Bet on Brewers to Outlast Gassed Rockies
The Brewers host the Rockies on Thursday afternoon in the NLDS Opener on FS1. It’s been a long time since Milwaukee has been in the playoffs. But it won’t take long for them to find victory.
Colorado (91-72) at Milwaukee (96-67)
Thursday, 5:07 ET (FS1)
MLB Pick: Brewers ML
The Rockies are coming off a victory in the win-or-go-home wild-card game. Historically, this puts them in a very bad spot. Since the expanded wild card format in 2012, the NL team that won the wild-card game is 1-5 in the first game of the next serious. The one exception was San Francisco, which pulled out a one-run victory and eventually won the World Series.
Milwaukee’s Wade Miley (5-2, 2.57 ERA) is just the pitcher to prolong Milwaukee’s winning ways. The team has won in his last seven starts. Milwaukee is 7-1 when he’s favored. Miley has generated +9.4 units overall and +5.9 units when favored.
The southpaw Miley seems to be struggling for form, but he’s merely battled bad luck. In his last start, his FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) was 3.83. But his ERA was high because he was the victim of an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite yielding a soft contact rate well above his season average and a hard contact rate well below his season average.
The southpaw Miley has refined his pitching arsenal to limit his fastball and sinker usage. Instead, he throws his cutter with 50 percent frequency and mixes in a curve and change-up with combined 37 percent frequency. Miley’s adjustment was reasonable because of how effective his cutter is. It yields a .190 opposing BA because it generates a high amount of soft contact despite throwing it so frequently for a ball. His cutter is deceptive in that he induces a swing by giving his cutter location the appearance of a strike. He does this by using its funky combo of vertical and slight arm-side movement to toy with the batter’s discernment as to which side of the lower border or periphery of the strike zone his cutter will land on. By concentrating its location in either region of the zone, he allures the batter to make soft contact at a pitch dipping out of the zone or, if the batter resists, he can tail it just enough to make it catch the outside of the zone for a strike.
Miley will do well against Colorado because he matches up well with them. The Rockies rank 18th in slugging against the cutter, curve, and change-up from lefties on the road in September. So, even while this team cultivated for itself the perception of being one of the hottest teams in baseball, Miley’s arsenal still challenged it. Besides, the Rockies have been cooling off, especially away from home, where they’ve mustered three runs in their last two games (through nine innings). Colorado’s top hitter, Nolan Arenado, hits .248 away. All-Star Charlie Blackmon hits .249 away.
Throughout the year, Milwaukee has had one of the best bullpens. It has the fifth-best ERA despite pitching more innings than almost every other pen. Jeremy Jeffress has thrown 11 straight shut-out innings. Opponents are batting .132 against Josh Hader.
Colorado’s Antonio Senzatela (6-6, 4.38 ERA) is formidable on paper. Let’s even grant Milwaukee skeptics that he will perform well. Even if he does, he won’t last too many innings. In his last five starts, he’s averaging less than six innings per outing. That means that Colorado will maybe be level for two-thirds of the game. I say „maybe“ because Milwaukee has been hitting well lately and hits better at home, where it's recently succeeded against Cardinal Jack Flaherty and slammed Giants stud Madison Bumgarner. Even if both teams are level through six, Milwaukee has a major advantage in the final third of the game. Its bullpen is fresh, whereas Colorado’s is gassed. Colorado’s top four relievers threw at least 20 pitches in Monday night’s mini-marathon and they get less than two days to rest. The only one of them who, based in the pitching history of each respective pitcher, looks adequately prepared to throw more than 10 pitches is Wade Davis. Davis is the closer, who we won’t have to worry about because Colorado won’t have the lead in the ninth inning.
Milwaukee’s hitters are consistently producing runs. Look for Christian Yelich, who is slugging an insane 1.294 in the past seven days. The Brewers won five of seven against Colorado in the regular season and will win their ninth in a row overall to take a 1-0 lead in the NLDS.
