Top NBA Playoffs Parlay Picks for April 20
Brooklyn Nets vs. Boston Celtics
Wednesday, April 20, 2022 at 7 p.m. ET at TD Garden in Boston
Oddities
Boston won Game 1 by the slimmest of margins.
The Celtics were hampered by unusual circumstances in that game, though, which won't repeat themselves tonight.
For starters, the Celtics played rusty and tight.
Regarding their form, they were disadvantaged by the longer layoff. They had not played since April 10.
Conversely, the Nets got to play on April 12 since they participated in the play-in tournament.
Boston's longer layoff produced a number of misses on easy looks in Game 1.
These missed looks hurt the offense, of course, but they also hurt the defense because they often led to five-on-four situations for Brooklyn's offense.
When people hear about rust, they think of missed shots, but defenses can also be rusty.
An unusual number of instances of miscommunication plagued the defense.
For example, Jayson Tatum neglected to move onto Kyrie Irving when Marcus Smart went to double Kevin Durant.
This neglect allowed Kyrie to knock down an easy three while he was red hot -- while Durant was off, Kyrie was unusually hot in Game 1.
These errors -- on defense and on offense -- energized Brooklyn and helped keep it in the game.
One can go as far as to say that Game 1 is the game that the Nets really should have won.
But the Celtics played as poorly as they did on both halves of the court and were only three points away from winning by a margin that would have covered the spread today.
Three-Pointers
One specific thing that will favor Boston today is three-pointers.
The Nets had the edge in Game 1 -- although they still lost -- because they were unusually efficient. They converted nearly half of their three-point opportunities.
Boston, though, will take advantage of the frequency with which Net defenders find themselves out of position.
In transition, Net defenders will often fail to account for potential shooters behind the arc.
In the half-court, it is easy to compel Net defenders to collapse inside, which allows the Celtic player inside the arc to kick the ball back out to a teammate behind the arc.
Overall, the Celtics love to shoot threes -- they attempt the ninth-most per game.
They will thrive against a Net defense that, in the regular season, allowed open threes with the 10th-highest frequency and wide-open threes with the 11th-highest frequency.
There are so many Net defenders for Boston players to exploit. While guys like Bruce Brown and Steph Curry have deservedly poor defensive ratings, the Celtics allow the fewest points per game.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Toronto Raptors
Wednesday, April 20, 2022 at 8 p.m. ET at Scotiabank in Toronto
Huge Advantages: Embiid
One tremendous advantage that Philadelphia's offense boasts is superstar center Joel Embiid.
Embiid is, physically speaking, a monster at 7-0, 280 pounds.
He towers over and outweighs Toronto's undersized, vastly less physical, and weaker interior defense.
Center Pascal Siakam, for example, is merely 6-8, 230 pounds.
Philadelphia is getting Embiid in deep position near the basket where his size and strength present too much for the Raptor defense to overcome.
The 76ers did a better job in Game 2 of getting Embiid in good position, which is why he scored 31 points after producing 19 in Game 1.
Three-Pointers
Through two games, the 76ers have made 30 three-pointers while shooting them with superb efficiency.
While the Raptors struggle to account for Embiid inside, 76er shooters are consistently getting open behind the arc.
Of course, the playmaking of superstar assist-master James Harden also helps.
What also helps Philadelphia is Toronto's impoverished perimeter defense.
During the regular season, the Raptors allowed wide open three-point attempts with the third-highest frequency.
Philadelphia's success from behind the arc must, therefore, come as no surprise and one should expect it to continue in this series.
Shot Attempts
I also like the "over" because I expect a faster tempo from Toronto.
Increasing tempo is a classic move for an undersized team to pull.
A smaller team's shots will not be contested at the basket if it beats the other team's defenders down the court.
Likewise, a smaller team can run more to wear down the opposing team's biggest players.
In Game 2, Toronto attempted 89 shots while the 76ers only managed 69.
So, the Raptors evidently want to play faster. A faster tempo means more shot attempts, which means more scoring opportunities and a higher likelihood that more points get scored.
Plus, Philadelphia had, statistically speaking, one of the most vulnerable transition defenses in the regular season. Its vulnerability will help reward Toronto's fast-playing efforts.
In terms of specific players, don't expect Fred VanVleet to miss 11 threes again.
The Verdict
Expect a stronger Celtic showing to produce a stronger Boston win while Raptor running, Embiid, and 76er threes lead to a high-scoring game in Toronto.
