Nets vs. Hornets NBA Picks for March 8
Brooklyn Nets vs. Charlotte Hornets
Tuesday, March 8, 2022 at 7 p.m. ET at Spectrum Center in Charlotte
Brooklyn's Struggles
Brooklyn's struggles extend beyond their current four-game SU losing streak.
The Nets were once 29-16. Since then, they've suffered a 3-17 SU losing run that has dropped them one game below .500.
NBA Oddsmakers continue to overrate them as the market is slow to make adjustments.
While they're favored tonight, they haven't won a game straight-up as the favorite since they beat the lowly Pelicans on January 15. That is almost two months ago.
Given the Nets' current form and longer-term struggles, one has to look really hard into the matchup details in order to find a solid justification for betting on them to cover the spread.
As I will argue, I am not finding this justification.
Awful Defense
Part of Brooklyn's struggles derives from its poor defense.
The Nets rank 23rd in defensive rating.
Their struggles are partly a product of their personnel, but may be more accurately explained by scheme.
They've tried alternating their ball-screen coverage tactics. Last year, they liked to switch one-through-five.
Earlier this year, they reduced this emphasis on switching. Now they are back to doing a lot of switching.
One problem with the Nets switching one-through-five is that Nic Claxton is their best rim protector with his height and wingspan.
His reputation is substantiated by statistics like defensive field goal percentage that he's earned.
But by switching, Claxton remains distant from the basket where he is defensively most effective.
Claxton's distance from the basket is only one piece of the puzzle, though.
Net defenders are often glued to the opposing shooter behind the arc.
Generally, they show issues with communication and they lack awareness.
Given these things, they often leave the backside wide open. They struggle dealing with cuts through the middle and with plays like pick-and-roll where an opposing player (namely the roller) cuts to the basket.
Their impotence in the back has allowed offensively untalented teams like Indiana the chance to manufacture viable layup lines.
Hornets Attack the Basket
Fittingly for the Hornets tonight, they love attacking the basket. They attempt the second-most field goal attempts per game within five feet of the basket.
Led by point guard LaMelo Ball, Hornet players will run a lot of actions designed to create no-win situations for the help defense.
In order to create this effect, they'll be tricky with their ball-screen plays. They'll spread out the defense. Players will make delayed runs to the basket. Off-ball players will also create favorable space for ball-handlers.
Threes and Transition Baskets
The Hornets like to run. They rely on transition baskets almost more than any other team.
Fortunately for them, they face a Net defense tonight that allows the fifth-most points in transition per game.
Moreover, the Hornets love to shoot threes almost as much as any other team.
Ball, Terry Rozier, and Kelly Oubre Jr. are three of Charlotte's high-volume three-point shooters.
While Oubre Jr.'s numbers from deep aren't very hot, his conversion rate from deep has exceed 37 percent in four of his last five games.
These three Hornet shooters and their teammates will thrive against a Net defense that, as measured by the frequency with which it allows open and wide-open three-point attempts, is poor at defending the perimeter.
Brooklyn Can't Keep Pace
Nobody scores more points per game than Charlotte.
So Brooklyn's offense, given the potency of the Hornet offense plus the ineptitude of its own defense, will need a special performance.
The Hornet offense is simply too hot despite facing highly ranked defenses like Cleveland's.
Whereas Charlotte has scored 119 or more points in four of its last five games, Brooklyn has done so twice in the same span with a dud against Toronto mixed in there.
While this might seem like nitpicking, the Nets' inferior show of firepower points to a larger issue: lineup inconsistency.
It is hard to develop the same comfort running effective actions -- like Charlotte does -- when so much transpires in and out of the lineup.
Maybe this lineup inconsistency links Brooklyn's insufficient offense with its issues on defense.
With that being said, expect the Hornets to be better than Brooklyn tonight on offense and defense.
Best Bet: Hornets +3 at -105 with BetOnline
Brooklyn Nets vs. Charlotte Hornets
Tuesday, March 8, 2022 at 7 p.m. ET at Spectrum Center in Charlotte
Brooklyn's Struggles
Brooklyn's struggles extend beyond their current four-game SU losing streak.
The Nets were once 29-16. Since then, they've suffered a 3-17 SU losing run that has dropped them one game below .500.
NBA Oddsmakers continue to overrate them as the market is slow to make adjustments.
While they're favored tonight, they haven't won a game straight-up as the favorite since they beat the lowly Pelicans on January 15. That is almost two months ago.
Given the Nets' current form and longer-term struggles, one has to look really hard into the matchup details in order to find a solid justification for betting on them to cover the spread.
As I will argue, I am not finding this justification.
Awful Defense
Part of Brooklyn's struggles derives from its poor defense.
The Nets rank 23rd in defensive rating.
Their struggles are partly a product of their personnel, but may be more accurately explained by scheme.
They've tried alternating their ball-screen coverage tactics. Last year, they liked to switch one-through-five.
Earlier this year, they reduced this emphasis on switching. Now they are back to doing a lot of switching.
One problem with the Nets switching one-through-five is that Nic Claxton is their best rim protector with his height and wingspan.
His reputation is substantiated by statistics like defensive field goal percentage that he's earned.
But by switching, Claxton remains distant from the basket where he is defensively most effective.
Claxton's distance from the basket is only one piece of the puzzle, though.
Net defenders are often glued to the opposing shooter behind the arc.
Generally, they show issues with communication and they lack awareness.
Given these things, they often leave the backside wide open. They struggle dealing with cuts through the middle and with plays like pick-and-roll where an opposing player (namely the roller) cuts to the basket.
Their impotence in the back has allowed offensively untalented teams like Indiana the chance to manufacture viable layup lines.
Hornets Attack the Basket
Fittingly for the Hornets tonight, they love attacking the basket. They attempt the second-most field goal attempts per game within five feet of the basket.
Led by point guard LaMelo Ball, Hornet players will run a lot of actions designed to create no-win situations for the help defense.
In order to create this effect, they'll be tricky with their ball-screen plays. They'll spread out the defense. Players will make delayed runs to the basket. Off-ball players will also create favorable space for ball-handlers.
Threes and Transition Baskets
The Hornets like to run. They rely on transition baskets almost more than any other team.
Fortunately for them, they face a Net defense tonight that allows the fifth-most points in transition per game.
Moreover, the Hornets love to shoot threes almost as much as any other team.
Ball, Terry Rozier, and Kelly Oubre Jr. are three of Charlotte's high-volume three-point shooters.
While Oubre Jr.'s numbers from deep aren't very hot, his conversion rate from deep has exceed 37 percent in four of his last five games.
These three Hornet shooters and their teammates will thrive against a Net defense that, as measured by the frequency with which it allows open and wide-open three-point attempts, is poor at defending the perimeter.
Brooklyn Can't Keep Pace
Nobody scores more points per game than Charlotte.
So Brooklyn's offense, given the potency of the Hornet offense plus the ineptitude of its own defense, will need a special performance.
The Hornet offense is simply too hot despite facing highly ranked defenses like Cleveland's.
Whereas Charlotte has scored 119 or more points in four of its last five games, Brooklyn has done so twice in the same span with a dud against Toronto mixed in there.
While this might seem like nitpicking, the Nets' inferior show of firepower points to a larger issue: lineup inconsistency.
It is hard to develop the same comfort running effective actions -- like Charlotte does -- when so much transpires in and out of the lineup.
Maybe this lineup inconsistency links Brooklyn's insufficient offense with its issues on defense.
With that being said, expect the Hornets to be better than Brooklyn tonight on offense and defense.
Best Bet: Hornets +3 at -105 with BetOnline
