Browns vs. Texans Wild Card Game Betting Preview: Browns Out-Slug The Texans
Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans
Saturday, January 13, 2024 at NRG Stadium in Houston
The First Meeting
In Week 16, these two teams met in Houston, and the Browns won 36-22.
Houston's only scores came via a special teams touchdown and two garbage-time touchdowns when Cleveland led 36-7 in the fourth quarter.
What Will Change For Cleveland's Offense
The Browns scored 36 points primarily on the strength of Amari Cooper's 265 receiving yards, which accounted for all but 103 of Joe Flacco's passing yards.
Flacco and Cooper thrived in the deep passing game.
But deep balls will be harder for Flacco to throw in this rematch.
Deep balls require the quarterback to have more time to throw because his wide receiver needs more time to get further downfield.
In the Week 16 meeting, Houston played without its top two pass rushers, Jonathan Greenard and Will Anderson Jr.
Both players account for a combined 19.5 sacks. Their absence allowed Flacco more time to throw.
Moreover, the Texans had to adjust on the fly to injuries to defensive backs Steven Nelson and Jimmie Ward.
Since Week 16, Houston has adjusted to its injuries in the secondary, holding both Tennessee and Indianapolis' starting quarterbacks to fewer than 170 passing yards.
In Saturday's rematch, expect top corner Derek Stingley to be more involved in the effort to limit Cooper than he was in Week 16.
With Houston's pass defense stronger, Cleveland will score significantly less also because it won't be able to rely on its run game.
Running back Jerome Ford, with his poor vision, is a major downgrade from Nick Chubb.
He gets tackled in the backfield more than any other running back.
In Week 16, he ran for 25 yards on 15 carries, which is par for the course except against an extreme run funnel defense like the Jets.
Will CJ Stroud Make A Difference?
While CJ Stroud represents an obvious upgrade at quarterback over the quarterbacks who played for Houston in Week 16, he will still struggle significantly.
Bettors who think that the "over" will hit because Houston scored 22 points in Week 16 without Stroud and now get him back make a terrible argument.
Cleveland won't allow the garbage-time scoring in the rematch that it did in Week 16 because its offense won't score so many points.
Stroud won't push Cleveland's offense because he matches up terribly against the Browns defense.
First of all, Cleveland's defensive coordinator is man-heavy, and, as measured by completion percentage, passer rating, and accuracy rating, Stroud is worse against man than zone.
His worst game, in which he threw for 91 yards and mustered a 54.8 passer rating against the Jets, came against another man-heavy team.
Second of all, Houston's pass protection is weak – the Texans rank 22nd at limiting the rate at which their quarterback gets sacked.
Cleveland has one of the NFL's top pass rushes. Led by Myles Garrett, the Browns rank sixth in sack rate.
Cleveland's Road Numbers
To address the best argument for Houston's offense, much is made of Cleveland's home vs. away splits.
However, Cleveland's dominance in Week 16 shows that it can be just as good on the road as at home.
The Browns have had misfortune with injuries at quarterback and injuries to their top corner Denzel Ward as well as to Garrett, all of which have inflated Cleveland's points allowed total on the road.
With Ward and Garrett healthy and with a competent quarterback, the Browns' defense will be its usual excellent self, the one that ranks number one by a significant margin.
CJ Stroud vs. Good Pass Defenses
Houston has faced five teams that rank top eight in defending the pass.
In those games, the Texans' offense has scored 15 against the Browns, six against the Jets, 13 against the Panthers, 19 against the Falcons, and nine against the Ravens.
While great for a rookie, he clearly isn't good enough to navigate the league's top defenses, especially now that he misses his favorite target Tank Dell.
Being a rookie in his first playoff game will hurt him further, as the playoffs form a unique and difficult environment in which quarterbacks benefit from having built experience.
Rookie quarterbacks tend to lose in the playoffs and to suffer a passer rating below their regular season average.
Takeaway
Cleveland's offense will have a tougher time in this rematch against a Houston defense that has acclimated to its injuries on defense and that will be healthier with the return of at least one of its pass rushers who did not play in Week 16.
Yet Houston has lost all of its games against top-eight opposing pass defenses, whereas Flacco was productive against the Jets and the vastly improved Bears.
The Texans will struggle more than Cleveland also because they lack its playoff experience at quarterback.
In all of those games against top-eight pass defenses, except the one against Cleveland's, the final point amount totaled 40 points or fewer.
