MLB Picks & Baseball Predictions: Best Bets of the Wild Card Round
Brewers vs Nationals
Tuesday, October 1 8:08 p.m. ET (TBS) at Nationals Park
Historically speaking, team form is critically predictive of the Wild Card results. This fact is unsurprising given how soon this one-game playoff follows Sunday’s conclusion of the regular season.
Look no further than last year for an example. The Cubs’ offense declined significantly towards the end of their regular season. They played fringe .500-level baseball and had to settle for playing in the Wild Card Game, which they lost to a much hotter Rockies team.
2015 also provides a clear-cut case. The Yankees entered their wild-card game having lost six of seven and having to face an Astro team that finished its season having won six of their last eight. Houston defeated the Yankees 3-0.
This year provides another example of two teams experiencing starkly different rhythm. The Brewers have lost three in a row. All three losses came against Colorado with their offense shouldering much of the blame.
Despite playing in hitters-friendly Coors Field, Milwaukee scored seven runs in the series opener with five of those runs coming in the final two innings of a blowout. The Brewers then combined for five runs in their final two games of the series combined, which totaled 23 innings.
Conversely, the Nationals are playing their best baseball. They enter tonight’s game on an eight-game winning streak. All eight wins came at home, where they’ll also play tonight, and seven of those wins came by multiple runs.
Ace Max Scherzer (11-7, 2.92) will start for the Nationals. You might say that he’s in poor form considering his ERA in recent outings. But most of the damage that he’s suffered has been through the home run ball.
Without going too deep into the metrics, there’s a lot of fluctuation in the ratio between the number of fly balls and home runs that a pitcher allows. The metric xFIP has significantly more predictive value than simply ERA does because it tries to account for that fluctuation. Scherzer’s xFIP was 2.04 and 1.70 in his past two starts, respectively. His command was vintage Scherzer as he threw 21 strikeouts while only walking one batter.
An in-form Scherzer is scary for a Milwaukee lineup that has seen plenty of Scherzer but with minimal success. In 143 at-bats, the Brewers hit .182 and slug .343 against him. Lorenzo Cain, who’s listed as ‚questionable,‘ is 0-for-15 facing Scherzer. Ryan Braun is 0-for-14. Mike Moustakas bats .167 with 11 strikeouts in 36 at-bats.
Remember that reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich is injured. Travis Shaw hits Scherzer relatively well, but is a non-factor given his extreme regression this year.
With Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin ready to go if needed, the Nationals are stacked with high-quality pitching.
Milwaukee will take a different pitching approach to tonight’s game, one that makes more use of its entire pitching staff. This strategy is a fair one considering that, in September, Milwaukee’s pitching staff has by far been the best, yielding a 2.91 ERA.
Brandon Woodruff (11-3, 3.63 ERA) is listed as the team’s starter. He hasn’t allowed a hit in the four innings that he pitched in September since returning from injury.
After Woodruff, Milwaukee has sundry pitching options which include Jordan Lyles, who’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in 10 of his 11 starts as a Brewer.
Brent Suter enjoys a 16-inning scoreless streak that helped him earn NL Reliever of the Month honors. Drew Pomeranz has thrived in his shift to the bullpen, producing a 1.88 ERA as a reliever. Josh Hader has always had sick stuff and scored a 1.88 September ERA.
While these three aforementioned pitchers have been so hard to touch, Washington matches up well with them insofar as they’re left-handed. The Nats slug .472 against southpaws, compared to .448 against right-handed pitchers.
The combination of Milwaukee’s struggling lineup, Washington’s Cy Young-caliber starting pitcher, and the depth of Milwaukee’s top-notch pitching staff will keep this game low-scoring. The Nats boast the superior rhythm and match-up edge to win.
Best Bet: Parlay: Nationals ML at -178 odds with 5Dimes and under 7.5 runs at +102 odds with 5Dimes
Brewers vs Nationals
Tuesday, October 1 8:08 p.m. ET (TBS) at Nationals Park
Historically speaking, team form is critically predictive of the Wild Card results. This fact is unsurprising given how soon this one-game playoff follows Sunday’s conclusion of the regular season.
Look no further than last year for an example. The Cubs’ offense declined significantly towards the end of their regular season. They played fringe .500-level baseball and had to settle for playing in the Wild Card Game, which they lost to a much hotter Rockies team.
2015 also provides a clear-cut case. The Yankees entered their wild-card game having lost six of seven and having to face an Astro team that finished its season having won six of their last eight. Houston defeated the Yankees 3-0.
This year provides another example of two teams experiencing starkly different rhythm. The Brewers have lost three in a row. All three losses came against Colorado with their offense shouldering much of the blame.
Despite playing in hitters-friendly Coors Field, Milwaukee scored seven runs in the series opener with five of those runs coming in the final two innings of a blowout. The Brewers then combined for five runs in their final two games of the series combined, which totaled 23 innings.
Conversely, the Nationals are playing their best baseball. They enter tonight’s game on an eight-game winning streak. All eight wins came at home, where they’ll also play tonight, and seven of those wins came by multiple runs.
Ace Max Scherzer (11-7, 2.92) will start for the Nationals. You might say that he’s in poor form considering his ERA in recent outings. But most of the damage that he’s suffered has been through the home run ball.
Without going too deep into the metrics, there’s a lot of fluctuation in the ratio between the number of fly balls and home runs that a pitcher allows. The metric xFIP has significantly more predictive value than simply ERA does because it tries to account for that fluctuation. Scherzer’s xFIP was 2.04 and 1.70 in his past two starts, respectively. His command was vintage Scherzer as he threw 21 strikeouts while only walking one batter.
An in-form Scherzer is scary for a Milwaukee lineup that has seen plenty of Scherzer but with minimal success. In 143 at-bats, the Brewers hit .182 and slug .343 against him. Lorenzo Cain, who’s listed as ‚questionable,‘ is 0-for-15 facing Scherzer. Ryan Braun is 0-for-14. Mike Moustakas bats .167 with 11 strikeouts in 36 at-bats.
Remember that reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich is injured. Travis Shaw hits Scherzer relatively well, but is a non-factor given his extreme regression this year.
With Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin ready to go if needed, the Nationals are stacked with high-quality pitching.
Milwaukee will take a different pitching approach to tonight’s game, one that makes more use of its entire pitching staff. This strategy is a fair one considering that, in September, Milwaukee’s pitching staff has by far been the best, yielding a 2.91 ERA.
Brandon Woodruff (11-3, 3.63 ERA) is listed as the team’s starter. He hasn’t allowed a hit in the four innings that he pitched in September since returning from injury.
After Woodruff, Milwaukee has sundry pitching options which include Jordan Lyles, who’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in 10 of his 11 starts as a Brewer.
Brent Suter enjoys a 16-inning scoreless streak that helped him earn NL Reliever of the Month honors. Drew Pomeranz has thrived in his shift to the bullpen, producing a 1.88 ERA as a reliever. Josh Hader has always had sick stuff and scored a 1.88 September ERA.
While these three aforementioned pitchers have been so hard to touch, Washington matches up well with them insofar as they’re left-handed. The Nats slug .472 against southpaws, compared to .448 against right-handed pitchers.
The combination of Milwaukee’s struggling lineup, Washington’s Cy Young-caliber starting pitcher, and the depth of Milwaukee’s top-notch pitching staff will keep this game low-scoring. The Nats boast the superior rhythm and match-up edge to win.
Best Bet: Parlay: Nationals ML at -178 odds with 5Dimes and under 7.5 runs at +102 odds with 5Dimes
