Brewers vs. Cardinals: MLB Best Bets
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Thursday, September 24, 2020 at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Kwang Hyun Kim
St. Louis starter Kwang Hyun Kim seems to be performing well — and may therefore seem reliable — based on his surface stats.
While he’s 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in eight games and seven starts so far, the underlying data paints a more honest and simultaneously more negative picture.
He’s been fortunate thus far to leave 86.8 percent of opposing baserunners on base. Such a high strand rate is statistically unsustainable.
Moreover, he’s benefitted from yielding a .202 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) even though he’s unreliably inducing soft contact.
His FIP, which is like ERA but factors out fielding, is 3.98. His xFIP, which is like FIP but adjusts for the league-average ratio of home runs to fly balls, is 4.53.
I would consider a first-half wager on Milwaukee in order to fade Kim. But Kim is most likely to struggle as his outing continues — in case he does make it past five innings.
Starting pitchers generally want at least three solid options. While the effectivity of his two most frequent pitches gets overstated given some of the above details, his third pitch is undeniably vulnerable.
His third-favorite pitch, which is his curveball, is yielding a .429 BA and 1.000 slugging rate.
Kim vs Brewer Batters
Besides Kim’s surface stats, earlier impressions of Milwaukee’s lineup may mislead bettors.
Early in the season, the Brewers struggled to hit especially against left-handed pitchers.
But they have climbed to rank 15th in BA against southpaws.
While 15th is by no means amazing, you need to keep in mind that this stat also still accounts for Milwaukee’s earlier struggles.
Likewise, this stat by itself hardly does justice to Milwaukee’s improvement.
I like the Brewers to hit Kim well today because their recent improvement expresses itself in the following stat:
In September, Milwaukee ranks sixth in slugging .513 against Kim’s two favorite pitches from lefties.
Kim’s two favorite pitches — his fastball and slider —make up 81 percent of his pitching arsenal.
So Kim will be unable to escape the match-up threat posed by the Brewers.
One batter to look for is Jedd Gyorko. Gyorko shows positive form, producing a hit in each of his last three games.
He also loves facing southpaws and especially southpaws who throw a lot of fastballs.
As of now, he’s hitting .293 and slugging a sick .707 against left-handed pitching.
Corbin Burnes
Milwaukee starter Corbin Burnes (4-0, 1.77 ERA) shows dominant form. Unlike Kim’s case, in Corbin’s case the metrics and underlying stats support what the surface stats show.
In four of his last five starts, he’s allowed zero runs while lasting six innings. In the one exception, he allowed all of one run in 4.2 innings.
His FIP was under 1.00 in each of his last three starts and under 2.00 in each of his previous six starts. His xFIP was under 3.00 in all of his previous five starts.
Burnes is striking out more batters than he ever has before while he’s monumentally improved his command to progress from allowing 3.12 home runs per nine innings last year to allowing 0.16 home runs this year.
He’s doing a great job avoiding the middle of the plate. He’s been so accurate with his placement that he’s able to locate his stuff away from the more hittable parts of the plate.
Instead, Burnes’s seven most-frequent strike locations are along a border of the zone.
Moreover, Burnes has improved his pitch selection. He added a new pitch — a cutter -- this season, which he throws 27 percent of the time and which yields a .161 opposing BA.
Variety has helped him in terms of overall pitch selection. His pitch usage has grown more diverse in different parts of the count, such that he isn’t more predictably relying too much on certain pitches in certain situations.
Burnes vs Cardinal Batters
While it’s true that the Cards have strong numbers against Burnes, these come from early last season when Burnes was a different pitcher.
48 at-bats is not a lot. But that’s the only sample which Cardinal batters can offer. They have already fallen victim to an improved Burnes in 2020.
Currently, the Cards rank 25th in slugging against Burnes' two-favorite pitches, the sinker and cutter, from righties.
Expect, for example, Yadier Molina to keep struggling against Burnes. He’s 0-for-3 with a strikeout thus far.
The Verdict
When we compare underlying statistics, pitching repertoires, and recent performances, Corbin Burnes seems much more promising than his Cardinal counterpart.
With a bullpen that is at least as fresh as St. Louis’ and considerably superior in terms of FIP, Milwaukee represents a solid full-game play.
