Sunday's Best Bets: Add This NFL Week 1 Parlay
Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, September 12, 2021 at 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS) at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City
Great Spot For Cleveland
This game presents a great betting spot for the Browns for two reason.
First, the Chiefs lost the last Super Bowl. Since 2000, the Super Bowl loser is 4-17 ATS in the first game of the regular season following its Super Bowl defeat.
Second, the Browns lost to these Chiefs in last year's playoffs. So, there is a revenge angle in play.
This is a particular revenge angle that recent history has seen play itself out on several occasions with one example being the Jaguars stomping New England in the regular season after losing a heartbreaker in the previous year's AFC Championship game.
Patrick Who?
I'm afraid that Kansas City will always be a popular bet because of the star-power of its quarterback.
But during the offseason, Cleveland loaded its secondary by adding key players from the Rams while developing its own budding youth.
Regarding the latter, the Browns have annually invested in the cornerback position in the early rounds of the NFL draft.
This investment has graced them with speedster Denzel Ward, Greedy Williams, and most recently Greg Newsome.
As for the former Ram players, one notable addition is Troy Hill, who was one of the NFL's top slot corners last year as he contributed to the Rams' top-level pass defense ranking per DVOA and collected a career-high three interceptions.
Cleveland also bolstered its pass rush by adding star Jadeveon Clowney to complement Myles Garrett. Both defensive ends have a combined total of five Pro Bowl appearances.
This pass rushing talent will win the trenches against a Chief offensive line that struggled in the Super Bowl yet could hardly call itself improved outside of the left guard position.
Browns Run Offense
Behind Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, Cleveland is a run-first team.
Running is crucial for Cleveland also because it sets up Baker Mayfield, who thrives when he doesn't have to drop back to pass as often because he would rather execute a play-action or a bootleg.
Mayfield and the entire offense will already benefit from having gained more experience now in Year 2 under Kevin Stefanski and Alex Van Pelt.
The match-up looks good against a Chief defensive line that is thin after Chris Jones especially since Frank Clark regressed in quality after his time in Seattle, as evident in his poor PFF grades.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, September 12, 2021 at 1 p.m. ET (FOX) at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati
Dalvin Cook
Minnesota's offense revolves around its superstar running back, Dalvin Cook.
One should always expect greatness from the two-time Pro-Bowler, but especially in the beginning of the season because he is a high-volume running back who is more liable to wear down as the season progresses.
Now, obviously, he couldn't be fresher.
Most importantly, he has an easy task ahead of himself in a Bengal run defense that does not look ready to improve upon its ranking of 29th last year in opposing rush yards per game.
One significant problem with the Bengal run defense is the lack of attention it paid during the offseason to its linebacking group.
ESPN's Mike Clay rated this group as one of the NFL's worst.
Long-term, the Bengal defensive line looks promising in the sense that it can hardly be worse than what it was last year.
But right now, there are all sorts of changes in terms of position, personnel, and scheme that are causing Bengal defensive linemen to make all sorts of adjustments.
Concerns Over Joe Burrow
I might be preaching to the choir up to this point because, if you were inclined to bet on the Bengals, you probably were not so inclined because of their defense.
The main reason to bet on this Bengal team is always going to be its offense.
Last year, Joe Burrow was a very exciting player before his injury.
But the concerns surrounding Burrow after his surgery have been consistent.
Reportedly, he has lacked the same comfort and poise in the pocket. He lacks the same confidence and feel for the game.
These aren't just sensationalistic reports. Burrow himself has asked for help in regaining his old mentality.
Without a comfortable Burrow, Cincinnati doesn't have a chance.
The Verdict
Cleveland enjoys a strong betting spot plus a salivating match-up opportunity for its ground game and a profoundly competitive pass rush and secondary.
Cincinnati needs to find the old Burrow, but will anyhow fail to limit the centerpiece of Minnesota's offense.
For the above reasons, parlay the Browns ATS with the Vikings ATS.
