Broncos vs. Chargers Thursday Night Football Picks: The Chargers Start Strong
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Thursday, December 19, 2024 at 8:15 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium
Should We Worry About The Chargers' Run Defense?
I like the Chargers in this matchup, but an obvious potential worry needs to be addressed: the Chargers gave up 40 points last week.
First of all, you can't succumb to recency bias, because things change from week to week. For example, the Rams gave up 42 points to Buffalo in Week 14 before holding San Francisco to six points four days later.
A prideful defense — and the Chargers certainly take pride in their defense, which has been one of the NFL's best this year — is going to invest extra focus and effort after suffering an embarrassing performance.
Of course, though, defenses don't simply perform well because they're prideful.
There is a real concern with the Chargers' defense that has to be addressed before we can be confident in this team: the Chargers have struggled against the run.
Last week, they allowed Tampa Bay's Bucky Irving to amass 117 rushing yards on 7.8 YPC.
When the Chargers performed much better against Kansas City's rush attack the week before, they held the Chiefs to 19 points.
There is the worry that a good running back will take advantage of the Chargers' defense and help his offense attain a high scoring output — although this worry would be mitigated by the return of linebacker Denzel Perryman, who practiced throughout last week and has been graded by PFF as a good run-stopper.
Denver's Running Back Room
Denver, though, lacks the personnel to take advantage of the Chargers' potential weakness.
The Broncos lack a running back who can hold on to the starting role. Hence, they have rotated between Javonte Williams, Audric Estime, And Jaleel McLaughlin.
All of those running backs have significant deficiencies: among other things, McLaughlin lacks the strength to break tackles; Estime and Williams are both sluggish, inexplosive, and stylistically bland.
Overall, the Broncos rank well in the bottom half in both rushing yards and YPC.
Mobile Quarterbacks vs. Chargers Defense
While the Broncos can't take advantage of the Chargers' biggest potential weakness, Broncos backers will say that they can take advantage of another impactful Chargers' defensive weakness.
The Chargers have struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks, although this struggle hasn't always led to a high scoring total.
When they played the Broncos, they led 23-0 in the first half and played soft zone in the second half, which allowed Denver to mount a comeback.
The Broncos came back not only because the Chargers' defense became passive with their great lead, but also because Los Angeles struggled to contain Denver's mobile quarterback Bo Nix.
Nix was Denver's leading rusher with 61 yards and helped his team score 16 points.
In the following week, Los Angeles gave up 17 points to Kyler Murray. In that game, Murray ran for 64 yards, including a 44-yard rushing touchdown.
These performances inspire optimism for Denver only when you realize that the Chargers were missing a key defender in both of those games: four-time Pro Bowler Joey Bosa was absent.
This linebacker, however, played when the Chargers were able to contain mobile quarterbacks.
When the Chargers faced the Steelers, quarterback Justin Fields mustered all of six rushing yards.
When they faced Baltimore, quarterback Lamar Jackson ran for 15 yards on 1.9 YPC.
Bosa is healthy, so the Chargers will contain Nix. When the Chargers aren't playing soft zone with a big second-half lead, then Nix will struggle because he is an inaccurate quarterback who relies on making quick and easy throws. His inaccuracy is evident in the low YAC for his pass-catchers, and his reliance on simple throws is evident in his low average per attempt.
Los Angeles has the ninth-ranked pass defense. Without having to worry about Nix's mobility, it gets to face a poor passer who lacks talent in his pass-catching group.
Denver's Cornerback Crisis
The Broncos gave up 32 points to Cleveland, with the latter team's quarterback Jameis Winston throwing for 497 yards, because they are struggling to find a competent second cornerback.
Riley Moss didn't practice at all last week and didn't play last Sunday. Yet the Broncos refused to play Levi Wallace after he looked so bad against Cleveland.
Denver has been working out veteran cornerbacks. It is desperate for help. Yet the team's only good cornerback, Patrick Surtain, left his team's game after sustaining an ankle injury. His absence would be critical, but the Broncos are even in rough shape if he plays, as he played against Cleveland but could only do so much by himself.
While they looked better against Indianapolis' Anthony Richardson, Richardson is a uniquely inaccurate passer who is completing an absurdly bad 47 percent of his passes on the season.
Los Angeles will confront Denver with a quarterback in Justin Herbert who is better than Winston.
Herbert, who has thrown 16 touchdowns to two interceptions this season, has been more active since his team's bye week. He has great chemistry especially with developing rookie Ladd McConkey but remains inclined to spread the ball around.
Takeaway
In the first half last week against Tampa Bay, Herbert was 12-for-16 with 130 passing yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
The Chargers then did nothing in the second half.
This is very typical for the Chargers: on the season, they rank eleventh in first-half scoring but 29th in second-half scoring.
They have the firepower to secure a solid lead over the Broncos, but you can only count on their offense to have effective play-calling in the first half.
With the excellent outlook for their defense, my favorite bet for this game is the Chargers first-half.
If you want a full-game play, Los Angeles' defense and second-half scoring struggles make the full-game "under" a reasonable investment.
