NFL Parlay for Sunday’s Games at +271 Odds
Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville
Browns Defense
Cleveland’s defense has been at its worst on the road.
Away from Cleveland, the Browns have yielded 38 points in Baltimore, 38 in Dallas, 38 in Pittsburgh, and 34 in Cincinnati.
Almost no matter how well or how poorly the opposing offense ranks, Cleveland reliably allows over 30 points in its road game.
This trend promises to continue given the absence of key defensive players for Cleveland.
One notable absence is that of Myles Garrett, who easily leads the team in sacks. He has 9.5 sacks, 4.5 more than any other teammate.
But the most important absence is that of top cornerback Denzel Ward. His absence likely explains why the point total rose to where it stands now.
Despite being tested heavily, Ward was allowing an 82.3 passer rating and 57.6 completion percentage when targeted.
So Cleveland’s pass defense ranks in the bottom half despite Ward. After Ward, there is a drop-off in coverage ability.
Currently, Terrance Mitchell gets targeted the most for Cleveland. Because he’s allowing a 101.8 passer rating when targeted, opposing offenses will want to keep picking on him.
Jacksonville Offense vs. Cleveland Defense
Without having to face Garrett, Jacksonville’s offensive line dodges a bullet.
If quarterback Jake Luton gets the start, his lack of mobility won’t be so problematic.
If Gardner Minshew is good to go, then Jacksonville has more of a scrambling-type playmaker who can make things happen with his legs.
Minshew likes to check down and get the running back involved in the passing game.
Defensively, the Browns are vulnerable to pass-catching running backs as evidenced by their catch rate and yardage success given the minimal number of targets that Cleveland has encountered so far.
So expect James Robinson, whose season-best receiving performance was six receptions for 83 yards against Miami, to be effective.
Luton has a better arm then Minshew and would capitalize with deep balls to the speedy DJ Chark, who is Jacksonville’s leading receiver and top vertical threat.
Either way, Chark will play all the more productively since he won’t have to contend with Ward.
Chark’s involvement is crucial because the Jaguars tend to struggle when he struggles or is absent.
In turn, in Jacksonville’s highest scoring games — like when it scored 25 against Cincinnati or 30 against Tennessee -- Chark produced his highest yardage totals of the season.
Jacksonville Defense
2020 presents somewhat of a different Jacksonville defense because of the emphasis that it has placed on improving against the run.
The best way to beat Jacksonville is through the air. Its games against Tennessee provides anecdotal evidence.
In previous years, the Titans thrived against Jacksonville because they featured physically dominant running back Derrick Henry.
But this year, Henry only managed 84 yards on 25 carries against the Jaguars. But the Titans still scored 33 points because quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw for four touchdowns.
Right now, the weakness of Jacksonville’s defense is its secondary which is ridden with the effects of key player departures, youth, injuries, questionable scheme, and overall ineptitude.
Cleveland Offense vs. Jacksonville Defense
But Cleveland is the last team that wants to take advantage of Jacksonville’s primary defensive weakness because it ranks last in the NFL in pass play percentage.
The Browns run very little 11 personnel, which means that they lack the interest that other teams having in spreading out defenses with three wide receiver-sets.
Instead, Cleveland wants to lineup in multi-tight end formations. It will run more with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
In focusing on the run, the Browns contend with the strength of the Jaguars’ defense, which ranks a modest 14th in allowing 4.3 YPC.
Total
Particularly without the injured Odell Beckham Jr., and with Baker Mayfield as inaccurate with his ball placement as he’s been, Cleveland lacks the vertical weapons to hurt Jacksonville downfield.
Instead, Cleveland mainly has possession receivers. Mayfield’s favorite target is Jarvis Landry, who has more than twice as many receptions and targets as any other healthy Brown receiver.
Landry, though, ranks well outside the top 50 in yards per reception and yards per target.
Mayfield is only barely completing 60 percent of his passes while accruing only seven YPA.
When Mayfield does complete a pass, it’s likely to someone like Landry who won’t easily accrue yardage.
So Cleveland will keep the ball on the ground and grind out drives against Jacksonville’s defense.
Now, you may ask about the trend for Cleveland’s defense on the road. The offenses that scored 30+ at home against the Browns ranked in general much more highly than Jacksonville’s.
Jacksonville is still a team that struggles to reach 20 points — it averages 20.8 on the season.
I expect a point total for Jacksonville closer to its average. The teams that scored 30+ against Cleveland generally had quarterbacks throw for video game-like yardage totals. But Jacksonville’s quarterbacks aren’t going to throw for 400+ yards.
You may also ask about Ward’s absence. But Chark won’t go too crazy with Kevin Johnson covering him. The former first-round pick yields a 76.7 passer rating, although he hardly gets targeted.
While Johnson focuses more on the slot, he is historically comfortable covering receivers on the outside.
The Verdict
On the road and without Garrett or Ward, Cleveland’s defense will allow Jacksonville’s offense to be relatively comfortable.
Offensively, the Browns won’t make Jacksonville’s defense uncomfortable with its run-first attitude.
For the above reasons, expect a Jaguar cover in a game that stays under the inflated total.
