Browns Bounce Back On Monday Night Football Against The Jets
NFL Pick: Browns ML
Odds
Oddsmakers opened Cleveland as three-point favorites. But after a day's action which saw Cleveland disappoint its massive public hype in a 30-point home loss to Tennessee, the spread dropped almost universally by at least 1.5 points.
Avoid The Classic Week 1 Overreaction
If Week 1 is a time of unrealistic expectation, Week 2 is one of unrealistic overreaction. No, Cleveland isn't the 2007 Patriots. But it also isn't the 2016 Browns.
There were many factors that led Cleveland to be blown out that won't repeat themselves in Week 2. For starters, Cleveland lost both left tackles by the end of the second quarter -- the starter to ejection and the backup to injury.
At this point, the game was still close. But the Browns had to re-shift their entire offensive line which they were utterly unprepared to do. The lack of chemistry and the reduction in quality kept Baker Mayfield from ever growing comfortable in the pocket.
The second non-repeatable aspect is that Cleveland was pass-centric, throwing the ball 18 more times than it ran. Its offense was hindered by a lack of balance that could have made it less predictable.
Thirdly, the Browns committed 18 penalties, many of which were momentum-killing.
Fourthly, Cleveland faced what will be one of the league's top defenses that's strong at all three levels.
New York's Defense Is Not Tennessee's
Baker Mayfield entered Sunday's game with losing SU and ATS records with more interceptions than touchdowns against top-19 passing defenses. New York's defense in general represents a significant downgrade from Tennessee's.
Linebacker is one position of weakness for the Jets. They missed Avery Williamson and Brandon Copeland, two key starters, heading into their opener with Buffalo.
When the Bills made their comeback from a 16-3 deficit, CJ Mosley had exited the game. Mosley had forced two turnovers and was, intangibly, a leader, communicator, organizer, and bringer of defensive energy. His quality and experience could go missing against the Browns as he's currently listed as 'questionable' with a groin injury.
In the front seven, Quinnen Williams is an important run stuffer for New York's defensive line. He's dealing with an ankle injury that necessitated a walking boot.
Another sore spot for the Jets is their secondary, which is thin past Trumaine Johnson. It's characterized by some flux and is filled with unproven ability as no other defensive back has played in more than 48 games. John Brown and other Buffalo receivers repeatedly exposed its vulnerability.
Cleveland's Offense Will Have An Easier Time
Against a Jets front seven bereft of quality linebacking, I expect the Browns to pound the rock.
Nick Chubb came on strong towards the end of last season with two 100-yard efforts in his final three contests and three games with over five yards per carry in his final four. Behind a Browns' offensive line that was in shambles for a half, Chubb managed to produce 75 yards on 4.4 YPC.
With stronger commitment to the running game, Cleveland benefits from offensive balance and from not having Mayfield try to do everything and push past himself.
Nor should he have to when the Browns are loaded with weapons to exploit New York's weakness in the secondary, a quarterback more accurate than Buffalo's Josh Allen and receivers more dangerous than John Brown.
Cleveland's Defense Will Have An Easier Time
One mismatch proved to be Tennessee's rush attack against Cleveland's rush defense. The former was led by bruiser Derrick Henry and a Titans offensive line that PFF graded top-five coming into the season.
For comparison's sake, New York's offensive line graded 28th. Even assuming that it overcomes the lack of chemistry that it faced after never before having played together or with Le'Veon Bell and after offseason injuries ensured that it barely had time to practice together, the ability isn't there to consistently create wide enough running lanes.
A Browns defensive line led by Myles Garrett, who had 13.5 sacks last year and two last week and was graded as one of the top edge defenders against the run, will help challenge New York's offensive line. He'll square off with the league's smallest left tackle in Kelvin Beachum. He's complemented on the edge by Olivier Vernon, who's coming off a seven-sack season in 11 games with the Giants.
Sam Darnold had an off day against Buffalo as he missed many open receivers downfield. I assume that he'll be sharper against Cleveland. But he'll run into a secondary led by Pro Bowler Denzel Ward, last year's top-graded cornerback of the AFC North as a rookie, and speedy Greedy Williams, who was justifiably expected to make an instant impact for his ability to lock onto receivers.
Williams beat out Terrance Mitchell for the starting position. Last year, the more experienced Mitchell ranked top-11 league-wide in several categories like coverage rating and catch rate allowed.
Conclusion
Expect a balanced offensive attack from Cleveland. Nick Chubb will plow past a beleaguered (with or without Mosley and Williams) Jet front seven while Cleveland's loaded passing attack will exploit New York's secondary.
On the other side, Darnold and Bell will struggle for rhythm behind a weak offensive line that has its hands full with the likes of Garrett and Vernon while New York's improved receiving corps contends with Cleveland's corners.