Best Bet: Parlay Browns +6.5 at -115 & Vikings -3 at -115 at +250 odds with BetOnline
Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, September 12, 2021 at 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS) at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City
Great Spot For Cleveland
This game presents a great betting spot for the Browns for two reason.
First, the Chiefs lost the last Super Bowl. Since 2000, the Super Bowl loser is 4-17 ATS in the first game of the regular season following its Super Bowl defeat.
Second, the Browns lost to these Chiefs in last year's playoffs. So, there is a revenge angle in play.
This is a particular revenge angle that recent history has seen play itself out on several occasions with one example being the Jaguars stomping New England in the regular season after losing a heartbreaker in the previous year's AFC Championship game.
Patrick Who?
I'm afraid that Kansas City will always be a popular bet because of the star-power of its quarterback.
But during the offseason, Cleveland loaded its secondary by adding key players from the Rams while developing its own budding youth.
Regarding the latter, the Browns have annually invested in the cornerback position in the early rounds of the NFL draft.
This investment has graced them with speedster Denzel Ward, Greedy Williams, and most recently Greg Newsome.
As for the former Ram players, one notable addition is Troy Hill, who was one of the NFL's top slot corners last year as he contributed to the Rams' top-level pass defense ranking per DVOA and collected a career-high three interceptions.
Cleveland also bolstered its pass rush by adding star Jadeveon Clowney to complement Myles Garrett. Both defensive ends have a combined total of five Pro Bowl appearances.
This pass rushing talent will win the trenches against a Chief offensive line that struggled in the Super Bowl yet could hardly call itself improved outside of the left guard position.
Browns Run Offense
Behind Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, Cleveland is a run-first team.
Running is crucial for Cleveland also because it sets up Baker Mayfield, who thrives when he doesn't have to drop back to pass as often because he would rather execute a play-action or a bootleg.
Mayfield and the entire offense will already benefit from having gained more experience now in Year 2 under Kevin Stefanski and Alex Van Pelt.
The match-up looks good against a Chief defensive line that is thin after Chris Jones especially since Frank Clark regressed in quality after his time in Seattle, as evident in his poor PFF grades.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, September 12, 2021 at 1 p.m. ET (FOX) at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati
Dalvin Cook
Minnesota's offense revolves around its superstar running back, Dalvin Cook.
One should always expect greatness from the two-time Pro-Bowler, but especially in the beginning of the season because he is a high-volume running back who is more liable to wear down as the season progresses.
Now, obviously, he couldn't be fresher.
Most importantly, he has an easy task ahead of himself in a Bengal run defense that does not look ready to improve upon its ranking of 29th last year in opposing rush yards per game.
One significant problem with the Bengal run defense is the lack of attention it paid during the offseason to its linebacking group.
ESPN's Mike Clay rated this group as one of the NFL's worst.
Long-term, the Bengal defensive line looks promising in the sense that it can hardly be worse than what it was last year.
But right now, there are all sorts of changes in terms of position, personnel, and scheme that are causing Bengal defensive linemen to make all sorts of adjustments.
Concerns Over Joe Burrow
I might be preaching to the choir up to this point because, if you were inclined to bet on the Bengals, you probably were not so inclined because of their defense.
The main reason to bet on this Bengal team is always going to be its offense.
Last year, Joe Burrow was a very exciting player before his injury.
But the concerns surrounding Burrow after his surgery have been consistent.
Reportedly, he has lacked the same comfort and poise in the pocket. He lacks the same confidence and feel for the game.
These aren't just sensationalistic reports. Burrow himself has asked for help in regaining his old mentality.
Without a comfortable Burrow, Cincinnati doesn't have a chance.
The Verdict
Cleveland enjoys a strong betting spot plus a salivating match-up opportunity for its ground game and a profoundly competitive pass rush and secondary.
Cincinnati needs to find the old Burrow, but will anyhow fail to limit the centerpiece of Minnesota's offense.
For the above reasons, parlay the Browns ATS with the Vikings ATS.
Best Bet: Parlay Browns +6.5 at -115 & Vikings -3 at -115 at +250 odds with BetOnline