Best Bet: Chargers First-Half -2.5 at -110 with Bovada
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Thursday, December 19, 2024 at 8:15 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium
Should We Worry About The Chargers' Run Defense?
I like the Chargers in this matchup, but an obvious potential worry needs to be addressed: the Chargers gave up 40 points last week.
First of all, you can't succumb to recency bias, because things change from week to week. For example, the Rams gave up 42 points to Buffalo in Week 14 before holding San Francisco to six points four days later.
A prideful defense — and the Chargers certainly take pride in their defense, which has been one of the NFL's best this year — is going to invest extra focus and effort after suffering an embarrassing performance.
Of course, though, defenses don't simply perform well because they're prideful.
There is a real concern with the Chargers' defense that has to be addressed before we can be confident in this team: the Chargers have struggled against the run.
Last week, they allowed Tampa Bay's Bucky Irving to amass 117 rushing yards on 7.8 YPC.
When the Chargers performed much better against Kansas City's rush attack the week before, they held the Chiefs to 19 points.
There is the worry that a good running back will take advantage of the Chargers' defense and help his offense attain a high scoring output — although this worry would be mitigated by the return of linebacker Denzel Perryman, who practiced throughout last week and has been graded by PFF as a good run-stopper.
Denver's Running Back Room
Denver, though, lacks the personnel to take advantage of the Chargers' potential weakness.
The Broncos lack a running back who can hold on to the starting role. Hence, they have rotated between Javonte Williams, Audric Estime, And Jaleel McLaughlin.
All of those running backs have significant deficiencies: among other things, McLaughlin lacks the strength to break tackles; Estime and Williams are both sluggish, inexplosive, and stylistically bland.
Overall, the Broncos rank well in the bottom half in both rushing yards and YPC.
Mobile Quarterbacks vs. Chargers Defense
While the Broncos can't take advantage of the Chargers' biggest potential weakness, Broncos backers will say that they can take advantage of another impactful Chargers' defensive weakness.
The Chargers have struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks, although this struggle hasn't always led to a high scoring total.
When they played the Broncos, they led 23-0 in the first half and played soft zone in the second half, which allowed Denver to mount a comeback.
The Broncos came back not only because the Chargers' defense became passive with their great lead, but also because Los Angeles struggled to contain Denver's mobile quarterback Bo Nix.
Nix was Denver's leading rusher with 61 yards and helped his team score 16 points.
In the following week, Los Angeles gave up 17 points to Kyler Murray. In that game, Murray ran for 64 yards, including a 44-yard rushing touchdown.
These performances inspire optimism for Denver only when you realize that the Chargers were missing a key defender in both of those games: four-time Pro Bowler Joey Bosa was absent.
This linebacker, however, played when the Chargers were able to contain mobile quarterbacks.
When the Chargers faced the Steelers, quarterback Justin Fields mustered all of six rushing yards.
When they faced Baltimore, quarterback Lamar Jackson ran for 15 yards on 1.9 YPC.
Bosa is healthy, so the Chargers will contain Nix. When the Chargers aren't playing soft zone with a big second-half lead, then Nix will struggle because he is an inaccurate quarterback who relies on making quick and easy throws. His inaccuracy is evident in the low YAC for his pass-catchers, and his reliance on simple throws is evident in his low average per attempt.
Los Angeles has the ninth-ranked pass defense. Without having to worry about Nix's mobility, it gets to face a poor passer who lacks talent in his pass-catching group.
Denver's Cornerback Crisis
The Broncos gave up 32 points to Cleveland, with the latter team's quarterback Jameis Winston throwing for 497 yards, because they are struggling to find a competent second cornerback.
Riley Moss didn't practice at all last week and didn't play last Sunday. Yet the Broncos refused to play Levi Wallace after he looked so bad against Cleveland.
Denver has been working out veteran cornerbacks. It is desperate for help. Yet the team's only good cornerback, Patrick Surtain, left his team's game after sustaining an ankle injury. His absence would be critical, but the Broncos are even in rough shape if he plays, as he played against Cleveland but could only do so much by himself.
While they looked better against Indianapolis' Anthony Richardson, Richardson is a uniquely inaccurate passer who is completing an absurdly bad 47 percent of his passes on the season.
Los Angeles will confront Denver with a quarterback in Justin Herbert who is better than Winston.
Herbert, who has thrown 16 touchdowns to two interceptions this season, has been more active since his team's bye week. He has great chemistry especially with developing rookie Ladd McConkey but remains inclined to spread the ball around.
Takeaway
In the first half last week against Tampa Bay, Herbert was 12-for-16 with 130 passing yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
The Chargers then did nothing in the second half.
This is very typical for the Chargers: on the season, they rank eleventh in first-half scoring but 29th in second-half scoring.
They have the firepower to secure a solid lead over the Broncos, but you can only count on their offense to have effective play-calling in the first half.
With the excellent outlook for their defense, my favorite bet for this game is the Chargers first-half.
If you want a full-game play, Los Angeles' defense and second-half scoring struggles make the full-game "under" a reasonable investment.
Best Bet: Chargers First-Half -2.5 at -110 with Bovada
