Brewers vs Twins: MLB Best Bets
Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins
Thursday, August 20, 2020 at 7:10 p.m. ET on FS1 at Target Field in Minneapolis
Worried About Jose Berrios?
Despite what Jose Berrios' surface-level statistics say — he is 1-3 with a 5.92 ERA so far — he is performing well in some respects.
He is generating whiffs at nearly the highest rate in his career.
His improved whiff rate is surely a product of his improved pitch quality.
Berrios relies with relative balance on four different pitches — a fastball, sinker, change-up, and curveball —and each pitch's average velocity is up over one mph from last year.
While he’s throwing harder, he needs to harness his control. His biggest issue seems to be with command as he’s walking 4.81 batters per nine innings, which is his highest walk rate since his rookie season.
It’s easy to want to offer the following explanatory narrative: he’s struggling with his command. Therefore, in addition to walking batters, he’s leaving his pitches in bad spots and hitters are taking advantage.
But this narrative doesn’t pan out statistically.
For example, he did his best job avoiding walks and throwing strikes against the White Sox. But, they slammed him with five runs in four innings.
He has thrown too many balls in his other starts. But he has done well in a couple games. So we have to forget about his walks.
The key statistic here is that Berrios is getting absolutely crushed by right-handed batters.
They are hitting an insane .400 and slugging .580 against him so far. Their hard contact rate is over 60 percent.
The White Sox slammed Berrios not because of his poor command but because they have a strong, righty-heavy lineup.
Conversely, Berrios’ best games came against Pittsburgh and Cleveland.
Whereas, in terms of cumulative slugging rate of a team’s right-handed batters, the White Sox rank second, the Indians rank 27th in this category and the Pirates rank 28th.
I am very pessimistic about Milwaukee’s chances today because, in cumulative slugging rate of a team’s right-handed batters, the Brewers rank 24th.
In terms of match-up, they are therefore crucially more related to the Pirates and Indians than to the White Sox.
Berrios vs Brewers Batters
Especially without Lorenzo Cain, who opted out, Milwaukee’s lineup is not righty-heavy.
Its best hitter, Christian Yelich, is a lefty.
Arguably its most reliable right-handed hitter is Keston Hiura, who is very hit-or-miss and is only hitting .247 this year.
Overall, Milwaukee does not provide redoubtable right-handed options.
Berrios matches up well with the Brewers because they rank 29th in slugging rate against Berrios’ four pitches combined from righties.
It is true that, lately, Milwaukee has picked up its scoring.
But, since its hot (compared to before) streak began on August 14, the Brewers still only rank 28th in slugging .293 against Berrios’ four pitches combined from righties.
Brandon Woodruff
Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff (1-1, 3.16 ERA) is off to a strong start this season.
But I dislike him today because the Twins rank sixth in slugging rate against Woodruff’s three favorite pitches — the fastball, sinker, and change-up — from righties, combined.
The only other team that Woodruff has dealt with that ranks top-10 in this category is Cincinnati. The Reds played Milwaukee outside of their home ballpark and gave Woodruff his worst performance in terms of FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).
Woodruff’s greatest strength is the way in which he balances high velocity with his change of pace — particularly with his change-up.
In his worst games, he tends to struggle with either aspect of this combination, meaning either his high-velo pair of pitches (his fastball and sinker) or his change-up.
When he performed poorly against the Reds, as evidenced by his season-high 5.39 FIP, his change-up yielded the highest BA that it has all year.
One batter to look out for will be Nelson Cruz. He’s hitting .337 and slugging .652 this season.
Trends
Two trends justify a play on Minnesota full-game moneyline.
One: dating back to last season, the Twins are 4-0 at home after a loss.
Two: this season, the Brewers are 0-5 after winning their previous game by multiple runs.
Situationally, this is a good spot for the Twins.
The Verdict
While sportsbooks continue to respect Berrios, bettors are seeing his ERA and foolishly driving the line in Milwaukee’s favor.
With this betting action on the Brewers, we can take advantage of cheaper odds for the Twins.
You should take the Twins first-half moneyline because of its advantage in starting pitching and you should take the Twins full-game moneyline also because of their strong situation.
I recommend investing your usual one unit on this game with one half-unit devoted to the first-half ML and one half-unit to the full-game ML.
