Broncos vs. Chiefs NFL Week 17 Betting Preview: Chiefs to Prolong Denver's Misery
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City
Best Bet: Chiefs -13.5 at -107 with BetOnline
Russell Wilson
After investing over 200 million dollars in him, Denver is stuck with Russell Wilson at quarterback.
With him at quarterback, Denver's offensive ceiling is immensely low.
Wilson's passer rating this season is an awful 82.6.
He has thrown just 12 touchdown passes to nine interceptions, and he often fails to complete 55 percent of his passes in a given game.
Bronco wide receivers have been so frustrated with Wilson's play that they are unable to restrain themselves.
For example, one could see Courtland Sutton stomp on the sidelines after one of Wilson's gaffes.
I am sure that Bronco wide receivers are still expending some degree of effort, but I can't imagine that it is healthy for a quarterback's wide receivers to hate playing with him.
Wilson is, after all, primarily to blame for the fact that Denver ranks dead-last in scoring offense.
The Broncos average 15.5 points per game.
Their low scoring average means that it is relatively easy for their favored opponents to cover the spread, because they don't require as many points in order to cover.
Potential Concern
One might worry that Wilson will get benched.
But it is hard to bench somebody who is so expensive.
Last week, for example, Wilson should have doubtlessly been benched by halftime because of how poor he was playing -- he regularly failed to drive his team downfield.
Denver was not sniffing with the end zone while Wilson was making bad decisions, throwing inaccurately, and getting picked off.
Wilson did lead a touchdown drive but not until his team was down over 30 points late in the fourth quarter.
After that drive, Wilson was replaced by Brett Rypien.
Should we be concerned that Rypien will help Denver cover the spread?
Rypien might be even worse than Wilson. His passer rating is 63.8.
He is bad at avoiding interceptions, even though he tries to be so conservative as a passer.
The Importance of Denver's Rush Attack
Given Denver's problems at quarterback, it is crucial for the Broncos to be able to run the ball well.
In their last win, when they exceeded 20 points against Arizona, running back Latavius Murray ran for 130 yards.
But Murray has failed to reach 3.5 YPC in five of his 11 games and Arizona has one of the NFL's lowest-ranking run defenses.
Is the Chief run defense similarly vulnerable?
Kansas City's Run Defense
Run defense has been a problem for recent Chief squads.
But Kansas City has finally fixed this problem.
The Chief run defense ranks eighth in terms of limiting opposing rush yards.
The Chiefs hired Joe Cullen as their defensive line coach. His experience has proven fruitful.
In terms of personnel, linebacker Nick Bolton has improved massively.
He is instinctive and tackles ably in tight spaces and in the open field.
Kansas City is not Arizona. Murray and company will flounder against the Chief run defense.
Chiefs' Offensive Outlook
Kansas City's elite offensive attack -- the Chiefs average 29.2 points per game -- won't need to score much for the Chiefs to cover the spread.
They'll have to score a bit over half of the point total that Denver conceded last week to the reeling Rams' backup-laden offense.
With Bradley Chubb departed and Randy Gregory suspended, Denver no longer has the key pass rushing personnel on which it has so depended and without which its pass rush is anemic.
So, as great as top Bronco cornerback Pat Surtain is, he'll have to spend a lot of time covering his opposing wide receiver as Patrick Mahomes has all day to throw.
Mahomes is anyhow most reliant on tight end Travis Kelce, who is primed to thrive against a Bronco defense that is allowing the fourth-most yards to tight ends.
Powerful running back Isiah Pacheco also enjoys a positive outlook against Denver's middling run defense.
The Verdict
Expect a more than competent Chief offense to race past a Denver team that will struggle to score or to prevent Kansas City's two-dimensional attack from amassing points.
For the above reasons, invest in the Chiefs ATS.
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City
Best Bet: Chiefs -13.5 at -107 with BetOnline
Russell Wilson
After investing over 200 million dollars in him, Denver is stuck with Russell Wilson at quarterback.
With him at quarterback, Denver's offensive ceiling is immensely low.
Wilson's passer rating this season is an awful 82.6.
He has thrown just 12 touchdown passes to nine interceptions, and he often fails to complete 55 percent of his passes in a given game.
Bronco wide receivers have been so frustrated with Wilson's play that they are unable to restrain themselves.
For example, one could see Courtland Sutton stomp on the sidelines after one of Wilson's gaffes.
I am sure that Bronco wide receivers are still expending some degree of effort, but I can't imagine that it is healthy for a quarterback's wide receivers to hate playing with him.
Wilson is, after all, primarily to blame for the fact that Denver ranks dead-last in scoring offense.
The Broncos average 15.5 points per game.
Their low scoring average means that it is relatively easy for their favored opponents to cover the spread, because they don't require as many points in order to cover.
Potential Concern
One might worry that Wilson will get benched.
But it is hard to bench somebody who is so expensive.
Last week, for example, Wilson should have doubtlessly been benched by halftime because of how poor he was playing -- he regularly failed to drive his team downfield.
Denver was not sniffing with the end zone while Wilson was making bad decisions, throwing inaccurately, and getting picked off.
Wilson did lead a touchdown drive but not until his team was down over 30 points late in the fourth quarter.
After that drive, Wilson was replaced by Brett Rypien.
Should we be concerned that Rypien will help Denver cover the spread?
Rypien might be even worse than Wilson. His passer rating is 63.8.
He is bad at avoiding interceptions, even though he tries to be so conservative as a passer.
The Importance of Denver's Rush Attack
Given Denver's problems at quarterback, it is crucial for the Broncos to be able to run the ball well.
In their last win, when they exceeded 20 points against Arizona, running back Latavius Murray ran for 130 yards.
But Murray has failed to reach 3.5 YPC in five of his 11 games and Arizona has one of the NFL's lowest-ranking run defenses.
Is the Chief run defense similarly vulnerable?
Kansas City's Run Defense
Run defense has been a problem for recent Chief squads.
But Kansas City has finally fixed this problem.
The Chief run defense ranks eighth in terms of limiting opposing rush yards.
The Chiefs hired Joe Cullen as their defensive line coach. His experience has proven fruitful.
In terms of personnel, linebacker Nick Bolton has improved massively.
He is instinctive and tackles ably in tight spaces and in the open field.
Kansas City is not Arizona. Murray and company will flounder against the Chief run defense.
Chiefs' Offensive Outlook
Kansas City's elite offensive attack -- the Chiefs average 29.2 points per game -- won't need to score much for the Chiefs to cover the spread.
They'll have to score a bit over half of the point total that Denver conceded last week to the reeling Rams' backup-laden offense.
With Bradley Chubb departed and Randy Gregory suspended, Denver no longer has the key pass rushing personnel on which it has so depended and without which its pass rush is anemic.
So, as great as top Bronco cornerback Pat Surtain is, he'll have to spend a lot of time covering his opposing wide receiver as Patrick Mahomes has all day to throw.
Mahomes is anyhow most reliant on tight end Travis Kelce, who is primed to thrive against a Bronco defense that is allowing the fourth-most yards to tight ends.
Powerful running back Isiah Pacheco also enjoys a positive outlook against Denver's middling run defense.
The Verdict
Expect a more than competent Chief offense to race past a Denver team that will struggle to score or to prevent Kansas City's two-dimensional attack from amassing points.
For the above reasons, invest in the Chiefs ATS.
