NFL Preseason Week 1 Parlay for Saturday's Games at +265 Odds
Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Saturday, August 14, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville
Cleveland's Chemistry
One cannot fail to observe in the Browns the astounding level of continuity that they enjoy on both sides of the ball.
On offense, the Browns have about as much continuity as possible. They return all 11 of their starters from last season.
The defense, too, returns a lot of starters and also features big-name veterans who have negligible need to get in preseason work.
For these reasons, one ought to expect very little from Cleveland starters.
I suspect that this minimal level of expectation from Cleveland starters explains why Jacksonville is favored and why Jacksonville seems to be a popular bet.
But there are two main reasons why I dislike Jacksonville especially as the favored team: lack of depth and inexperience.
Cleveland's Depth
On both sides of the ball, Cleveland enjoys significant depth and far-reaching degrees of quality, which is decisive in a game that will be dominated by backups.
So even though the starters will see little to no action, there is still going to be quality on the field.
In the offseason, the Browns especially addressed an issue in secondary depth that was magnified by Greedy Williams' absence last year. They acquired multiple guys in this area via the draft and free agency with one example being first-rounder Greg Newsome II.
Cleveland's depth in pass defense will complement a pass rush and front seven that has an easy test in Jacksonville's regularly poor offensive line.
Based on the offseason, it seems that Jacksonville will try to rely on its coaching staff to work a miracle in a group of personnel whose continuity is unfortunately very high.
On offense, the Browns have a well-established veteran, in Case Keenum, behind Baker Mayfield. Multiple starting-caliber players bless the running back and tight end positions.
Whereas Jacksonville has a lot of undecorated youth to offer after currently injured top receiver DJ Chark, reports are exceedingly positive about Cleveland's physical freak, Donovan Peoples-Jones.
Jacksonville Has A Lot of Work To Do
On top of the Jags being far behind in terms of player quality, there is also significant newness in Jacksonville. Most obviously, there is a new quarterback who has to develop chemistry with his teammates on offense.
The coaching staff is also entirely new. Play-caller Darrell Bevell is no exception. This newness is also apparent in the playbook.
One obvious way of identifying what works best for the offense is to participate in an actual game and Week 1 offers this very opportunity.
The same things can be said about a defense that is likewise very young and whose coaching staff received an overhaul after the defense finished 31st last year in total yards allowed.
Jaguar Quarterbacks
Number one pick Trevor Lawrence will play a significant role in this game.
According to reports from Jacksonville, his progress has been good, as evident in the stats that he's accrued in game simulations and in his level of success in other forms of practice.
It's hard to develop optimism for now, though, given the fact that Lawrence has gotten to face a young Jaguar defense that was one of the NFL's worst last year as measured by various statistics, including pass defense, and is learning a new scheme.
This will be Lawrence's first taste of preseason action, going against the depth and quality that Cleveland has to offer. Only a short time ago, Coach Meyer specified that Lawrence isn't ready to start an NFL game. But there's nothing to lose in the preseason.
Former starter Gardner Minshew, who has long been figured out by defenses, can't be expected to do better given his and the offense's tendency last year to suffer in Chark's absence. Not that Chark, who vociferously called out Minshew for his poor passes and poor overall play, was a fan of the former sixth-rounder.
Total Verdict
Motivation is a valuable psychological tool to consider.
For the preseason, one can expect players to play harder when their jobs are on the line.
Cleveland added a lot especially to their linebacker and secondary groups.
These additions, in addition to building depth and quality, create competition for starting positions.
I like the "under" because of the Browns' position battles on defense adding motivation to their already existent advantage in quality on the field.
Jacksonville's very new and also still very bad -- especially after losing Chark for now and adding about nothing to the offensive line -- offense merits minimal optimism.
For the Browns, DPJ will be exciting in addition to the load of starting-caliber players. But the veteran Keenum has nothing to prove and, besides the fact that he's going up against a young defense that was statistically very low-ranked last year, has little impetus to accomplish something spectacular.
I like the deeper and more well-rounded Browns to rout new, inexperienced, unproven, barely building Jacksonville in a low-scoring game.