The Brewers host the Rockies on Thursday afternoon in the NLDS Opener on FS1. It’s been a long time since Milwaukee has been in the playoffs. But it won’t take long for them to find victory.
Colorado (91-72) at Milwaukee (96-67)
Thursday, 5:07 ET (FS1)
MLB Pick: Brewers ML
The Rockies are coming off a victory in the win-or-go-home wild-card game. Historically, this puts them in a very bad spot. Since the expanded wild card format in 2012, the NL team that won the wild-card game is 1-5 in the first game of the next serious. The one exception was San Francisco, which pulled out a one-run victory and eventually won the World Series.
Milwaukee’s Wade Miley (5-2, 2.57 ERA) is just the pitcher to prolong Milwaukee’s winning ways. The team has won in his last seven starts. Milwaukee is 7-1 when he’s favored. Miley has generated +9.4 units overall and +5.9 units when favored.
The southpaw Miley seems to be struggling for form, but he’s merely battled bad luck. In his last start, his FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) was 3.83. But his ERA was high because he was the victim of an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite yielding a soft contact rate well above his season average and a hard contact rate well below his season average.
The southpaw Miley has refined his pitching arsenal to limit his fastball and sinker usage. Instead, he throws his cutter with 50 percent frequency and mixes in a curve and change-up with combined 37 percent frequency. Miley’s adjustment was reasonable because of how effective his cutter is. It yields a .190 opposing BA because it generates a high amount of soft contact despite throwing it so frequently for a ball. His cutter is deceptive in that he induces a swing by giving his cutter location the appearance of a strike. He does this by using its funky combo of vertical and slight arm-side movement to toy with the batter’s discernment as to which side of the lower border or periphery of the strike zone his cutter will land on. By concentrating its location in either region of the zone, he allures the batter to make soft contact at a pitch dipping out of the zone or, if the batter resists, he can tail it just enough to make it catch the outside of the zone for a strike.
Miley will do well against Colorado because he matches up well with them. The Rockies rank 18th in slugging against the cutter, curve, and change-up from lefties on the road in September. So, even while this team cultivated for itself the perception of being one of the hottest teams in baseball, Miley’s arsenal still challenged it. Besides, the Rockies have been cooling off, especially away from home, where they’ve mustered three runs in their last two games (through nine innings). Colorado’s top hitter, Nolan Arenado, hits .248 away. All-Star Charlie Blackmon hits .249 away.
Throughout the year, Milwaukee has had one of the best bullpens. It has the fifth-best ERA despite pitching more innings than almost every other pen. Jeremy Jeffress has thrown 11 straight shut-out innings. Opponents are batting .132 against Josh Hader.
Colorado’s Antonio Senzatela (6-6, 4.38 ERA) is formidable on paper. Let’s even grant Milwaukee skeptics that he will perform well. Even if he does, he won’t last too many innings. In his last five starts, he’s averaging less than six innings per outing. That means that Colorado will maybe be level for two-thirds of the game. I say „maybe“ because Milwaukee has been hitting well lately and hits better at home, where it's recently succeeded against Cardinal Jack Flaherty and slammed Giants stud Madison Bumgarner. Even if both teams are level through six, Milwaukee has a major advantage in the final third of the game. Its bullpen is fresh, whereas Colorado’s is gassed. Colorado’s top four relievers threw at least 20 pitches in Monday night’s mini-marathon and they get less than two days to rest. The only one of them who, based in the pitching history of each respective pitcher, looks adequately prepared to throw more than 10 pitches is Wade Davis. Davis is the closer, who we won’t have to worry about because Colorado won’t have the lead in the ninth inning.
Milwaukee’s hitters are consistently producing runs. Look for Christian Yelich, who is slugging an insane 1.294 in the past seven days. The Brewers won five of seven against Colorado in the regular season and will win their ninth in a row overall to take a 1-0 lead in the NLDS.