Best Bet: Parlay Jaguars +6.5 at -108 with Under 49.5 at -108 at +271 Odds with Heritage
Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville
Browns Defense
Cleveland’s defense has been at its worst on the road.
Away from Cleveland, the Browns have yielded 38 points in Baltimore, 38 in Dallas, 38 in Pittsburgh, and 34 in Cincinnati.
Almost no matter how well or how poorly the opposing offense ranks, Cleveland reliably allows over 30 points in its road game.
This trend promises to continue given the absence of key defensive players for Cleveland.
One notable absence is that of Myles Garrett, who easily leads the team in sacks. He has 9.5 sacks, 4.5 more than any other teammate.
But the most important absence is that of top cornerback Denzel Ward. His absence likely explains why the point total rose to where it stands now.
Despite being tested heavily, Ward was allowing an 82.3 passer rating and 57.6 completion percentage when targeted.
So Cleveland’s pass defense ranks in the bottom half despite Ward. After Ward, there is a drop-off in coverage ability.
Currently, Terrance Mitchell gets targeted the most for Cleveland. Because he’s allowing a 101.8 passer rating when targeted, opposing offenses will want to keep picking on him.
Jacksonville Offense vs. Cleveland Defense
Without having to face Garrett, Jacksonville’s offensive line dodges a bullet.
If quarterback Jake Luton gets the start, his lack of mobility won’t be so problematic.
If Gardner Minshew is good to go, then Jacksonville has more of a scrambling-type playmaker who can make things happen with his legs.
Minshew likes to check down and get the running back involved in the passing game.
Defensively, the Browns are vulnerable to pass-catching running backs as evidenced by their catch rate and yardage success given the minimal number of targets that Cleveland has encountered so far.
So expect James Robinson, whose season-best receiving performance was six receptions for 83 yards against Miami, to be effective.
Luton has a better arm then Minshew and would capitalize with deep balls to the speedy DJ Chark, who is Jacksonville’s leading receiver and top vertical threat.
Either way, Chark will play all the more productively since he won’t have to contend with Ward.
Chark’s involvement is crucial because the Jaguars tend to struggle when he struggles or is absent.
In turn, in Jacksonville’s highest scoring games — like when it scored 25 against Cincinnati or 30 against Tennessee -- Chark produced his highest yardage totals of the season.
Jacksonville Defense
2020 presents somewhat of a different Jacksonville defense because of the emphasis that it has placed on improving against the run.
The best way to beat Jacksonville is through the air. Its games against Tennessee provides anecdotal evidence.
In previous years, the Titans thrived against Jacksonville because they featured physically dominant running back Derrick Henry.
But this year, Henry only managed 84 yards on 25 carries against the Jaguars. But the Titans still scored 33 points because quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw for four touchdowns.
Right now, the weakness of Jacksonville’s defense is its secondary which is ridden with the effects of key player departures, youth, injuries, questionable scheme, and overall ineptitude.
Cleveland Offense vs. Jacksonville Defense
But Cleveland is the last team that wants to take advantage of Jacksonville’s primary defensive weakness because it ranks last in the NFL in pass play percentage.
The Browns run very little 11 personnel, which means that they lack the interest that other teams having in spreading out defenses with three wide receiver-sets.
Instead, Cleveland wants to lineup in multi-tight end formations. It will run more with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
In focusing on the run, the Browns contend with the strength of the Jaguars’ defense, which ranks a modest 14th in allowing 4.3 YPC.
Total
Particularly without the injured Odell Beckham Jr., and with Baker Mayfield as inaccurate with his ball placement as he’s been, Cleveland lacks the vertical weapons to hurt Jacksonville downfield.
Instead, Cleveland mainly has possession receivers. Mayfield’s favorite target is Jarvis Landry, who has more than twice as many receptions and targets as any other healthy Brown receiver.
Landry, though, ranks well outside the top 50 in yards per reception and yards per target.
Mayfield is only barely completing 60 percent of his passes while accruing only seven YPA.
When Mayfield does complete a pass, it’s likely to someone like Landry who won’t easily accrue yardage.
So Cleveland will keep the ball on the ground and grind out drives against Jacksonville’s defense.
Now, you may ask about the trend for Cleveland’s defense on the road. The offenses that scored 30+ at home against the Browns ranked in general much more highly than Jacksonville’s.
Jacksonville is still a team that struggles to reach 20 points — it averages 20.8 on the season.
I expect a point total for Jacksonville closer to its average. The teams that scored 30+ against Cleveland generally had quarterbacks throw for video game-like yardage totals. But Jacksonville’s quarterbacks aren’t going to throw for 400+ yards.
You may also ask about Ward’s absence. But Chark won’t go too crazy with Kevin Johnson covering him. The former first-round pick yields a 76.7 passer rating, although he hardly gets targeted.
While Johnson focuses more on the slot, he is historically comfortable covering receivers on the outside.
The Verdict
On the road and without Garrett or Ward, Cleveland’s defense will allow Jacksonville’s offense to be relatively comfortable.
Offensively, the Browns won’t make Jacksonville’s defense uncomfortable with its run-first attitude.
For the above reasons, expect a Jaguar cover in a game that stays under the inflated total.
Best Bet: Parlay Jaguars +6.5 at -108 with Under 49.5 at -108 at +271 Odds with Heritage