Best Bet: Parlay Browns +1.5 at -105 & Under 37.5 at -115 at +265 odds with Bovada
Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Saturday, August 14, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville
Cleveland's Chemistry
One cannot fail to observe in the Browns the astounding level of continuity that they enjoy on both sides of the ball.
On offense, the Browns have about as much continuity as possible. They return all 11 of their starters from last season.
The defense, too, returns a lot of starters and also features big-name veterans who have negligible need to get in preseason work.
For these reasons, one ought to expect very little from Cleveland starters.
I suspect that this minimal level of expectation from Cleveland starters explains why Jacksonville is favored and why Jacksonville seems to be a popular bet.
But there are two main reasons why I dislike Jacksonville especially as the favored team: lack of depth and inexperience.
Cleveland's Depth
On both sides of the ball, Cleveland enjoys significant depth and far-reaching degrees of quality, which is decisive in a game that will be dominated by backups.
So even though the starters will see little to no action, there is still going to be quality on the field.
In the offseason, the Browns especially addressed an issue in secondary depth that was magnified by Greedy Williams' absence last year. They acquired multiple guys in this area via the draft and free agency with one example being first-rounder Greg Newsome II.
Cleveland's depth in pass defense will complement a pass rush and front seven that has an easy test in Jacksonville's regularly poor offensive line.
Based on the offseason, it seems that Jacksonville will try to rely on its coaching staff to work a miracle in a group of personnel whose continuity is unfortunately very high.
On offense, the Browns have a well-established veteran, in Case Keenum, behind Baker Mayfield. Multiple starting-caliber players bless the running back and tight end positions.
Whereas Jacksonville has a lot of undecorated youth to offer after currently injured top receiver DJ Chark, reports are exceedingly positive about Cleveland's physical freak, Donovan Peoples-Jones.
Jacksonville Has A Lot of Work To Do
On top of the Jags being far behind in terms of player quality, there is also significant newness in Jacksonville. Most obviously, there is a new quarterback who has to develop chemistry with his teammates on offense.
The coaching staff is also entirely new. Play-caller Darrell Bevell is no exception. This newness is also apparent in the playbook.
One obvious way of identifying what works best for the offense is to participate in an actual game and Week 1 offers this very opportunity.
The same things can be said about a defense that is likewise very young and whose coaching staff received an overhaul after the defense finished 31st last year in total yards allowed.
Jaguar Quarterbacks
Number one pick Trevor Lawrence will play a significant role in this game.
According to reports from Jacksonville, his progress has been good, as evident in the stats that he's accrued in game simulations and in his level of success in other forms of practice.
It's hard to develop optimism for now, though, given the fact that Lawrence has gotten to face a young Jaguar defense that was one of the NFL's worst last year as measured by various statistics, including pass defense, and is learning a new scheme.
This will be Lawrence's first taste of preseason action, going against the depth and quality that Cleveland has to offer. Only a short time ago, Coach Meyer specified that Lawrence isn't ready to start an NFL game. But there's nothing to lose in the preseason.
Former starter Gardner Minshew, who has long been figured out by defenses, can't be expected to do better given his and the offense's tendency last year to suffer in Chark's absence. Not that Chark, who vociferously called out Minshew for his poor passes and poor overall play, was a fan of the former sixth-rounder.
Total Verdict
Motivation is a valuable psychological tool to consider.
For the preseason, one can expect players to play harder when their jobs are on the line.
Cleveland added a lot especially to their linebacker and secondary groups.
These additions, in addition to building depth and quality, create competition for starting positions.
I like the "under" because of the Browns' position battles on defense adding motivation to their already existent advantage in quality on the field.
Jacksonville's very new and also still very bad -- especially after losing Chark for now and adding about nothing to the offensive line -- offense merits minimal optimism.
For the Browns, DPJ will be exciting in addition to the load of starting-caliber players. But the veteran Keenum has nothing to prove and, besides the fact that he's going up against a young defense that was statistically very low-ranked last year, has little impetus to accomplish something spectacular.
I like the deeper and more well-rounded Browns to rout new, inexperienced, unproven, barely building Jacksonville in a low-scoring game.
Best Bet: Parlay Browns +1.5 at -105 & Under 37.5 at -115 at +265 odds with Bovada
