics like catchable pass rate under pressure and passer rating under pressure, Lions quarterback Jared Goff struggles against the blitz.
Even teams with poor pass rushing abilities are able to figure out how to use the blitz to bother Goff.
An example is the Bears, who rank last in sack percentage.
In Week 14, Chicago blitzed Goff on 28 percent of his drop-backs, thus choosing to blitz at a higher rate than they usually do.
Goff's passer rating on those drop-backs was 8.3.
He lacks the mobility to evade the blitz – he is an easy target for defenses that send extra defenders.
Todd Bowles is going to take advantage of Goff's weakness because he is already inclined to do so. The Bucs under Bowles blitz at the third highest rate.
Stopping The Run
Goff would love to rely on play-action and simply on the running of his top two running backs.
Detroit loves to run the ball, but Tampa Bay poses a tough matchup because the Bucs rank fourth against the run.
Led by run-stuffer Vita Vea, the Bucs just shut down Philadelphia running back D'Andre Swift to 34 rushing yards on ten carries.
The Bucs have proven themselves against the NFL's top running backs.
Without the support of an effective run game, Goff will be that more uncomfortable, and Detroit's offense will have all the more trouble scoring.
Best Bet: Buccaneers +6 at -105 with BetOnline & Lions Team Total Under 27.5 at -115 with BetOnline
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, January 21, 2024 at 3 p.m. ET at Ford Field in Detroit
The Odds
Detroit is favored heavily partly because oddsmakers are accounting for its home field advantage.
But the Buccaneers are worth according added respect on the road where they tend to play more concentrated and better overall.
On the road, they are 8-1 ATS.
Rematch
The first meeting between Detroit and Tampa Bay took place back in Week 6 in Tampa Bay.
The Lions won 20-6.
But a lot has changed since Week 6.
Detroit's More Vulnerable Defense
Opposing offenses have clearly figured out how to attack Detroit's defense.
The Bucs were victimized by their schedule in a sense that they faced the Lions before their defense had fallen off their cliff.
Before Detroit's bye week in Week 9, the Lions had given up 25 or more points in two different games.
After their bye week, the Lions gave up 25+ points in five different games.
While Detroit's last two games show that running backs are starting to have some more success against its defense, the key is that the Lions' secondary has renewed its porous tendencies which it had shed after firing its defensive backs coach last October.
The Lions' increased vulnerability in the back amounts to Detroit ranking 30th in pass defense.
This development is crucial because Tampa Bay is a team that strongly prefers to pass – while the Bucs have improved a lot running the ball with Rachaad White, they often abandon the run by utilizing White as a pass-catcher instead of having him carry the ball.
Tampa Bay's Improved Offense
Since its Week 6 loss to Detroit, Tampa Bay has improved a lot offensively.
Before Week 9, the Bucs had reached 29 points zero times.
Since then, they've scored 29 or more points five times, including in their Wild Card Round blowout win over Philadelphia.
In his first year with the Bucs, quarterback Baker Mayfield has improved greatly, and he is now having one of the best seasons in his career.
He is aided especially by strong wide receiver play in the form of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Led by Mayfield, the Bucs have scored 20+ points now in eight of their last eleven games.
The three exceptions came in a clunker at home, in a very conservative effort against a Carolina team that didn't push the Bucs to score more, and against San Francisco's elite defense.
Rematch Trend
With their improved offense, which is strong in its pass attack, against Detroit's regressed defense that is vulnerable in the back against the pass, Tampa Bay will have no problem exceeding 20 points in this rematch.
The key rematch trend indicates that opposing defenses figure out how to perform well against Detroit's offense when they get a second try.
We have two solid examples: Chicago first gave up 31 points to Detroit before holding Detroit to 13 points three weeks later.
Green Bay first gave up 34 points to the Lions before holding them to 22 points in the rematch.
Minnesota gave up the same amount of points to Detroit in both of their meetings.
Tampa Bay, with its defensive-minded head coach Todd Bowles, is going to figure out how to hold Detroit to fewer points in this upcoming rematch than the Lions scored in their first meeting. That is, the Lions will score fewer than 20 points.
Blitz
As suggested by metrics like catchable pass rate under pressure and passer rating under pressure, Lions quarterback Jared Goff struggles against the blitz.
Even teams with poor pass rushing abilities are able to figure out how to use the blitz to bother Goff.
An example is the Bears, who rank last in sack percentage.
In Week 14, Chicago blitzed Goff on 28 percent of his drop-backs, thus choosing to blitz at a higher rate than they usually do.
Goff's passer rating on those drop-backs was 8.3.
He lacks the mobility to evade the blitz – he is an easy target for defenses that send extra defenders.
Todd Bowles is going to take advantage of Goff's weakness because he is already inclined to do so. The Bucs under Bowles blitz at the third highest rate.
Stopping The Run
Goff would love to rely on play-action and simply on the running of his top two running backs.
Detroit loves to run the ball, but Tampa Bay poses a tough matchup because the Bucs rank fourth against the run.
Led by run-stuffer Vita Vea, the Bucs just shut down Philadelphia running back D'Andre Swift to 34 rushing yards on ten carries.
The Bucs have proven themselves against the NFL's top running backs.
Without the support of an effective run game, Goff will be that more uncomfortable, and Detroit's offense will have all the more trouble scoring.
Best Bet: Buccaneers +6 at -105 with BetOnline & Lions Team Total Under 27.5 at -115 with BetOnline