Best Bet: Twins first-half ML (odds TBA) & Twins full-game ML at -112 odds with 5Dimes
Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins
Thursday, August 20, 2020 at 7:10 p.m. ET on FS1 at Target Field in Minneapolis
Worried About Jose Berrios?
Despite what Jose Berrios' surface-level statistics say — he is 1-3 with a 5.92 ERA so far — he is performing well in some respects.
He is generating whiffs at nearly the highest rate in his career.
His improved whiff rate is surely a product of his improved pitch quality.
Berrios relies with relative balance on four different pitches — a fastball, sinker, change-up, and curveball —and each pitch's average velocity is up over one mph from last year.
While he’s throwing harder, he needs to harness his control. His biggest issue seems to be with command as he’s walking 4.81 batters per nine innings, which is his highest walk rate since his rookie season.
It’s easy to want to offer the following explanatory narrative: he’s struggling with his command. Therefore, in addition to walking batters, he’s leaving his pitches in bad spots and hitters are taking advantage.
But this narrative doesn’t pan out statistically.
For example, he did his best job avoiding walks and throwing strikes against the White Sox. But, they slammed him with five runs in four innings.
He has thrown too many balls in his other starts. But he has done well in a couple games. So we have to forget about his walks.
The key statistic here is that Berrios is getting absolutely crushed by right-handed batters.
They are hitting an insane .400 and slugging .580 against him so far. Their hard contact rate is over 60 percent.
The White Sox slammed Berrios not because of his poor command but because they have a strong, righty-heavy lineup.
Conversely, Berrios’ best games came against Pittsburgh and Cleveland.
Whereas, in terms of cumulative slugging rate of a team’s right-handed batters, the White Sox rank second, the Indians rank 27th in this category and the Pirates rank 28th.
I am very pessimistic about Milwaukee’s chances today because, in cumulative slugging rate of a team’s right-handed batters, the Brewers rank 24th.
In terms of match-up, they are therefore crucially more related to the Pirates and Indians than to the White Sox.
Berrios vs Brewers Batters
Especially without Lorenzo Cain, who opted out, Milwaukee’s lineup is not righty-heavy.
Its best hitter, Christian Yelich, is a lefty.
Arguably its most reliable right-handed hitter is Keston Hiura, who is very hit-or-miss and is only hitting .247 this year.
Overall, Milwaukee does not provide redoubtable right-handed options.
Berrios matches up well with the Brewers because they rank 29th in slugging rate against Berrios’ four pitches combined from righties.
It is true that, lately, Milwaukee has picked up its scoring.
But, since its hot (compared to before) streak began on August 14, the Brewers still only rank 28th in slugging .293 against Berrios’ four pitches combined from righties.
Brandon Woodruff
Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff (1-1, 3.16 ERA) is off to a strong start this season.
But I dislike him today because the Twins rank sixth in slugging rate against Woodruff’s three favorite pitches — the fastball, sinker, and change-up — from righties, combined.
The only other team that Woodruff has dealt with that ranks top-10 in this category is Cincinnati. The Reds played Milwaukee outside of their home ballpark and gave Woodruff his worst performance in terms of FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).
Woodruff’s greatest strength is the way in which he balances high velocity with his change of pace — particularly with his change-up.
In his worst games, he tends to struggle with either aspect of this combination, meaning either his high-velo pair of pitches (his fastball and sinker) or his change-up.
When he performed poorly against the Reds, as evidenced by his season-high 5.39 FIP, his change-up yielded the highest BA that it has all year.
One batter to look out for will be Nelson Cruz. He’s hitting .337 and slugging .652 this season.
Trends
Two trends justify a play on Minnesota full-game moneyline.
One: dating back to last season, the Twins are 4-0 at home after a loss.
Two: this season, the Brewers are 0-5 after winning their previous game by multiple runs.
Situationally, this is a good spot for the Twins.
The Verdict
While sportsbooks continue to respect Berrios, bettors are seeing his ERA and foolishly driving the line in Milwaukee’s favor.
With this betting action on the Brewers, we can take advantage of cheaper odds for the Twins.
You should take the Twins first-half moneyline because of its advantage in starting pitching and you should take the Twins full-game moneyline also because of their strong situation.
I recommend investing your usual one unit on this game with one half-unit devoted to the first-half ML and one half-unit to the full-game ML.
Best Bet: Twins first-half ML (odds TBA) & Twins full-game ML at -112 odds with 5Dimes
