Last Chance Value Picks For Betting Buccaneers vs. Giants
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Giants
Monday, November 2, 2020 at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey
Mike Evans
Over/Under 51.5 Yards
Overrated
Mike Evans has been Tampa Bay’s top wide receiver for long enough that the over/under on his yardage total represents an automatically tempting ‘over’ bet.
But oddsmakers are routinely overvaluing Evans: the “over” on his yardage total has failed to hit in five of his seven (71.4 percent) games.
James Bradberry
New York cornerback James Bradberry likes to shadow the opposing team’s top wide receiver.
Despite being well-tested, Bradberry is having a superb season by any measure.
Advanced metrics testify to the minimal extent to which opposing wide receivers are able to create any separation from Bradberry.
Wide receivers never burn Bradberry. He is also strong at the point of attack.
For the above reasons, he owns the NFL’s 12th best opposing passer rating when targeted.
Besides possessing top-level speed — he ranks in the 96th percentile in speed score — he also enjoys solid size and physicality at 6-1, 211 pounds. To go along with that size, he has excellent arm length and a more than adequate vertical ability.
Given his qualities, he excels against opposing top wide receivers. This season, he’s held Chicago’s Allen Robinson, L.A.’s Robert Woods, and Dallas’ Amari Cooper to fewer than 50 receiving yards.
Evans
In terms of physical skill set, Evans brings nothing that Bradberry hasn’t already successfully mastered this season.
Besides, Evans isn’t his usual self. An ankle injury has been nagging him in recent weeks. Coach Bruce Arians has publicly cited his resulting reduction in overall fitness.
His reduced fitness helps explain why he has accumulated 41 receiving yards or fewer in each of the past three games. He has a combined total of four targets in his past two contests.
These numbers are as meagre as they are despite the fact that he hasn’t had anybody on Bradberry’s level shadow him.
Also generally in this season, Evans is not showing promising chemistry with the team’s new quarterback, Tom Brady.
In four of his seven games so far, he has four targets or fewer. Likewise, in five of his seven games he has failed to eclipse 41 receiving yards.
Bradberry vs. Evans
As a former Carolina Panther, Bradberry knows Evans extremely well. They used to face off twice a year.
Bradberry always dominated the first match-up.
In their first match-up in 2017, Evans mustered 60 yards on five receptions. In 2018, he produced 16 yards on one reception. In 2019, he achieved 61 yards on four receptions.
One may say: wait, so Evans has often produced over 51 yards against Bradberry. So let’s bet the “over” 51 yards.
But in those games, Evans was targeted eight or 10 times. This season, he’s routinely receiving half or less than half of that number of targets.
Besides his ankle problems, he’s losing in targets to Julian Edel…err…I mean Scotty Miller and former long-time teammate Rob Gronkowski.
Brady loves Miller, who has drawn comparisons to his former favorite slot receiver in New England given his size and skill set. Brady already knows Gronk extremely well from their time in New England.
Plus, Bradberry is playing at a high-caliber level. He’ll give the already struggling Evans a test that, this year, will seem uniquely challenging to Evans.
With other tempting targets available to Brady and with the Giants’ inability to establish a consistent starter beyond Bradberry, Brady can easily find other options with which to exploit a Giants passing defense that is low-ranked despite Bradberry.
Best Bet: Mike Evans Under 51.5 Yards At -106 With Bovada
Rob Gronkowski
Over/Under 42.5 Yards
You want to appreciate how absurdly low Gronk's over/under is posted at.
His total is as low as it is for two reasons: one, he had a slow start to his season after taking all of last year off and not preparing sufficiently during the offseason.
Two, the Giants have strong overall numbers against tight ends.
Misleading Numbers
New York’s numbers against tight ends are as good as they seem to be overall because they haven’t been tested.
Besides consistently facing teams that lack redoubtable targets at the position, the Giants have benefitted from injury luck.
When they faced the 49ers, they did not have to deal with George Kittle. Likewise, Philadelphia’s Zach Ertz missed his team’s contest against the Giants.
But teams are finding out New York’s weakness and are taking advantage.
In the past two weeks, Washington’s Lane Thomas accumulated 42 yards on three receptions against the Giants.
Then, Richard Rodgers produced 85 yards on six receptions for the Eagles.
Brady and Gronk
Gronk has been targeted six or eight times in each of Tampa Bay’s past three games. He has accumulated over 50 yards each time.
Besides renewing chemistry with Brady, he benefits from Brady’s overall proclivity to pass. Brady regularly attempts well over 30 passes and he’s completing 65.7 percent of them.
So Brady will launch plenty of accurate pass attempts and many of them are going to Gronk.
