Brewers Can Inch Towards Division Lead in Clash With Cubs
The Cubs host the Brewers on Monday night on ESPN plus in a battle of the top two teams in the NL Central. Can the Brewers start catching up to the Cubs?
Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
MLB Pick: Brewers
Chicago’s Jon Lester’s (15-5, 3.53) ERA is misleading. He’s been worse since the All-Star Break with a 5.83 ERA compared to a 2.58 first-half ERA. He has developed a reputation for being inconsistent, wavering between good outings and bad ones. But one place where he’s been consistent lately is at home—consistently bad. In his last three home outings, he generated an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) over 5.50. The Cubs lost two of those three outings, yielding -1.95 units.
The southpaw Lester relies on a fastball with 44 percent frequency and most in all scenarios. It’s not special in terms of movement, but it has similar vertical and horizontal release points with some of his other pitches. This similarity creates deception so that batters don’t know which pitch is leaving his hand. Opponents are slugging .500 against it. Lester’s second favorite pitch is his cutter, which he throws with 24 percent frequency. Like his fastball, he often leaves it over the more dangerous parts of the plate and opponents slug over .400 against it. Even though the fastball and cutter comprise almost 70 percent of his arsenal, opponents are producing strong numbers against them.
Lester is actually less effective against same-handed batters. They’re slugging .520 against him. The Brewers’ BA leader is lefty Christian Yelich, who bats ..316 overall and .329 against lefties.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The <a href="https://twitter.com/Brewers?ref_src=twsrc^tfw">@Brewers</a> stay hot. <br><br>Their lead for the first Wild Card is 2.5 games. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PrevailingMoments?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#PrevailingMoments</a> <a href="https://t.co/80pMAuz9Em">pic.twitter.com/80pMAuz9Em</a></p>— MLB (@MLB) <a href=" ">9. September 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Milwaukee’s Wade Miley (3-2, 2.12 ERA) is enjoying great form. He’s allowed more than two runs in only one of his 12 starts this season— he conceded three on August 5 against the Rockies. He faced this same Cubs lineup in his last start and conceded one run in six innings, yielding a 1.99 FIP. It may seem worrisome that this same lineup gets to face him again so soon. But he also faced the Dodgers twice in less than two weeks and gave up zero earned runs in either start. In his other two rematches—with the Reds and Pirates, respectively—he yielded an FIP under 3.00.
The southpaw Miley throws his cutter with 39 percent frequency and relies on it most in every scenario except as a first pitch to lefties, where he features his fastball. Miley is consistently precise with his cutter location. He avoids the middle of the plate with it, instead concentrating it with 44 percent frequency on the periphery of the zone furthest from right-handed batters. He uses minimal arm-side movement to bring it out of the zone, although batters still swing at it at a high rate. They anticipate that it may land for a strike and end up making weak contact. Opponents bat .189 against it. Miley also relies on a fastball, curveball, and change-up with double-digit frequency. His curve is his most effective pitch. Batters are mustering a .171 BA against it. It creates a nasty velocity differential, arriving with 15 mph lower velocity than his fastball. It also has tricky negative horizontal and vertical movement, which is especially difficult for batters to adjust to because he concentrates it with 43 percent frequency in the lowest row of the strike zone.
The Cubs have seen many lefties lately and have seen much of Miley, but found little success against either. In 93 career at-bats against Miley, they’re batting .215 and slugging .333. Anthony Rizzo is 2-for-17 against him. The Cubs are 1-4 against their last five lefties faced. They’re scored three runs or fewer in five of their last seven games against a lefty.
The Cubs host the Brewers on Monday night on ESPN plus in a battle of the top two teams in the NL Central. Can the Brewers start catching up to the Cubs?
Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
MLB Pick: Brewers
Chicago’s Jon Lester’s (15-5, 3.53) ERA is misleading. He’s been worse since the All-Star Break with a 5.83 ERA compared to a 2.58 first-half ERA. He has developed a reputation for being inconsistent, wavering between good outings and bad ones. But one place where he’s been consistent lately is at home—consistently bad. In his last three home outings, he generated an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) over 5.50. The Cubs lost two of those three outings, yielding -1.95 units.
The southpaw Lester relies on a fastball with 44 percent frequency and most in all scenarios. It’s not special in terms of movement, but it has similar vertical and horizontal release points with some of his other pitches. This similarity creates deception so that batters don’t know which pitch is leaving his hand. Opponents are slugging .500 against it. Lester’s second favorite pitch is his cutter, which he throws with 24 percent frequency. Like his fastball, he often leaves it over the more dangerous parts of the plate and opponents slug over .400 against it. Even though the fastball and cutter comprise almost 70 percent of his arsenal, opponents are producing strong numbers against them.
Lester is actually less effective against same-handed batters. They’re slugging .520 against him. The Brewers’ BA leader is lefty Christian Yelich, who bats ..316 overall and .329 against lefties.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The <a href="https://twitter.com/Brewers?ref_src=twsrc^tfw">@Brewers</a> stay hot. <br><br>Their lead for the first Wild Card is 2.5 games. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PrevailingMoments?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#PrevailingMoments</a> <a href="https://t.co/80pMAuz9Em">pic.twitter.com/80pMAuz9Em</a></p>— MLB (@MLB) <a href=" ">9. September 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Milwaukee’s Wade Miley (3-2, 2.12 ERA) is enjoying great form. He’s allowed more than two runs in only one of his 12 starts this season— he conceded three on August 5 against the Rockies. He faced this same Cubs lineup in his last start and conceded one run in six innings, yielding a 1.99 FIP. It may seem worrisome that this same lineup gets to face him again so soon. But he also faced the Dodgers twice in less than two weeks and gave up zero earned runs in either start. In his other two rematches—with the Reds and Pirates, respectively—he yielded an FIP under 3.00.
The southpaw Miley throws his cutter with 39 percent frequency and relies on it most in every scenario except as a first pitch to lefties, where he features his fastball. Miley is consistently precise with his cutter location. He avoids the middle of the plate with it, instead concentrating it with 44 percent frequency on the periphery of the zone furthest from right-handed batters. He uses minimal arm-side movement to bring it out of the zone, although batters still swing at it at a high rate. They anticipate that it may land for a strike and end up making weak contact. Opponents bat .189 against it. Miley also relies on a fastball, curveball, and change-up with double-digit frequency. His curve is his most effective pitch. Batters are mustering a .171 BA against it. It creates a nasty velocity differential, arriving with 15 mph lower velocity than his fastball. It also has tricky negative horizontal and vertical movement, which is especially difficult for batters to adjust to because he concentrates it with 43 percent frequency in the lowest row of the strike zone.
The Cubs have seen many lefties lately and have seen much of Miley, but found little success against either. In 93 career at-bats against Miley, they’re batting .215 and slugging .333. Anthony Rizzo is 2-for-17 against him. The Cubs are 1-4 against their last five lefties faced. They’re scored three runs or fewer in five of their last seven games against a lefty.