Best Bet: Browns ML at -147 with BetOnline & Under 44 at -110 with BetOnline
Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans
Saturday, January 13, 2024 at NRG Stadium in Houston
The First Meeting
In Week 16, these two teams met in Houston, and the Browns won 36-22.
Houston's only scores came via a special teams touchdown and two garbage-time touchdowns when Cleveland led 36-7 in the fourth quarter.
What Will Change For Cleveland's Offense
The Browns scored 36 points primarily on the strength of Amari Cooper's 265 receiving yards, which accounted for all but 103 of Joe Flacco's passing yards.
Flacco and Cooper thrived in the deep passing game.
But deep balls will be harder for Flacco to throw in this rematch.
Deep balls require the quarterback to have more time to throw because his wide receiver needs more time to get further downfield.
In the Week 16 meeting, Houston played without its top two pass rushers, Jonathan Greenard and Will Anderson Jr.
Both players account for a combined 19.5 sacks. Their absence allowed Flacco more time to throw.
Moreover, the Texans had to adjust on the fly to injuries to defensive backs Steven Nelson and Jimmie Ward.
Since Week 16, Houston has adjusted to its injuries in the secondary, holding both Tennessee and Indianapolis' starting quarterbacks to fewer than 170 passing yards.
In Saturday's rematch, expect top corner Derek Stingley to be more involved in the effort to limit Cooper than he was in Week 16.
With Houston's pass defense stronger, Cleveland will score significantly less also because it won't be able to rely on its run game.
Running back Jerome Ford, with his poor vision, is a major downgrade from Nick Chubb.
He gets tackled in the backfield more than any other running back.
In Week 16, he ran for 25 yards on 15 carries, which is par for the course except against an extreme run funnel defense like the Jets.
Will CJ Stroud Make A Difference?
While CJ Stroud represents an obvious upgrade at quarterback over the quarterbacks who played for Houston in Week 16, he will still struggle significantly.
Bettors who think that the "over" will hit because Houston scored 22 points in Week 16 without Stroud and now get him back make a terrible argument.
Cleveland won't allow the garbage-time scoring in the rematch that it did in Week 16 because its offense won't score so many points.
Stroud won't push Cleveland's offense because he matches up terribly against the Browns defense.
First of all, Cleveland's defensive coordinator is man-heavy, and, as measured by completion percentage, passer rating, and accuracy rating, Stroud is worse against man than zone.
His worst game, in which he threw for 91 yards and mustered a 54.8 passer rating against the Jets, came against another man-heavy team.
Second of all, Houston's pass protection is weak – the Texans rank 22nd at limiting the rate at which their quarterback gets sacked.
Cleveland has one of the NFL's top pass rushes. Led by Myles Garrett, the Browns rank sixth in sack rate.
Cleveland's Road Numbers
To address the best argument for Houston's offense, much is made of Cleveland's home vs. away splits.
However, Cleveland's dominance in Week 16 shows that it can be just as good on the road as at home.
The Browns have had misfortune with injuries at quarterback and injuries to their top corner Denzel Ward as well as to Garrett, all of which have inflated Cleveland's points allowed total on the road.
With Ward and Garrett healthy and with a competent quarterback, the Browns' defense will be its usual excellent self, the one that ranks number one by a significant margin.
CJ Stroud vs. Good Pass Defenses
Houston has faced five teams that rank top eight in defending the pass.
In those games, the Texans' offense has scored 15 against the Browns, six against the Jets, 13 against the Panthers, 19 against the Falcons, and nine against the Ravens.
While great for a rookie, he clearly isn't good enough to navigate the league's top defenses, especially now that he misses his favorite target Tank Dell.
Being a rookie in his first playoff game will hurt him further, as the playoffs form a unique and difficult environment in which quarterbacks benefit from having built experience.
Rookie quarterbacks tend to lose in the playoffs and to suffer a passer rating below their regular season average.
Takeaway
Cleveland's offense will have a tougher time in this rematch against a Houston defense that has acclimated to its injuries on defense and that will be healthier with the return of at least one of its pass rushers who did not play in Week 16.
Yet Houston has lost all of its games against top-eight opposing pass defenses, whereas Flacco was productive against the Jets and the vastly improved Bears.
The Texans will struggle more than Cleveland also because they lack its playoff experience at quarterback.
In all of those games against top-eight pass defenses, except the one against Cleveland's, the final point amount totaled 40 points or fewer.
Best Bet: Browns ML at -147 with BetOnline & Under 44 at -110 with BetOnline