Best Bet: Gronkowski Over 42.5 Yards At -137 With Bovada
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Giants
Monday, November 2, 2020 at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey
Mike Evans
Over/Under 51.5 Yards
Overrated
Mike Evans has been Tampa Bay’s top wide receiver for long enough that the over/under on his yardage total represents an automatically tempting ‘over’ bet.
But oddsmakers are routinely overvaluing Evans: the “over” on his yardage total has failed to hit in five of his seven (71.4 percent) games.
James Bradberry
New York cornerback James Bradberry likes to shadow the opposing team’s top wide receiver.
Despite being well-tested, Bradberry is having a superb season by any measure.
Advanced metrics testify to the minimal extent to which opposing wide receivers are able to create any separation from Bradberry.
Wide receivers never burn Bradberry. He is also strong at the point of attack.
For the above reasons, he owns the NFL’s 12th best opposing passer rating when targeted.
Besides possessing top-level speed — he ranks in the 96th percentile in speed score — he also enjoys solid size and physicality at 6-1, 211 pounds. To go along with that size, he has excellent arm length and a more than adequate vertical ability.
Given his qualities, he excels against opposing top wide receivers. This season, he’s held Chicago’s Allen Robinson, L.A.’s Robert Woods, and Dallas’ Amari Cooper to fewer than 50 receiving yards.
Evans
In terms of physical skill set, Evans brings nothing that Bradberry hasn’t already successfully mastered this season.
Besides, Evans isn’t his usual self. An ankle injury has been nagging him in recent weeks. Coach Bruce Arians has publicly cited his resulting reduction in overall fitness.
His reduced fitness helps explain why he has accumulated 41 receiving yards or fewer in each of the past three games. He has a combined total of four targets in his past two contests.
These numbers are as meagre as they are despite the fact that he hasn’t had anybody on Bradberry’s level shadow him.
Also generally in this season, Evans is not showing promising chemistry with the team’s new quarterback, Tom Brady.
In four of his seven games so far, he has four targets or fewer. Likewise, in five of his seven games he has failed to eclipse 41 receiving yards.
Bradberry vs. Evans
As a former Carolina Panther, Bradberry knows Evans extremely well. They used to face off twice a year.
Bradberry always dominated the first match-up.
In their first match-up in 2017, Evans mustered 60 yards on five receptions. In 2018, he produced 16 yards on one reception. In 2019, he achieved 61 yards on four receptions.
One may say: wait, so Evans has often produced over 51 yards against Bradberry. So let’s bet the “over” 51 yards.
But in those games, Evans was targeted eight or 10 times. This season, he’s routinely receiving half or less than half of that number of targets.
Besides his ankle problems, he’s losing in targets to Julian Edel…err…I mean Scotty Miller and former long-time teammate Rob Gronkowski.
Brady loves Miller, who has drawn comparisons to his former favorite slot receiver in New England given his size and skill set. Brady already knows Gronk extremely well from their time in New England.
Plus, Bradberry is playing at a high-caliber level. He’ll give the already struggling Evans a test that, this year, will seem uniquely challenging to Evans.
With other tempting targets available to Brady and with the Giants’ inability to establish a consistent starter beyond Bradberry, Brady can easily find other options with which to exploit a Giants passing defense that is low-ranked despite Bradberry.
Best Bet: Mike Evans Under 51.5 Yards At -106 With Bovada
Rob Gronkowski
Over/Under 42.5 Yards
You want to appreciate how absurdly low Gronk's over/under is posted at.
His total is as low as it is for two reasons: one, he had a slow start to his season after taking all of last year off and not preparing sufficiently during the offseason.
Two, the Giants have strong overall numbers against tight ends.
Misleading Numbers
New York’s numbers against tight ends are as good as they seem to be overall because they haven’t been tested.
Besides consistently facing teams that lack redoubtable targets at the position, the Giants have benefitted from injury luck.
When they faced the 49ers, they did not have to deal with George Kittle. Likewise, Philadelphia’s Zach Ertz missed his team’s contest against the Giants.
But teams are finding out New York’s weakness and are taking advantage.
In the past two weeks, Washington’s Lane Thomas accumulated 42 yards on three receptions against the Giants.
Then, Richard Rodgers produced 85 yards on six receptions for the Eagles.
Brady and Gronk
Gronk has been targeted six or eight times in each of Tampa Bay’s past three games. He has accumulated over 50 yards each time.
Besides renewing chemistry with Brady, he benefits from Brady’s overall proclivity to pass. Brady regularly attempts well over 30 passes and he’s completing 65.7 percent of them.
So Brady will launch plenty of accurate pass attempts and many of them are going to Gronk.
Best Bet: Gronkowski Over 42.5 Yards At -137 With Bovada
