Scoreboard Operator Barely Needed in Cardinals-Brewers Clash
The Brewers begin a four-game series with divisional opponent St. Louis tonight at 8:10 ET. Bettors can expect a tight affair in which runs are scarce.
St. Louis Cardinals (38-34; 29-38-4 O/U) at Milwaukee Brewers (43-30; 28-43-2 O/U)
MLB Pick: Under 9
An „under“ may seem unlikely in what is considered a hitter-friendly ballpark. But the ballpark is, by itself, no justification for an „over“ or „under“ because oddsmakers already account for it—which is why, for example, betting totals in Colorado are so high. The „under“ is hitting in 60% of Milwaukee’s home games, probably because oddsmakers expect bettors to thoughtlessly lean „over“ in Milwaukee.
Carlos Martinez (3-3, 2.73 ERA) showed promise for St. Louis in his third start since returning from the DL on May 5. He endured the most innings and faced the most batters since his return because he was able to induce a high soft contact rate and below-average line drive percentage. His four-seam fastball was especially effective. He didn’t allow a hit with it even though the Cubs rank six in slugging against the high-velo (94-98 mph) fastball. Martinez led the NL in ERA before hitting the DL. His velocity is back. In his fourth post-DL start, his control, which he has been refining in practice, should return as well.
But even if Martinez walks a few too many batters, Martinez can rely on his more effective pitches with runners in scoring position. Since returning from the DL, he has thrown his four-seamer more than in any start prior. Against the Cubs, he threw it with 50% frequency with RISP. The Brewers are the second-most overachieving team against the high-velo fastball from righties and so are due for statistical regression against it. In June, they rank 11th in slugging against the fastball from righties. Even though they did better against the fastball earlier in the season, they slugged less than .150 combined against Martinez’ fastball in two April starts against him.
I like that Martinez is coming off only four days’ rest since he is trying to sharpen up. Regardless of rest, he’s thrived against Milwaukee this year, allowing one run in 14.1 innings. Last year, facing the Brewers a third time didn’t present extra difficult for him.
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Brent Suter (7-4, 4.30 ERA) starts for Milwaukee because yesterday’s game was postponed. The extra rest will benefit Suter, who, in his career, is 6-2 with a 2.35 ERA with five days’ rest, compared to 2-3 and 5.16 ERA with four. This statistical disparity is supported by the statistic FIP, which is like ERA, but factors out luck. Suter was on four days’ rest when he yielded two homers in his last start against the Cards. All his multi-homer games in 2018 came on as little rest.
Home runs are important because the Cards depend on them. They rank 19 in runs per game, but five in homers per game. Suter trusts his four-seam fastball with 67% frequency, so his key will be to prevent homers against his fastball. The Cards tend not to crush the fastball. They rank 29 in average exit velocity against the fastball from southpaws, 23 in average distance and 29 in launch angle. Of what little offense St. Louis has enjoyed recently, Marcell Ozuna and Jose Martinez have arguably been the two greatest contributors. Both lead the team in BA, but are cooling off. Martinez is 2-for-12 since returning from paternity leave. Ozuna is 1-for-13.
The Cards’ bullpen has new life. Greg Holland has been dominant with his stuff, achieving two shutout innings with only 21 total pitches since returning from the DL. Jordan Hicks has allowed one hit and zero runs in 5.1 innings against Milwaukee. New addition southpaw Austin Gomber can, like Hicks, endure multiple innings. The Brewers rank 26 in slugging lefties. The Brewers’ pen is fresh and ranks fourth in ERA. Jeremy Jeffress, Josh Hader, and Jacob Barnes each boast a sub-two ERA.
Both the Cards and Brew Crew will continue to be strong „under“ teams thanks to tonight’s pitchers.
The Brewers begin a four-game series with divisional opponent St. Louis tonight at 8:10 ET. Bettors can expect a tight affair in which runs are scarce.
St. Louis Cardinals (38-34; 29-38-4 O/U) at Milwaukee Brewers (43-30; 28-43-2 O/U)
MLB Pick: Under 9
An „under“ may seem unlikely in what is considered a hitter-friendly ballpark. But the ballpark is, by itself, no justification for an „over“ or „under“ because oddsmakers already account for it—which is why, for example, betting totals in Colorado are so high. The „under“ is hitting in 60% of Milwaukee’s home games, probably because oddsmakers expect bettors to thoughtlessly lean „over“ in Milwaukee.
Carlos Martinez (3-3, 2.73 ERA) showed promise for St. Louis in his third start since returning from the DL on May 5. He endured the most innings and faced the most batters since his return because he was able to induce a high soft contact rate and below-average line drive percentage. His four-seam fastball was especially effective. He didn’t allow a hit with it even though the Cubs rank six in slugging against the high-velo (94-98 mph) fastball. Martinez led the NL in ERA before hitting the DL. His velocity is back. In his fourth post-DL start, his control, which he has been refining in practice, should return as well.
But even if Martinez walks a few too many batters, Martinez can rely on his more effective pitches with runners in scoring position. Since returning from the DL, he has thrown his four-seamer more than in any start prior. Against the Cubs, he threw it with 50% frequency with RISP. The Brewers are the second-most overachieving team against the high-velo fastball from righties and so are due for statistical regression against it. In June, they rank 11th in slugging against the fastball from righties. Even though they did better against the fastball earlier in the season, they slugged less than .150 combined against Martinez’ fastball in two April starts against him.
I like that Martinez is coming off only four days’ rest since he is trying to sharpen up. Regardless of rest, he’s thrived against Milwaukee this year, allowing one run in 14.1 innings. Last year, facing the Brewers a third time didn’t present extra difficult for him.
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Brent Suter (7-4, 4.30 ERA) starts for Milwaukee because yesterday’s game was postponed. The extra rest will benefit Suter, who, in his career, is 6-2 with a 2.35 ERA with five days’ rest, compared to 2-3 and 5.16 ERA with four. This statistical disparity is supported by the statistic FIP, which is like ERA, but factors out luck. Suter was on four days’ rest when he yielded two homers in his last start against the Cards. All his multi-homer games in 2018 came on as little rest.
Home runs are important because the Cards depend on them. They rank 19 in runs per game, but five in homers per game. Suter trusts his four-seam fastball with 67% frequency, so his key will be to prevent homers against his fastball. The Cards tend not to crush the fastball. They rank 29 in average exit velocity against the fastball from southpaws, 23 in average distance and 29 in launch angle. Of what little offense St. Louis has enjoyed recently, Marcell Ozuna and Jose Martinez have arguably been the two greatest contributors. Both lead the team in BA, but are cooling off. Martinez is 2-for-12 since returning from paternity leave. Ozuna is 1-for-13.
The Cards’ bullpen has new life. Greg Holland has been dominant with his stuff, achieving two shutout innings with only 21 total pitches since returning from the DL. Jordan Hicks has allowed one hit and zero runs in 5.1 innings against Milwaukee. New addition southpaw Austin Gomber can, like Hicks, endure multiple innings. The Brewers rank 26 in slugging lefties. The Brewers’ pen is fresh and ranks fourth in ERA. Jeremy Jeffress, Josh Hader, and Jacob Barnes each boast a sub-two ERA.
Both the Cards and Brew Crew will continue to be strong „under“ teams thanks to tonight’s pitchers.
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