Best Bet: Parlay Celtics -3.5 at -105 & 76ers/Raptors Over 216 at -110 at +273 odds with BetOnline
Brooklyn Nets vs. Boston Celtics
Wednesday, April 20, 2022 at 7 p.m. ET at TD Garden in Boston
Oddities
Boston won Game 1 by the slimmest of margins.
The Celtics were hampered by unusual circumstances in that game, though, which won't repeat themselves tonight.
For starters, the Celtics played rusty and tight.
Regarding their form, they were disadvantaged by the longer layoff. They had not played since April 10.
Conversely, the Nets got to play on April 12 since they participated in the play-in tournament.
Boston's longer layoff produced a number of misses on easy looks in Game 1.
These missed looks hurt the offense, of course, but they also hurt the defense because they often led to five-on-four situations for Brooklyn's offense.
When people hear about rust, they think of missed shots, but defenses can also be rusty.
An unusual number of instances of miscommunication plagued the defense.
For example, Jayson Tatum neglected to move onto Kyrie Irving when Marcus Smart went to double Kevin Durant.
This neglect allowed Kyrie to knock down an easy three while he was red hot -- while Durant was off, Kyrie was unusually hot in Game 1.
These errors -- on defense and on offense -- energized Brooklyn and helped keep it in the game.
One can go as far as to say that Game 1 is the game that the Nets really should have won.
But the Celtics played as poorly as they did on both halves of the court and were only three points away from winning by a margin that would have covered the spread today.
Three-Pointers
One specific thing that will favor Boston today is three-pointers.
The Nets had the edge in Game 1 -- although they still lost -- because they were unusually efficient. They converted nearly half of their three-point opportunities.
Boston, though, will take advantage of the frequency with which Net defenders find themselves out of position.
In transition, Net defenders will often fail to account for potential shooters behind the arc.
In the half-court, it is easy to compel Net defenders to collapse inside, which allows the Celtic player inside the arc to kick the ball back out to a teammate behind the arc.
Overall, the Celtics love to shoot threes -- they attempt the ninth-most per game.
They will thrive against a Net defense that, in the regular season, allowed open threes with the 10th-highest frequency and wide-open threes with the 11th-highest frequency.
There are so many Net defenders for Boston players to exploit. While guys like Bruce Brown and Steph Curry have deservedly poor defensive ratings, the Celtics allow the fewest points per game.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Toronto Raptors
Wednesday, April 20, 2022 at 8 p.m. ET at Scotiabank in Toronto
Huge Advantages: Embiid
One tremendous advantage that Philadelphia's offense boasts is superstar center Joel Embiid.
Embiid is, physically speaking, a monster at 7-0, 280 pounds.
He towers over and outweighs Toronto's undersized, vastly less physical, and weaker interior defense.
Center Pascal Siakam, for example, is merely 6-8, 230 pounds.
Philadelphia is getting Embiid in deep position near the basket where his size and strength present too much for the Raptor defense to overcome.
The 76ers did a better job in Game 2 of getting Embiid in good position, which is why he scored 31 points after producing 19 in Game 1.
Three-Pointers
Through two games, the 76ers have made 30 three-pointers while shooting them with superb efficiency.
While the Raptors struggle to account for Embiid inside, 76er shooters are consistently getting open behind the arc.
Of course, the playmaking of superstar assist-master James Harden also helps.
What also helps Philadelphia is Toronto's impoverished perimeter defense.
During the regular season, the Raptors allowed wide open three-point attempts with the third-highest frequency.
Philadelphia's success from behind the arc must, therefore, come as no surprise and one should expect it to continue in this series.
Shot Attempts
I also like the "over" because I expect a faster tempo from Toronto.
Increasing tempo is a classic move for an undersized team to pull.
A smaller team's shots will not be contested at the basket if it beats the other team's defenders down the court.
Likewise, a smaller team can run more to wear down the opposing team's biggest players.
In Game 2, Toronto attempted 89 shots while the 76ers only managed 69.
So, the Raptors evidently want to play faster. A faster tempo means more shot attempts, which means more scoring opportunities and a higher likelihood that more points get scored.
Plus, Philadelphia had, statistically speaking, one of the most vulnerable transition defenses in the regular season. Its vulnerability will help reward Toronto's fast-playing efforts.
In terms of specific players, don't expect Fred VanVleet to miss 11 threes again.
The Verdict
Expect a stronger Celtic showing to produce a stronger Boston win while Raptor running, Embiid, and 76er threes lead to a high-scoring game in Toronto.
Best Bet: Parlay Celtics -3.5 at -105 & 76ers/Raptors Over 216 at -110 at +273 odds with BetOnline