Best Bet: Brewers ML -131 (BetOnline)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Thursday, September 24, 2020 at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Kwang Hyun Kim
St. Louis starter Kwang Hyun Kim seems to be performing well — and may therefore seem reliable — based on his surface stats.
While he’s 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in eight games and seven starts so far, the underlying data paints a more honest and simultaneously more negative picture.
He’s been fortunate thus far to leave 86.8 percent of opposing baserunners on base. Such a high strand rate is statistically unsustainable.
Moreover, he’s benefitted from yielding a .202 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) even though he’s unreliably inducing soft contact.
His FIP, which is like ERA but factors out fielding, is 3.98. His xFIP, which is like FIP but adjusts for the league-average ratio of home runs to fly balls, is 4.53.
I would consider a first-half wager on Milwaukee in order to fade Kim. But Kim is most likely to struggle as his outing continues — in case he does make it past five innings.
Starting pitchers generally want at least three solid options. While the effectivity of his two most frequent pitches gets overstated given some of the above details, his third pitch is undeniably vulnerable.
His third-favorite pitch, which is his curveball, is yielding a .429 BA and 1.000 slugging rate.
Kim vs Brewer Batters
Besides Kim’s surface stats, earlier impressions of Milwaukee’s lineup may mislead bettors.
Early in the season, the Brewers struggled to hit especially against left-handed pitchers.
But they have climbed to rank 15th in BA against southpaws.
While 15th is by no means amazing, you need to keep in mind that this stat also still accounts for Milwaukee’s earlier struggles.
Likewise, this stat by itself hardly does justice to Milwaukee’s improvement.
I like the Brewers to hit Kim well today because their recent improvement expresses itself in the following stat:
In September, Milwaukee ranks sixth in slugging .513 against Kim’s two favorite pitches from lefties.
Kim’s two favorite pitches — his fastball and slider —make up 81 percent of his pitching arsenal.
So Kim will be unable to escape the match-up threat posed by the Brewers.
One batter to look for is Jedd Gyorko. Gyorko shows positive form, producing a hit in each of his last three games.
He also loves facing southpaws and especially southpaws who throw a lot of fastballs.
As of now, he’s hitting .293 and slugging a sick .707 against left-handed pitching.
Corbin Burnes
Milwaukee starter Corbin Burnes (4-0, 1.77 ERA) shows dominant form. Unlike Kim’s case, in Corbin’s case the metrics and underlying stats support what the surface stats show.
In four of his last five starts, he’s allowed zero runs while lasting six innings. In the one exception, he allowed all of one run in 4.2 innings.
His FIP was under 1.00 in each of his last three starts and under 2.00 in each of his previous six starts. His xFIP was under 3.00 in all of his previous five starts.
Burnes is striking out more batters than he ever has before while he’s monumentally improved his command to progress from allowing 3.12 home runs per nine innings last year to allowing 0.16 home runs this year.
He’s doing a great job avoiding the middle of the plate. He’s been so accurate with his placement that he’s able to locate his stuff away from the more hittable parts of the plate.
Instead, Burnes’s seven most-frequent strike locations are along a border of the zone.
Moreover, Burnes has improved his pitch selection. He added a new pitch — a cutter -- this season, which he throws 27 percent of the time and which yields a .161 opposing BA.
Variety has helped him in terms of overall pitch selection. His pitch usage has grown more diverse in different parts of the count, such that he isn’t more predictably relying too much on certain pitches in certain situations.
Burnes vs Cardinal Batters
While it’s true that the Cards have strong numbers against Burnes, these come from early last season when Burnes was a different pitcher.
48 at-bats is not a lot. But that’s the only sample which Cardinal batters can offer. They have already fallen victim to an improved Burnes in 2020.
Currently, the Cards rank 25th in slugging against Burnes' two-favorite pitches, the sinker and cutter, from righties.
Expect, for example, Yadier Molina to keep struggling against Burnes. He’s 0-for-3 with a strikeout thus far.
The Verdict
When we compare underlying statistics, pitching repertoires, and recent performances, Corbin Burnes seems much more promising than his Cardinal counterpart.
With a bullpen that is at least as fresh as St. Louis’ and considerably superior in terms of FIP, Milwaukee represents a solid full-game play.
Best Bet: Brewers ML -131 (BetOnline)