NFL Pick: Browns ML
Odds
Oddsmakers opened Cleveland as three-point favorites. But after a day's action which saw Cleveland disappoint its massive public hype in a 30-point home loss to Tennessee, the spread dropped almost universally by at least 1.5 points.
Avoid The Classic Week 1 Overreaction
If Week 1 is a time of unrealistic expectation, Week 2 is one of unrealistic overreaction. No, Cleveland isn't the 2007 Patriots. But it also isn't the 2016 Browns.
There were many factors that led Cleveland to be blown out that won't repeat themselves in Week 2. For starters, Cleveland lost both left tackles by the end of the second quarter -- the starter to ejection and the backup to injury.
At this point, the game was still close. But the Browns had to re-shift their entire offensive line which they were utterly unprepared to do. The lack of chemistry and the reduction in quality kept Baker Mayfield from ever growing comfortable in the pocket.
The second non-repeatable aspect is that Cleveland was pass-centric, throwing the ball 18 more times than it ran. Its offense was hindered by a lack of balance that could have made it less predictable.
Thirdly, the Browns committed 18 penalties, many of which were momentum-killing.
Fourthly, Cleveland faced what will be one of the league's top defenses that's strong at all three levels.
New York's Defense Is Not Tennessee's
Baker Mayfield entered Sunday's game with losing SU and ATS records with more interceptions than touchdowns against top-19 passing defenses. New York's defense in general represents a significant downgrade from Tennessee's.
Linebacker is one position of weakness for the Jets. They missed Avery Williamson and Brandon Copeland, two key starters, heading into their opener with Buffalo.
When the Bills made their comeback from a 16-3 deficit, CJ Mosley had exited the game. Mosley had forced two turnovers and was, intangibly, a leader, communicator, organizer, and bringer of defensive energy. His quality and experience could go missing against the Browns as he's currently listed as 'questionable' with a groin injury.
In the front seven, Quinnen Williams is an important run stuffer for New York's defensive line. He's dealing with an ankle injury that necessitated a walking boot.
Another sore spot for the Jets is their secondary, which is thin past Trumaine Johnson. It's characterized by some flux and is filled with unproven ability as no other defensive back has played in more than 48 games. John Brown and other Buffalo receivers repeatedly exposed its vulnerability.
Cleveland's Offense Will Have An Easier Time
Against a Jets front seven bereft of quality linebacking, I expect the Browns to pound the rock.
Nick Chubb came on strong towards the end of last season with two 100-yard efforts in his final three contests and three games with over five yards per carry in his final four. Behind a Browns' offensive line that was in shambles for a half, Chubb managed to produce 75 yards on 4.4 YPC.
With stronger commitment to the running game, Cleveland benefits from offensive balance and from not having Mayfield try to do everything and push past himself.
Nor should he have to when the Browns are loaded with weapons to exploit New York's weakness in the secondary, a quarterback more accurate than Buffalo's Josh Allen and receivers more dangerous than John Brown.
Cleveland's Defense Will Have An Easier Time
One mismatch proved to be Tennessee's rush attack against Cleveland's rush defense. The former was led by bruiser Derrick Henry and a Titans offensive line that PFF graded top-five coming into the season.
For comparison's sake, New York's offensive line graded 28th. Even assuming that it overcomes the lack of chemistry that it faced after never before having played together or with Le'Veon Bell and after offseason injuries ensured that it barely had time to practice together, the ability isn't there to consistently create wide enough running lanes.
A Browns defensive line led by Myles Garrett, who had 13.5 sacks last year and two last week and was graded as one of the top edge defenders against the run, will help challenge New York's offensive line. He'll square off with the league's smallest left tackle in Kelvin Beachum. He's complemented on the edge by Olivier Vernon, who's coming off a seven-sack season in 11 games with the Giants.
Sam Darnold had an off day against Buffalo as he missed many open receivers downfield. I assume that he'll be sharper against Cleveland. But he'll run into a secondary led by Pro Bowler Denzel Ward, last year's top-graded cornerback of the AFC North as a rookie, and speedy Greedy Williams, who was justifiably expected to make an instant impact for his ability to lock onto receivers.
Williams beat out Terrance Mitchell for the starting position. Last year, the more experienced Mitchell ranked top-11 league-wide in several categories like coverage rating and catch rate allowed.
Conclusion
Expect a balanced offensive attack from Cleveland. Nick Chubb will plow past a beleaguered (with or without Mosley and Williams) Jet front seven while Cleveland's loaded passing attack will exploit New York's secondary.
On the other side, Darnold and Bell will struggle for rhythm behind a weak offensive line that has its hands full with the likes of Garrett and Vernon while New York's improved receiving corps contends with Cleveland's corners.
