Browns vs. Chiefs NFL Week 1 Pick and Odds Breakdown
Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, September 12, 2021 at 4:25 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
Cleveland's Offense: Striking A Balance
As everybody knows, the Brown offense is run-first.
This offense will often utilize heavy sets to help maximize the blocking for running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
Not that both players need a lot of blocking to help them. In particular, Chubb excels at maintaining balance and staying upright while defenders try to tackle him.
Over the past two seasons, no running back has a higher broken tackle rate than Chubb.
While Hunt does not boast quite this same level of success at breaking tackles, he has likewise cultivated a reputation for himself of being difficult to bring down.
Everything starts with these two running backs also because Baker Mayfield thrives when he is executing play-action passes or bootlegs.
For example, last year, his completion percentage dropped massively when he dropped back to throw versus when he used a play-action. This statistical drop reflects his abilities in play-action.
But successful play-action passes require establishing the running game as a threat so that defenders have a reason to bite on the play-action.
Therefore, when the Chiefs limited the Browns to 17 points in the most recent AFC Divisional Round, they were sure to stack the box.
They were not going to let Chubb and Hunt, the centerpieces of Cleveland's offense, beat them.
While stacking the box makes a defense vulnerable in the back, they knew that Mayfield was not going to beat them deep and that availableBrown receivers were not going to be too threatening against man coverage.
The Importance of Odell
I stress "available" Brown receivers because Odell Beckham Jr. was not available.
Now, one may cite the manifest lack of connection between Baker and Odell in the early part of the season.
But this lack of connection was not so much a product of a damaging lack of chemistry as of Mayfield's own struggles.
He had to learn yet another new offense. This learning curve kept him from playing good football until the latter portions of the season.
Odell, however, did not make it into November. Therefore, he did not get to benefit from Mayfield's improved play.
So, a big reason why I like Cleveland to score in droves on Sunday is that Odell will play with Baker Mayfield who is comfortable in year two of Kevin Stefanski football.
One reason why the three-time Pro-Bowler, Odell, is so famous is his abilities downfield. He poses the threat downfield that guys like Jarvis Landry could not pose in January.
With this downfield threat, the Chiefs truly become vulnerable in the back by stacking the box.
They have to account for Odell deep, which opens up the rest of the field for guys like Jarvis Landry, for Cleveland's multiple pass-catching tight ends, and, indeed, it opens up space for Chubb and Hunt.
More on Chubb and Hunt
Chubb and Hunt get to run behind what is arguably the best offensive line in the NFL, which the Browns payed mightily to obtain.
Last year, despite starters not getting to play much with each other due to a slew of injuries, the Brown o-line was graded by PFF as first in pass-blocking and second in run-blocking.
This group will flourish against a Chief front seven held back by some youth and positional discontinuity.
Its most prominent player is Chris Jones, who was a defensive tackle but moved to defensive end.
Jones is known, however, for his pass rush skills, for his ability to accrue pressures and sacks. His run defense has merited criticism.
Frank Clark is also a bigger name, but his production has dropped off since his days in Seattle and he is dealing with off-the-field issues.
With Chubb and Hunt thriving against what was last year a below-average Chief run defense statistically, Mayfield clicks all the more with his cast of wide receivers and tight ends.
Chief Offense Is Still Stacked
When you like the Brown offense in this game as much as I do, it's pretty easy to see where my reasoning is headed because it would be quite weird to suggest an "under" at this point.
It would be weird because the Chief offense is obviously stacked with probably the NFL's best quarterback-wide receiver combo.
I do like the Browns to cover the spread partly because of their new additions on defense.
But as plenty of teams have shown in recent years -- the Rams, for example, come to mind -- it is really hard for a team with multiple new players to immediately and completely gel together, as if this were a video game.
The new additions in the Brown secondary, then, will provide both a blessing and a curse as they try to contend with KC's loaded passing attack.
