Broncos vs Patriots

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BIG DADDY KNOWLEDGE

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Why will Denver cover the +6.5?

Why will New England cover the -6.5?

Why Under 38.5?

Why Over 38.5?
 
N.E. -6.5

Now, I will ride the Patriots big in this game and here is why: They will light up this Denver defense. They did in last year's playoff game the entire way, outgaining the Broncos 440-278. It’s just too bad Tom Brady couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat that night and decided to throw to the wrong team a few times, especially Champ Bailey. The Patriots turned it over 5 times to only 1 for the Broncos. Brady was quoted in the offseason as saying, “I cost us 3 straight Super Bowl titles and a shot as being the greatest team ever!” I couldn’t agree with you more Tom, seeing as you buried me in that playoff game last year. Well, the Pats will get their revenge today and get it in a big way.

The Patriots have been waiting for this game. They struggled in week one against Buffalo, but I give the Bills more credit for that than I do the Pats playing bad. Last week, they were blowing out the Jets when Belchick called off the dogs. Well, there will be no calling off the dogs here. This is another Sunday night blowout, reminiscent of last Sunday night with the Cowboys crushing the Skins.

Right side to this game tonight is New England at home with Tom Brady and against Jake Plummer on the road. It will be Plummer who throws multiple picks and he will probably be benched by Shanahan in this game. Either way, New England is the play tonight.
 
NE Revenge Game Take NE -6.5

NE has been waiting for this game since last time these two met. Expect NE to get revenge tonight. I think Belichick, Brady and company will have a big at home tonight.

You heard it hear first....:moose:
 
Here is my arguement:

I know my first instinct was you have got to be kidding me that this line is 6.5 / 7. So basically I have been wondering since then is thi ssome sought of 'trap'...meaning I am missing something?

Denver has defeated them the past 2 seasons in Denver as 3 pt chalk. 3 pt chalk to me indicates teams of even strength seperated by home field advantage...neutral field would mean a PKem game.

Now while Denver has added Walker for Lelie and IMO upgraded from Anderson to Bell what has NE's offense done? Lost there 2 starting WR's and replaced them with castoffs and a talent but seemingly always injured Chad Jackson. Last meeting Branch was huge 8R 153 yds , Givens 5R 54 yds , even Andre Davis had 1R for 51 Yds...thats alot to replace. Obviously the TE comes into play more now but Denver has some good corners. They also lost all world PK Vinateri and replaced him with a talented , but unproven IMO Stephen Gostkowksi.

On defense to my recollection not my has changed on either side.

Now the questions surrounding Plummer are two fold here. Playing on national TV he can silence his critics or show his thin skin and fold.

Now while you have to give the Bills credit for the week 1 performance you also must remember they were a 4th down conversion away from winning that game IMO. Is Denver @ +7 seriously just 3 points better then Buffalo??

Think about that for a second...last year pats were catching 3 and lost now Denver is catching 7 ???

Buffalo was +10 in week 1 and lost by 2 now Denver roles in and they are +7........that makes no sense to me what so ever.

Also Denvers defense hasn allowed a TD yet and they GAVE STL many opps in teh 1st game but always held them. Now the tandem of Malroney and Dillion has been impresive. I was at the NYJ game. However outside of a few big runs the Broncos have stopped the run. You look at week 1 and see Stephen Jackson with 22 carries for 121 yds. Before the last possession where STL was trying to run the clock out he had 20 carries for 71 yards and that included a 20 yd run- clearly not impressive. On that clock eating drive to end it he picked up 13 and 37 carries- 2 rusn for 50 yds. Which IMO seriously blurs his run totals.

Larry had 27 carries for 126yds but had 2 big runs 23 and 24...so basically 25 carries for 79 yards.

What I am saying is Denver is tough to run against but they will give up the occassional big run.

I see two solid defenses and would rate them as equal. Obviously a nice edge wit brady over Plummer but some of that is negated with DEN's edge in WR's. I think NE has a slight edge in offense....remember Brady didnt look so hit vs Buffalo or NYJ. Elam's experience problem gives him an edge over Gostkowski.

