NFL Week 18 Parlay at (+271): Defense Rules in Seattle and Pittsburgh
Best Bet: Parlay Browns/Steelers under 40 at -108 & Rams/Seahawks under 41.5 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, January 8, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh
The Importance of TJ Watt
Steeler linebacker TJ Watt's ability to play has a tremendous influence on the outlook of his team's defense.
The former Defensive Player of the Year excels both at run-stopping and pass-rushing.
In nine games so far this season, he has accrued five sacks and six run stuffs.
His impact is measurable in terms of the points per game that Pittsburgh allows when he plays.
This season, the Steelers have allowed over 17 points in one game in which Watt played.
That game was the one against the offensively potent Bengals, whose elite quarterback Watt and his teammates could not stop despite sacking him twice and wracking up seven quarterback hits.
Given this tendency to allow 17 or fewer points, the total for Sunday's game does not seem high.
Cleveland's Rusty Quarterback
Cleveland's offense is obviously not close to being as strong as Cincinnati's.
With Deshaun Watson back at quarterback, the Browns regularly struggle to reach double digits.
After spending two years away from playing football games, Watson is far from being the star that he was at Houston.
He is barely completing over half his passes, and his 78.1 passer rating places him in the bottom tier of starting quarterbacks.
Steeler Run Defense
Cleveland will rely heavily on star running back Nick Chubb.
But the Steeler run defense is stout especially with Watt playing.
Overall, Pittsburgh's run defense ranks seventh, and the Steelers allow over 20 rushing yards fewer at home than they do on the road.
Checkdown Kenny
Yards and hence points do not come easy to the Steeler offense.
Rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett is still very much finding his footing in the professional game.
As such, he is characteristically tentative and conservative.
Instead of challenging defenses downfield, he likes to take the shorter option.
Hence, he ranks 26thin deep ball attempts and 25thin air yards per attempt.
These stats mean that the Steelers, led by Pickett, grind out drives, which means a ticking clock.
Najee Harris' Outlook
One might expect this to be a game in which, like the Ravens when they played Cleveland, Pittsburgh scores three points while amassing superb rushing numbers.
Steeler running back Najee Harris and Steeler run-blockers did look excellent last week, but this excellence was anomalous.
Pittsburgh still has a below-average rush attack.
Meanwhile, the Brown defense has been consistent as it rounds into form and stymies opposing rush attacks.
Most recently, Cleveland held Saint running back Alvin Kamara to 3.8 YPC on 20 carries and Commander running back Brian Robinson to 3.6 YPC on 24 carries.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, January 8, 2023 at 4:25 p.m. ET at Lumen Field in Seattle
Seattle's Rush Defense
Seattle's run defense has developed a reputation for being terribly porous, but is this reputation fair?
The Seahawks just held the Jets to six points. In this most recent game, the Jets mustered 75 rushing yards.
Now, Ram backers will want to emphasize the injury to Seattle's starting inside linebacker, Jordyn Brooks.
But Brooks left in the second quarter of last week's game, so we got to see how the Jet rush attack would fare for an entire half without his absence.
In the second half, the Jet rush attack did absolutely nothing, even though Seattle was expecting the Jets to focus on passing the ball since they were losing.
One might try to say: well, the Jet rush attack is rather weak. Succeeding against the Jet rush attack is not a big deal.
But I am not arguing that the Seahawk rush defense is good. But what is the Rams' rush attack? The Jets rank 25thin rushing yards per game and the Rams' ranks 29th.
Baker Mayfield
Determined skeptics might point to the Jets' weak quarterback play.
But does the Ram pass attack led by backup wide receivers and quarterback Baker Mayfield pose a threat?
Mayfield's passing stats are inflated by his performance against an abnormally bad Bronco defense whose performance in that one game sent Denver's incompetent head coach packing.
Otherwise as a Ram starter, Mayfield earned a 91.4 passer rating against Las Vegas, a 67.8 passer rating in Green Bay, and a 79.3 passer rating at the Chargers.
Mayfield is who he is: a very conservative passer who struggles to be accurate even with a clean pocket -- he ranks 31stin air yards per attempt and 29thin clean pocket accuracy rating.
Except against Denver, the Mayfield-led Rams have failed to exceed 17 points.
Meanwhile, highlighted by its effort against the Chiefs, in which it limited big plays, kept Patrick Mahomes in check, and stymied all Chief pass-catchers except their star tight end, Seattle's pass defense is rounding into strong form as the regular season ends.
Geno Smith's Outlook
The revitalization of Seahawk quarterback Geno Smith is looking less and less like a thing as his stats decline in response to defenses adjusting to him over time.
Injuries to starting running back Rashaad Penny, who is on Injured Reserve, and to key wide receiver Tyler Lockett, who has yet to practice this week, limit Smith's prospects of success.
While Seahawk running back Kenny Walker is capable of having a big game, the Ram run defense ranks 10th.
L.A. boasts one of the top cornerbacks in Jalen Ramsey and elite run-stopper Bobby Wagner at linebacker.
