Brewers Lack Recipe Against Braves
Milwaukee welcomes Atlanta for a four-game series tonight at 8:10 ET. The Brewers' starting pitcher is much more experienced, but the match-up doesn’t favor him in the least.
Atlanta Braves (49-36) vs Milwaukee Brewers (51-35)
MLB Pick: Atlanta 1H
Milwaukee’s Jhoulys Chacin (6-3, 3.71 ERA) looks to rediscover his command. He’s walked eight batters in his past two starts.
From 2009 to 2014, Chacin relied primarily on his four-seam fastball. It averaged 1-2 mph more than it does now mostly because his home ballpark was Colorado’s Coors Field, where the fastball plays faster. Since 2014, Chacin relies increasingly on a sinker-slider combo. The two pitches comprise over 70% of his pitching arsenal. He is confident enough to throw them against both left-handed and right-handed batters, although he emphasizes his slider against same-handed batters. His slider is an effective pitch, especially against same-handed batters, because of its strong horizontal movement, which makes it harder for them to perceive. It is a more difficult pitch to track because it lacks vertical movement and therefore doesn’t really hang.
In Chacin’s worst games, against the Padres, Reds, and Cardinals, the opponent slugged his two favorite pitches well. The Braves rank seventh in slugging against the sinker and slider from righties. Chacin struggles especially against lefties, who are batting .270 against him, compared to .203 for righties. The Braves boast a lefty-heavy lineup with Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis leading Atlanta in terms of BA. Freeman and Markakis are combined 9-for-16 with three doubles and two homers against Chacin. Overall, current Atlanta hitters bat .381 and slug .643 against Chacin.
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Max Fried (1-2, 2.55 ERA) counters for Atlanta. Fried has shown strong form since his call-up on May 28, conceding one earned run in 11.2 innings. His first-pitch strike percentage has improved from last year when he first entered the majors, but it is still below-average. Fried thrives because he has good stuff, evidenced in the low rate of opposing contact and his repeated ability to induce batters to chase his pitches outside the strike zone and to swing and miss.
The southpaw Fried relies primarily on his fastball, which he throws over half the time. It’s his favorite pitch against both lefties and righties and he trusts it most in almost every scenario. Since Fried’s pitching arsenal doesn’t offer much variety, he creates variety through his location. Fried excels at varying his fastball location, frequently hitting every region of the strike zone with it. Importantly, he avoids the dead middle, most hittable part of the zone, throwing only 1.32% of his fastballs there. 27% of his fastballs hit the furthest periphery of the zone. Fried’s other primary pitch is his curveball, which he throws with 27% frequency. His opposing slugging numbers with this pitch are poor on the season, but only because of his first two outings in April. In his four outings since then, opponents haven’t touched this pitch. His curveball has become his favorite whiff pitch thanks to its powerful vertical movement, which makes it elusive. He also locates it much better. Initially, he left it with 33% frequency in the middle three rows of the zone. Now, he concentrates its location down and away or up and inside, either way on the fringes of the zone.
The Brewers are unreliable against southpaws. Despite being a very profitable team overall, they yield -2.8 units against lefties. They also match up poorly against Fried’s top pitches, ranking 26th in slugging against the fastball from lefties in the past month and 30th against the curve from lefties. Milwaukee’s top hitters look to be in poor shape tonight. Lorenzo Cain, Milwaukee’s BA leader, is injured. Christian Yelich, who is second behind Cain, is batting .222 in his past 15 days. Jonathan Villar has one extra-base hit in his past 17 at-bats. Travis Shaw bats only .203 against lefties.
Milwaukee welcomes Atlanta for a four-game series tonight at 8:10 ET. The Brewers' starting pitcher is much more experienced, but the match-up doesn’t favor him in the least.
Atlanta Braves (49-36) vs Milwaukee Brewers (51-35)
MLB Pick: Atlanta 1H
Milwaukee’s Jhoulys Chacin (6-3, 3.71 ERA) looks to rediscover his command. He’s walked eight batters in his past two starts.
From 2009 to 2014, Chacin relied primarily on his four-seam fastball. It averaged 1-2 mph more than it does now mostly because his home ballpark was Colorado’s Coors Field, where the fastball plays faster. Since 2014, Chacin relies increasingly on a sinker-slider combo. The two pitches comprise over 70% of his pitching arsenal. He is confident enough to throw them against both left-handed and right-handed batters, although he emphasizes his slider against same-handed batters. His slider is an effective pitch, especially against same-handed batters, because of its strong horizontal movement, which makes it harder for them to perceive. It is a more difficult pitch to track because it lacks vertical movement and therefore doesn’t really hang.
In Chacin’s worst games, against the Padres, Reds, and Cardinals, the opponent slugged his two favorite pitches well. The Braves rank seventh in slugging against the sinker and slider from righties. Chacin struggles especially against lefties, who are batting .270 against him, compared to .203 for righties. The Braves boast a lefty-heavy lineup with Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis leading Atlanta in terms of BA. Freeman and Markakis are combined 9-for-16 with three doubles and two homers against Chacin. Overall, current Atlanta hitters bat .381 and slug .643 against Chacin.
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Max Fried (1-2, 2.55 ERA) counters for Atlanta. Fried has shown strong form since his call-up on May 28, conceding one earned run in 11.2 innings. His first-pitch strike percentage has improved from last year when he first entered the majors, but it is still below-average. Fried thrives because he has good stuff, evidenced in the low rate of opposing contact and his repeated ability to induce batters to chase his pitches outside the strike zone and to swing and miss.
The southpaw Fried relies primarily on his fastball, which he throws over half the time. It’s his favorite pitch against both lefties and righties and he trusts it most in almost every scenario. Since Fried’s pitching arsenal doesn’t offer much variety, he creates variety through his location. Fried excels at varying his fastball location, frequently hitting every region of the strike zone with it. Importantly, he avoids the dead middle, most hittable part of the zone, throwing only 1.32% of his fastballs there. 27% of his fastballs hit the furthest periphery of the zone. Fried’s other primary pitch is his curveball, which he throws with 27% frequency. His opposing slugging numbers with this pitch are poor on the season, but only because of his first two outings in April. In his four outings since then, opponents haven’t touched this pitch. His curveball has become his favorite whiff pitch thanks to its powerful vertical movement, which makes it elusive. He also locates it much better. Initially, he left it with 33% frequency in the middle three rows of the zone. Now, he concentrates its location down and away or up and inside, either way on the fringes of the zone.
The Brewers are unreliable against southpaws. Despite being a very profitable team overall, they yield -2.8 units against lefties. They also match up poorly against Fried’s top pitches, ranking 26th in slugging against the fastball from lefties in the past month and 30th against the curve from lefties. Milwaukee’s top hitters look to be in poor shape tonight. Lorenzo Cain, Milwaukee’s BA leader, is injured. Christian Yelich, who is second behind Cain, is batting .222 in his past 15 days. Jonathan Villar has one extra-base hit in his past 17 at-bats. Travis Shaw bats only .203 against lefties.
