Poor Pitching Will Allow for Lots of Early Runs Between Brewers and Mets
The Brewers, having won eight of their last ten, show great team rhythm. They’ll need to score a lot to keep winning when they open a four game home series against the Mets at 8:10 ET.
New York Mets (24-21) at Milwaukee Brewers (31-19)
MLB Pick: 1H „Over“ 4.5
Milwaukee’s Zach Davies (2-3, 4.24 ERA) chose the right time to join the DL—right before his career-worst month of May, in which his FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) is 5.63, almost 1.00 higher than in any other month. Last May, he was often the beneficiary of a low opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play) and an unsustainably high percentage of runners left on base. But his FIP, which assumes an expected BABIP based on quality of contact and an average rate of runners on base scoring, was over 5.00 in four of his six May starts.
Davies began the year throwing his favorite pitch, the two-seam fastball, less frequently. Because it was effective, this usage reduction turned out to be unjustified, which he made up for by throwing it over 60% of the time in each of his last two starts, whereas he had thrown it below his career average frequency in his starts before that. The problem with Davies’ rediscovered pitch preference is that the Mets rank sixth in slugging percentage against the two-seamer thrown by right-handed pitchers. Despite their high ranking, the metric SLG-xSLG shows that they are still performing below expectation against this pitch. Despite their slump overall, their numbers against this pitch continue to be strong in May—the last starters which they have faced have unfortunately not been righties reliant on the two-seamer.
In two games, Davies has allowed a slugging percentage over .400 against his favorite pitch. The Cards and the Mets achieved six and five runs against him respectively because they slammed his favorite pitch and forced him to lean on his other, inferior stuff.
When he faced the Mets last May in Milwaukee, he surrendered four runs in five innings. Asdrubal Cabrera is his most fearsome opponent with five hits—two of which were doubles— in nine career at-bats.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Crew Love.<br><br>The <a href="https://twitter.com/Brewers?ref_src=twsrc^tfw">@Brewers</a> are off to their best 50-game start in history. <a href="https://t.co/FmcHCogo14">pic.twitter.com/FmcHCogo14</a></p>— MLB (@MLB) <a href=" ">24. Mai 2018</a></blockquote>
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Steven Matz (1-3, 4.42 ERA) is performing even worse for the Mets than it seems on the surface, as indicated by his 5.89 FIP. He is surrendering more walks and homers. Lately, he has particularly struggled with the latter, allowing four homers in his past three games. Last year, he was more often able to vary his pitch location, hit the corners of the strike zone, and avoid throwing over the heart of the plate. This year, struggles with location have caused him to allow above his career average in opposing hard contact rate in five of his past six starts. He doesn’t often induce hitters to whiff or chase pitches out of the strike zone. His opposing swing-to-contact ratio indicates that batters are enjoying a significantly higher-than-average level of comfort and selectivity against him. But his overall ERA is profiting from an opposing BABIP unsustainably lower than his career opposing BABIP.
The southpaw relies especially on a two-seam fastball, which he most frequently leaves in the middle, most hittable, parts of the strike zone. The Brewers are slugging .500 against the two-seamer thrown by lefties in these parts of the zone and it is too soon to expect regression in this area considering their strong team rhythm and their seventh-highest slugging percentage in May. Even though Matz is a southpaw, he can’t locate his pitches well enough to take advantage, which is why other teams, who share the Brewers’ struggles against southpaws, such as the Cards, could still slam him. Against both lefties and righties he is yielding an FIP over 5.80.
Look out for Lorenzo Cain, who is batting .320 in his last 14 days and slugging .700 against southpaws.
So neither pitcher is well-prepared tonight and both lineups will produce a 1H „over."
The Brewers, having won eight of their last ten, show great team rhythm. They’ll need to score a lot to keep winning when they open a four game home series against the Mets at 8:10 ET.
New York Mets (24-21) at Milwaukee Brewers (31-19)
MLB Pick: 1H „Over“ 4.5
Milwaukee’s Zach Davies (2-3, 4.24 ERA) chose the right time to join the DL—right before his career-worst month of May, in which his FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) is 5.63, almost 1.00 higher than in any other month. Last May, he was often the beneficiary of a low opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play) and an unsustainably high percentage of runners left on base. But his FIP, which assumes an expected BABIP based on quality of contact and an average rate of runners on base scoring, was over 5.00 in four of his six May starts.
Davies began the year throwing his favorite pitch, the two-seam fastball, less frequently. Because it was effective, this usage reduction turned out to be unjustified, which he made up for by throwing it over 60% of the time in each of his last two starts, whereas he had thrown it below his career average frequency in his starts before that. The problem with Davies’ rediscovered pitch preference is that the Mets rank sixth in slugging percentage against the two-seamer thrown by right-handed pitchers. Despite their high ranking, the metric SLG-xSLG shows that they are still performing below expectation against this pitch. Despite their slump overall, their numbers against this pitch continue to be strong in May—the last starters which they have faced have unfortunately not been righties reliant on the two-seamer.
In two games, Davies has allowed a slugging percentage over .400 against his favorite pitch. The Cards and the Mets achieved six and five runs against him respectively because they slammed his favorite pitch and forced him to lean on his other, inferior stuff.
When he faced the Mets last May in Milwaukee, he surrendered four runs in five innings. Asdrubal Cabrera is his most fearsome opponent with five hits—two of which were doubles— in nine career at-bats.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Crew Love.<br><br>The <a href="https://twitter.com/Brewers?ref_src=twsrc^tfw">@Brewers</a> are off to their best 50-game start in history. <a href="https://t.co/FmcHCogo14">pic.twitter.com/FmcHCogo14</a></p>— MLB (@MLB) <a href=" ">24. Mai 2018</a></blockquote>
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Steven Matz (1-3, 4.42 ERA) is performing even worse for the Mets than it seems on the surface, as indicated by his 5.89 FIP. He is surrendering more walks and homers. Lately, he has particularly struggled with the latter, allowing four homers in his past three games. Last year, he was more often able to vary his pitch location, hit the corners of the strike zone, and avoid throwing over the heart of the plate. This year, struggles with location have caused him to allow above his career average in opposing hard contact rate in five of his past six starts. He doesn’t often induce hitters to whiff or chase pitches out of the strike zone. His opposing swing-to-contact ratio indicates that batters are enjoying a significantly higher-than-average level of comfort and selectivity against him. But his overall ERA is profiting from an opposing BABIP unsustainably lower than his career opposing BABIP.
The southpaw relies especially on a two-seam fastball, which he most frequently leaves in the middle, most hittable, parts of the strike zone. The Brewers are slugging .500 against the two-seamer thrown by lefties in these parts of the zone and it is too soon to expect regression in this area considering their strong team rhythm and their seventh-highest slugging percentage in May. Even though Matz is a southpaw, he can’t locate his pitches well enough to take advantage, which is why other teams, who share the Brewers’ struggles against southpaws, such as the Cards, could still slam him. Against both lefties and righties he is yielding an FIP over 5.80.
Look out for Lorenzo Cain, who is batting .320 in his last 14 days and slugging .700 against southpaws.
So neither pitcher is well-prepared tonight and both lineups will produce a 1H „over."
ondering::hide:
Yea Matz for Cy Young huh!