With these key pieces healthy, the Ram defense is reliable against an average-ranked offense like Seattle's.
Best Bet: Parlay Browns/Steelers under 40 at -108 & Rams/Seahawks under 41.5 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, January 8, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh
The Importance of TJ Watt
Steeler linebacker TJ Watt's ability to play has a tremendous influence on the outlook of his team's defense.
The former Defensive Player of the Year excels both at run-stopping and pass-rushing.
In nine games so far this season, he has accrued five sacks and six run stuffs.
His impact is measurable in terms of the points per game that Pittsburgh allows when he plays.
This season, the Steelers have allowed over 17 points in one game in which Watt played.
That game was the one against the offensively potent Bengals, whose elite quarterback Watt and his teammates could not stop despite sacking him twice and wracking up seven quarterback hits.
Given this tendency to allow 17 or fewer points, the total for Sunday's game does not seem high.
Cleveland's Rusty Quarterback
Cleveland's offense is obviously not close to being as strong as Cincinnati's.
With Deshaun Watson back at quarterback, the Browns regularly struggle to reach double digits.
After spending two years away from playing football games, Watson is far from being the star that he was at Houston.
He is barely completing over half his passes, and his 78.1 passer rating places him in the bottom tier of starting quarterbacks.
Steeler Run Defense
Cleveland will rely heavily on star running back Nick Chubb.
But the Steeler run defense is stout especially with Watt playing.
Overall, Pittsburgh's run defense ranks seventh, and the Steelers allow over 20 rushing yards fewer at home than they do on the road.
Checkdown Kenny
Yards and hence points do not come easy to the Steeler offense.
Rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett is still very much finding his footing in the professional game.
As such, he is characteristically tentative and conservative.
Instead of challenging defenses downfield, he likes to take the shorter option.
Hence, he ranks 26thin deep ball attempts and 25thin air yards per attempt.
These stats mean that the Steelers, led by Pickett, grind out drives, which means a ticking clock.
Najee Harris' Outlook
One might expect this to be a game in which, like the Ravens when they played Cleveland, Pittsburgh scores three points while amassing superb rushing numbers.
Steeler running back Najee Harris and Steeler run-blockers did look excellent last week, but this excellence was anomalous.
Pittsburgh still has a below-average rush attack.
Meanwhile, the Brown defense has been consistent as it rounds into form and stymies opposing rush attacks.
Most recently, Cleveland held Saint running back Alvin Kamara to 3.8 YPC on 20 carries and Commander running back Brian Robinson to 3.6 YPC on 24 carries.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, January 8, 2023 at 4:25 p.m. ET at Lumen Field in Seattle
Seattle's Rush Defense
Seattle's run defense has developed a reputation for being terribly porous, but is this reputation fair?
The Seahawks just held the Jets to six points. In this most recent game, the Jets mustered 75 rushing yards.
Now, Ram backers will want to emphasize the injury to Seattle's starting inside linebacker, Jordyn Brooks.
But Brooks left in the second quarter of last week's game, so we got to see how the Jet rush attack would fare for an entire half without his absence.
In the second half, the Jet rush attack did absolutely nothing, even though Seattle was expecting the Jets to focus on passing the ball since they were losing.
One might try to say: well, the Jet rush attack is rather weak. Succeeding against the Jet rush attack is not a big deal.
But I am not arguing that the Seahawk rush defense is good. But what is the Rams' rush attack? The Jets rank 25thin rushing yards per game and the Rams' ranks 29th.
Baker Mayfield
Determined skeptics might point to the Jets' weak quarterback play.
But does the Ram pass attack led by backup wide receivers and quarterback Baker Mayfield pose a threat?
Mayfield's passing stats are inflated by his performance against an abnormally bad Bronco defense whose performance in that one game sent Denver's incompetent head coach packing.
Otherwise as a Ram starter, Mayfield earned a 91.4 passer rating against Las Vegas, a 67.8 passer rating in Green Bay, and a 79.3 passer rating at the Chargers.
Mayfield is who he is: a very conservative passer who struggles to be accurate even with a clean pocket -- he ranks 31stin air yards per attempt and 29thin clean pocket accuracy rating.
Except against Denver, the Mayfield-led Rams have failed to exceed 17 points.
Meanwhile, highlighted by its effort against the Chiefs, in which it limited big plays, kept Patrick Mahomes in check, and stymied all Chief pass-catchers except their star tight end, Seattle's pass defense is rounding into strong form as the regular season ends.
Geno Smith's Outlook
The revitalization of Seahawk quarterback Geno Smith is looking less and less like a thing as his stats decline in response to defenses adjusting to him over time.
Injuries to starting running back Rashaad Penny, who is on Injured Reserve, and to key wide receiver Tyler Lockett, who has yet to practice this week, limit Smith's prospects of success.
While Seahawk running back Kenny Walker is capable of having a big game, the Ram run defense ranks 10th.
L.A. boasts one of the top cornerbacks in Jalen Ramsey and elite run-stopper Bobby Wagner at linebacker.
With these key pieces healthy, the Ram defense is reliable against an average-ranked offense like Seattle's.