Revenge or not......7 points IMO is way to high....should be -3.5 or -4 IMO. How has NE improved 3 points more then Denver since last season???

anyone-
 
The Fav is 18-1 SU & 16-3 ATS last 19 Sunday Nighters

As someone familiar with stats, from a purely statistical perspective I'd be wary of a Dog correction coming into play sooner rather than later (which pulls against NE here, obviously), but I'll personally be looking at live betting and my 1st scorer losing scenario.
GL all
 
BET- Your the stat king w/o evenchecking I know NE played Buffalo on a Sunday nite last year and didnt cover that game. Remember like it was yesterday. So that right there waters the trends strength down tome. I would also like to know more of the breakdown with spreads at -6 and higher.......
 
SportNut, I remember that game because I had the Under..3-0 at halftime, sweet, lol. But that was still only 1 of 3 Sun. Nite Dog covers last season.

4 primetime games for the Pats last year, Fav went 3-1 ATS, 4-0 SU

2 primetime games for DEN last year, Fav went 2-0 ATS/SU
 
Good call sportsnut that is what Im thinking I think New England wins they just cover maybe when by 1. Pulling plummer might not be a bad deal. Pats dont have any WR so Brady and the buys will run the shit out of it and so will the Broncos

How about Denver +6.5 and th Under in a parlay and a Tease with Denver +13.5 and the under 45?/

Anyone?
 
I am just saying what where the spreads in the Sunday nite games. When you are talking 6 points or less its rare the poinst come into play. So that trend on Sunday Nite doesntsuprise me seeing that they want good games on TV . You would think a good game has a generally low spread. I think you would agree....the general rule in the NFL is pick the SU winner

Do you see my point about the actual spreads being important to actually weigh the accuracy of the trend. So if yo have the spreads that would be helpful. NE could have covered whatver games but they dont fit this situation if they were 4 pt favs.
 
Also isnt anyone impressed by Denvers defense? The offense has been shitty and playing another solid defense so I dont see why there would be TD s scored tonite.
 
NEG 3-1 to Over primetime last season

DEN 2-0 to Over primetime last season

Last time these 2 teams met in primetime, 56 points were scored.
 
The Denver defense has been impressive stats wise BUT one thing that caught my eye was in Week One STL's offense was horrible, in fact this week was the first week that Bulger was able to pass the ball well to Holt and Bruce. In week two they face a VERY one dimensional offense IMO as KC really relied on Johnson to move the ball for them and allow Huard to stay in manageable distances.
 
In regards to New England, Buffalo was playing skyhigh on opening weekend and they do have a very good defense. Jauron is a very smart coach and doesn't let his teams get embarassed in big games like that, he had his boys prepared hence the tight battle. Week Two the Pats were destroying the jets but Bill called off the full attack, maybe to spare Mangini a bit.
 
I wouldnt say Bill called off the attack. Especially since I was in attendance. What happened was NE went up 24-0 fans started leaving thinking it was over. Next possesion was the Cotchery TD play we saw on ESPN 1000000 times and the Jets built off that momentum. They shut down the NE offense and Brady did nothing except fumble. I think the cause of the rally was simply the momentum that the Cotchery play created and it gave life to the Stadium and the team. NE was very laxed in its play I agree but I wouldnt use the Jets as much as of anything to compare with.

StL offense didnt play well but you still have talent there and tehy still had numerous possessions deep in Denevr territory where they couldnt do zip....I think maybe 3 possessions inside the 10 and only 6 points.

I think I agree with you but I would bet Denver is looking to stop the run ehere with good corner against suspect WR's. What has the NE offense really done to say it isnt struggling just as much as the Rams? They were given a few points in tha Jets game on some shaky officiating ...see he 3rd Q TD....3rd and like 20 and they get a defensive hold to keep the drive alive and it wasnt flag worthy. Against Buffalo they didnt do much till the stuff of MacGahee and feed off that momentum.

Jauron is a defensive guru clearly and receives no credit. So why would Shanahan LET his team get embarrassed here? Wouldnt they follow the same game plan? Solid defense and run the ball......hence my plays

I just havent heard justification for this line ......

I would have been suprised to see NE -4.5 let alone -6.5. There is no statisical trail for why this number is such IMO.....

Hopefully I am right......GL
 
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