Scoreboard Will Suffer Dystrophy in Brewers-Nats Duel
Don’t miss the collision between two strong „under“ teams when Milwaukee hosts Washington on Tuesday at 8:10 ET on the MLB Network.
Nationals at Brewers
Tuesday, 8:10 ET (MLB Network)
MLB Pick: 1H Under
Bettors would be wealthier if they bet more often on Washington’s Jeremy Hellickson (4-1, 3.29 ERA) than superstar Max Scherzer. Hellickson is actually his team's most profitable starting pitcher, yielding +5.70 units. The under is hitting in 76.9% of his starts. He’s enjoying strong form, having allowed one run in his past two starts combined.
The reason that Hellickson is so profitable for backers and „under“ bettors is that oddsmakers couldn’t have known how good he would be this season. Last season, his FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) was 5.77. In his career, it’s 4.47. But this season, his FIP is 3.80. He’s surrendering fewer walks, home runs, and hard contact. The key statistic is his career-high 69.3% first-strike rate. Starting ahead in the count is significant for a pitcher because it gives him more control in an at-bat, a greater flexibility in pitch usage and location. In the MLB, batters are slugging .575 in an 0-0 count. This number drops to .494 in an 0-1 count.
Hellickson relies on five different pitches with over 10% frequency and not one with more than 25% frequency. Getting ahead of the count more often has created positive results for his pitches. For example, his opposing fastball BA was .228 last season and he has brought that number to .136. When the batter is ahead in the count, he has always been relatively predictable, leaning on his fastball over 40% of the time. But when he’s ahead of the count, he relies on his fastball less than 20% of the time so that opponents are unable to sit on it. Hellickson’s improved variety makes him less predictable and therefore harder to hit.
He is in a good spot to perform well today. Hellickson’s career FIP is at its best in July, where he’s 16-5. His career ERA is 3.03 with six days’ rest. Meanwhile, the Brewers’ slump continues. Since July 11, they’ve repeatedly lost and failed to score more than three runs. Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain have been strong components of Milwaukee's lineup, but the rest have struggled. Yelich and Cain accounted for four of the team's six hits on Sunday, three of seven on Saturday, and the tendency continues. The „under“ is hitting in 56% of Milwaukee’s home games.
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Milwaukee’s Junior Guerra (6-6, 3.23 ERA) has likewise been a positive surprise. The „under“ is hitting in 70% of his home games. He’s brought his FIP down from 6.58 last season to 3.97 this season. He’s conceded two runs combined in his last three home starts and is 3-0 with a 2.72 ERA in his career with six days’ rest.
Guerra relies primarily on a fastball-sinker combo. They make up 70% of his pitching arsenal. He also mixes in a slider and splitter. Guerra has strongly improved the velocity of all his pitches. Although it’s not one of his primary pitches, the slider has been huge for Guerra. Last season, opponents slugged .308 against it, but he has cut that number to .156 this season. His slider is a case of „less is more.“ He throws it less often overall, but more often when it counts. He’s doubled its usage with two strikes against same-handed batters, which makes sense because it’s his second-favorite whiff pitch. Its lower vertical release point makes it harder for batters to track.
In July, Washington hitters rank average in slugging against Guerra’s two favorite pitches, the fastball and sinker from righties, and 21st away from home. The „under“ is hitting in 66% of their road games. Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, and Ryan Zimmerman are combined 1-for-10 against Guerra.
Don’t miss the collision between two strong „under“ teams when Milwaukee hosts Washington on Tuesday at 8:10 ET on the MLB Network.
Nationals at Brewers
Tuesday, 8:10 ET (MLB Network)
MLB Pick: 1H Under
Bettors would be wealthier if they bet more often on Washington’s Jeremy Hellickson (4-1, 3.29 ERA) than superstar Max Scherzer. Hellickson is actually his team's most profitable starting pitcher, yielding +5.70 units. The under is hitting in 76.9% of his starts. He’s enjoying strong form, having allowed one run in his past two starts combined.
The reason that Hellickson is so profitable for backers and „under“ bettors is that oddsmakers couldn’t have known how good he would be this season. Last season, his FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) was 5.77. In his career, it’s 4.47. But this season, his FIP is 3.80. He’s surrendering fewer walks, home runs, and hard contact. The key statistic is his career-high 69.3% first-strike rate. Starting ahead in the count is significant for a pitcher because it gives him more control in an at-bat, a greater flexibility in pitch usage and location. In the MLB, batters are slugging .575 in an 0-0 count. This number drops to .494 in an 0-1 count.
Hellickson relies on five different pitches with over 10% frequency and not one with more than 25% frequency. Getting ahead of the count more often has created positive results for his pitches. For example, his opposing fastball BA was .228 last season and he has brought that number to .136. When the batter is ahead in the count, he has always been relatively predictable, leaning on his fastball over 40% of the time. But when he’s ahead of the count, he relies on his fastball less than 20% of the time so that opponents are unable to sit on it. Hellickson’s improved variety makes him less predictable and therefore harder to hit.
He is in a good spot to perform well today. Hellickson’s career FIP is at its best in July, where he’s 16-5. His career ERA is 3.03 with six days’ rest. Meanwhile, the Brewers’ slump continues. Since July 11, they’ve repeatedly lost and failed to score more than three runs. Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain have been strong components of Milwaukee's lineup, but the rest have struggled. Yelich and Cain accounted for four of the team's six hits on Sunday, three of seven on Saturday, and the tendency continues. The „under“ is hitting in 56% of Milwaukee’s home games.
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Milwaukee’s Junior Guerra (6-6, 3.23 ERA) has likewise been a positive surprise. The „under“ is hitting in 70% of his home games. He’s brought his FIP down from 6.58 last season to 3.97 this season. He’s conceded two runs combined in his last three home starts and is 3-0 with a 2.72 ERA in his career with six days’ rest.
Guerra relies primarily on a fastball-sinker combo. They make up 70% of his pitching arsenal. He also mixes in a slider and splitter. Guerra has strongly improved the velocity of all his pitches. Although it’s not one of his primary pitches, the slider has been huge for Guerra. Last season, opponents slugged .308 against it, but he has cut that number to .156 this season. His slider is a case of „less is more.“ He throws it less often overall, but more often when it counts. He’s doubled its usage with two strikes against same-handed batters, which makes sense because it’s his second-favorite whiff pitch. Its lower vertical release point makes it harder for batters to track.
In July, Washington hitters rank average in slugging against Guerra’s two favorite pitches, the fastball and sinker from righties, and 21st away from home. The „under“ is hitting in 66% of their road games. Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, and Ryan Zimmerman are combined 1-for-10 against Guerra.