Best Bet: Over 54.5 at -108 with Heritage
Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, September 12, 2021 at 4:25 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
Cleveland's Offense: Striking A Balance
As everybody knows, the Brown offense is run-first.
This offense will often utilize heavy sets to help maximize the blocking for running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
Not that both players need a lot of blocking to help them. In particular, Chubb excels at maintaining balance and staying upright while defenders try to tackle him.
Over the past two seasons, no running back has a higher broken tackle rate than Chubb.
While Hunt does not boast quite this same level of success at breaking tackles, he has likewise cultivated a reputation for himself of being difficult to bring down.
Everything starts with these two running backs also because Baker Mayfield thrives when he is executing play-action passes or bootlegs.
For example, last year, his completion percentage dropped massively when he dropped back to throw versus when he used a play-action. This statistical drop reflects his abilities in play-action.
But successful play-action passes require establishing the running game as a threat so that defenders have a reason to bite on the play-action.
Therefore, when the Chiefs limited the Browns to 17 points in the most recent AFC Divisional Round, they were sure to stack the box.
They were not going to let Chubb and Hunt, the centerpieces of Cleveland's offense, beat them.
While stacking the box makes a defense vulnerable in the back, they knew that Mayfield was not going to beat them deep and that availableBrown receivers were not going to be too threatening against man coverage.
The Importance of Odell
I stress "available" Brown receivers because Odell Beckham Jr. was not available.
Now, one may cite the manifest lack of connection between Baker and Odell in the early part of the season.
But this lack of connection was not so much a product of a damaging lack of chemistry as of Mayfield's own struggles.
He had to learn yet another new offense. This learning curve kept him from playing good football until the latter portions of the season.
Odell, however, did not make it into November. Therefore, he did not get to benefit from Mayfield's improved play.
So, a big reason why I like Cleveland to score in droves on Sunday is that Odell will play with Baker Mayfield who is comfortable in year two of Kevin Stefanski football.
One reason why the three-time Pro-Bowler, Odell, is so famous is his abilities downfield. He poses the threat downfield that guys like Jarvis Landry could not pose in January.
With this downfield threat, the Chiefs truly become vulnerable in the back by stacking the box.
They have to account for Odell deep, which opens up the rest of the field for guys like Jarvis Landry, for Cleveland's multiple pass-catching tight ends, and, indeed, it opens up space for Chubb and Hunt.
More on Chubb and Hunt
Chubb and Hunt get to run behind what is arguably the best offensive line in the NFL, which the Browns payed mightily to obtain.
Last year, despite starters not getting to play much with each other due to a slew of injuries, the Brown o-line was graded by PFF as first in pass-blocking and second in run-blocking.
This group will flourish against a Chief front seven held back by some youth and positional discontinuity.
Its most prominent player is Chris Jones, who was a defensive tackle but moved to defensive end.
Jones is known, however, for his pass rush skills, for his ability to accrue pressures and sacks. His run defense has merited criticism.
Frank Clark is also a bigger name, but his production has dropped off since his days in Seattle and he is dealing with off-the-field issues.
With Chubb and Hunt thriving against what was last year a below-average Chief run defense statistically, Mayfield clicks all the more with his cast of wide receivers and tight ends.
Chief Offense Is Still Stacked
When you like the Brown offense in this game as much as I do, it's pretty easy to see where my reasoning is headed because it would be quite weird to suggest an "under" at this point.
It would be weird because the Chief offense is obviously stacked with probably the NFL's best quarterback-wide receiver combo.
I do like the Browns to cover the spread partly because of their new additions on defense.
But as plenty of teams have shown in recent years -- the Rams, for example, come to mind -- it is really hard for a team with multiple new players to immediately and completely gel together, as if this were a video game.
The new additions in the Brown secondary, then, will provide both a blessing and a curse as they try to contend with KC's loaded passing attack.
Best Bet: Over 54.5 at -108 with Heritage
