Browns vs. Texans NFL Week 13 Betting Preview: Underdog Texans to Spoil Deshaun Watson's Return
Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium in Houston
The Odds
When I saw that these two teams were playing each other, I guessed that, because they were on the road, the Browns would be favored by a couple of points.
I find it shocking and absurd that, especially on the road, Cleveland is favored by around a touchdown.
It is true that Houston has lost four straight games by eight or more points.
But the Texans were facing winning teams -- they lost to the Eagles, the red-hot Commanders, and the Dolphins by double digits, and they lost to the Giants by eight points.
Cleveland, however, is not a winning team. The Browns are currently 4-7.
Deshaun Watson's Return
One might expect Cleveland to play like a winning team because quarterback Deshaun Watson has been reinstated from his suspension and is therefore eligible to play.
He will start for Cleveland on Sunday.
But we need to keep in mind that real life is not a video game.
You can't just plug in a player with a strong reputation and expect him to play as well as his reputation suggests he will.
Watson is going to be worse than Cleveland's now backup quarterback because Watson hasn't played a game in almost two years.
His last game was the final one in the 2020 season.
So, he will be dealing with a lot of rust.
Plus, he played that team for an entirely different team.
He has yet to develop chemistry with his current teammates, which include different wide receivers than the ones he threw to as a Texan.
Houston's Pass Defense
I get that Houston's pass defense isn't the best, but it's far from terrible. It is far from the easy test that many bettors expect Watson to benefit from.
To be exact, Houston ranks 17thin pass defense.
The Texans have limited sub-elite quarterbacks.
Commander quarterback Taylor Heinicke, for example, mustered 191 passing yards against Houston.
Jaguar Trevor Lawrence and Bronco Russell Wilson are other quarterbacks who produced poor numbers against the Texans' evidently capable pass defense.
Watson is not ready to be sub-elite given his lack of playing form, so he will be another quarterback to struggle against Houston's pass defense.
Obviously, the Browns feature an elite running back, but they are favored so heavily because Watson is expected to produce magic.
One running back won't suffice for Cleveland to cover the large spread.
Houston's Rush Attack
Plus, the Brown defense is vulnerable to opposing rush attacks.
Houston's rush attack might actually be stronger than Cleveland's on Sunday.
Cleveland is repeatedly vulnerable especially to good running backs.
The Browns have beaten teams that haven't utilized their running backs much or well -- they beat Tampa Bay, for example, which was just such a team.
But Houston is not such a team -- the Texans have an effective running back, and they are not afraid to having him accrue upwards of 30 carries in a game.
Dameon Pierce has ran for over 90 yards in five different games this year.
He's struggled against top run defenses like Washington's but thrived against low-ranking run defenses like the Chargers'.
Cleveland, which ranks 23rd in run defense, certainly belongs in the latter category.
The Verdict
Houston's pass attack will outperform Cleveland's because quarterback Davis Mills is, according to career stats, uniquely better at home than he is on the road.
Conversely, Watson is going to struggle in the initial stages of his return to regular season action.
Expect a close game in which Houston's balanced offense led by Pierce takes advantage of the Browns' vulnerable defense while Cleveland's offense tries to rely too heavily on its starting running back.
The Browns are also just not the winning team to prolong Houston's soon-to-end streak of double-digit losses.
Excepting the game in which they scored a last-second defensive touchdown, they won by more than six points on one occasion, and that occasion included Cincinnati's non-existent rush attack.
Best Bet: Texans +7.5 at -115 with Bookmaker
Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium in Houston
The Odds
When I saw that these two teams were playing each other, I guessed that, because they were on the road, the Browns would be favored by a couple of points.
I find it shocking and absurd that, especially on the road, Cleveland is favored by around a touchdown.
It is true that Houston has lost four straight games by eight or more points.
But the Texans were facing winning teams -- they lost to the Eagles, the red-hot Commanders, and the Dolphins by double digits, and they lost to the Giants by eight points.
Cleveland, however, is not a winning team. The Browns are currently 4-7.
Deshaun Watson's Return
One might expect Cleveland to play like a winning team because quarterback Deshaun Watson has been reinstated from his suspension and is therefore eligible to play.
He will start for Cleveland on Sunday.
But we need to keep in mind that real life is not a video game.
You can't just plug in a player with a strong reputation and expect him to play as well as his reputation suggests he will.
Watson is going to be worse than Cleveland's now backup quarterback because Watson hasn't played a game in almost two years.
His last game was the final one in the 2020 season.
So, he will be dealing with a lot of rust.
Plus, he played that team for an entirely different team.
He has yet to develop chemistry with his current teammates, which include different wide receivers than the ones he threw to as a Texan.
Houston's Pass Defense
I get that Houston's pass defense isn't the best, but it's far from terrible. It is far from the easy test that many bettors expect Watson to benefit from.
To be exact, Houston ranks 17thin pass defense.
The Texans have limited sub-elite quarterbacks.
Commander quarterback Taylor Heinicke, for example, mustered 191 passing yards against Houston.
Jaguar Trevor Lawrence and Bronco Russell Wilson are other quarterbacks who produced poor numbers against the Texans' evidently capable pass defense.
Watson is not ready to be sub-elite given his lack of playing form, so he will be another quarterback to struggle against Houston's pass defense.
Obviously, the Browns feature an elite running back, but they are favored so heavily because Watson is expected to produce magic.
One running back won't suffice for Cleveland to cover the large spread.
Houston's Rush Attack
Plus, the Brown defense is vulnerable to opposing rush attacks.
Houston's rush attack might actually be stronger than Cleveland's on Sunday.
Cleveland is repeatedly vulnerable especially to good running backs.
The Browns have beaten teams that haven't utilized their running backs much or well -- they beat Tampa Bay, for example, which was just such a team.
But Houston is not such a team -- the Texans have an effective running back, and they are not afraid to having him accrue upwards of 30 carries in a game.
Dameon Pierce has ran for over 90 yards in five different games this year.
He's struggled against top run defenses like Washington's but thrived against low-ranking run defenses like the Chargers'.
Cleveland, which ranks 23rd in run defense, certainly belongs in the latter category.
The Verdict
Houston's pass attack will outperform Cleveland's because quarterback Davis Mills is, according to career stats, uniquely better at home than he is on the road.
Conversely, Watson is going to struggle in the initial stages of his return to regular season action.
Expect a close game in which Houston's balanced offense led by Pierce takes advantage of the Browns' vulnerable defense while Cleveland's offense tries to rely too heavily on its starting running back.
The Browns are also just not the winning team to prolong Houston's soon-to-end streak of double-digit losses.
Excepting the game in which they scored a last-second defensive touchdown, they won by more than six points on one occasion, and that occasion included Cincinnati's non-existent rush attack.
Best Bet: Texans +7.5 at -115 with Bookmaker
