Today's Plays Include a (+221) MLB Parlay
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Friday, April 22, 2022 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia
Ranger Suarez
Philadelphia starter Ranger Suarez is a lefty who will try to keep the ball on the ground.
He is currently inducing ground balls with 64.3 percent frequency.
Suarez does this primarily with a sinker which he features with 50 percent frequency.
His second favorite pitch, the changeup, is likewise a pitch that he'll usually locate in the lower parts of the strike zone.
Its above-average vertical movement makes it easier for him to locate it low.
Brewer Batters
To be clear, Milwaukee's lineup isn't good in the first place.
Its top hitter has a BA of .250, which is far from impressive.
The Brewers' biggest name is Christian Yelich. But Yelich is still batting under .200.
Rowdy Tellez is their most significant source of power, but it seems objectively unlikely that he'll manage a home run in a third consecutive game.
I dislike Milwaukee's lineup tonight particularly because of its weakness against left-handed pitching.
Whereas the Brewers slug .387 against right-handed starters, they slug .258 against left-handed ones.
Freddy Peralta vs. Philly Batters
Fading Freddy Peralta tonight isn't about looking at his ERA and dismissing him.
It would be disingenuous of me to tell you that Peralta is some bad, struggling pitcher, because the rates at which he's inducing whiffs and soft contact are promising in a long-term sense.
But just because a pitcher has been more unfortunate than bad does not mean that he is "due" to succeed in a random start.
Tonight will not be the night in which Peralta starts turning things around.
I dislike Peralta tonight intensely because, overall, Philly batters own him.
In at least five at-bats against him, Rhys Hoskins, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Nick Castellanos all slug 1.000 or higher against him.
Philly Bullpen
The Phillies will have their top relievers fresh tonight.
So, in case of a close game, there's no reason to feel insecure about their ability to protect a lead.
It is Milwaukee, rather, that will have to stretch its bullpen out after Philly batters resume their dominance over Peralta.
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners
Friday, April 22, 2022 at 8:40 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
Chris Flexen
Mariner starter Chris Flexen has evolved over the years.
Instead of featuring a slider, he now emphasizes a cutter.
This latter pitch is one in which he'll distribute well among different parts of the plate.
As heat maps also show, he excels at locating this pitch along the edges of the strike zone.
His favorite pitch, however, is his fastball. As is the case with his other pitches, he relies primarily on command and location in order to succeed.
Royal Batters
Kansas City has not been hitting well. In its six games, all since April 13, it has exceeded three runs in one game.
In this one exception, the Royals mustered four runs.
Royal batters are in a particularly bad spot tonight because they rank 29thin slugging .290 against Flexen's three favorite pitches, the fastball, changeup, and cutter from righties.
Brad Keller vs. Mariner Batters
Royal starter Brad Keller is coming off a strong start, but he got to pitch against Detroit.
Unlike the Tigers, Seattle has strong team batting numbers that are decisive for this game. The Mariners average 5.67 runs in home games.
The M's look especially promising tonight because they rank 10thin slugging against Keller's favorite pitches.
Also, Keller is 0-2 with a 5.51 ERA in three career starts in Seattle.
Bullpen
Based on ERA differential, Seattle has the clear edge over Kansas City in bullpen.
Since guys like Erik Swanson are demonstrably capable of pitching in consecutive outings, Mariner relievers are ready overall to protect the lead tonight.
Best Bet: Parlay Phillies ML at -121 & Mariners ML at -132 at +221 odds with BetOnline
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Friday, April 22, 2022 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia
Ranger Suarez
Philadelphia starter Ranger Suarez is a lefty who will try to keep the ball on the ground.
He is currently inducing ground balls with 64.3 percent frequency.
Suarez does this primarily with a sinker which he features with 50 percent frequency.
His second favorite pitch, the changeup, is likewise a pitch that he'll usually locate in the lower parts of the strike zone.
Its above-average vertical movement makes it easier for him to locate it low.
Brewer Batters
To be clear, Milwaukee's lineup isn't good in the first place.
Its top hitter has a BA of .250, which is far from impressive.
The Brewers' biggest name is Christian Yelich. But Yelich is still batting under .200.
Rowdy Tellez is their most significant source of power, but it seems objectively unlikely that he'll manage a home run in a third consecutive game.
I dislike Milwaukee's lineup tonight particularly because of its weakness against left-handed pitching.
Whereas the Brewers slug .387 against right-handed starters, they slug .258 against left-handed ones.
Freddy Peralta vs. Philly Batters
Fading Freddy Peralta tonight isn't about looking at his ERA and dismissing him.
It would be disingenuous of me to tell you that Peralta is some bad, struggling pitcher, because the rates at which he's inducing whiffs and soft contact are promising in a long-term sense.
But just because a pitcher has been more unfortunate than bad does not mean that he is "due" to succeed in a random start.
Tonight will not be the night in which Peralta starts turning things around.
I dislike Peralta tonight intensely because, overall, Philly batters own him.
In at least five at-bats against him, Rhys Hoskins, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Nick Castellanos all slug 1.000 or higher against him.
Philly Bullpen
The Phillies will have their top relievers fresh tonight.
So, in case of a close game, there's no reason to feel insecure about their ability to protect a lead.
It is Milwaukee, rather, that will have to stretch its bullpen out after Philly batters resume their dominance over Peralta.
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners
Friday, April 22, 2022 at 8:40 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
Chris Flexen
Mariner starter Chris Flexen has evolved over the years.
Instead of featuring a slider, he now emphasizes a cutter.
This latter pitch is one in which he'll distribute well among different parts of the plate.
As heat maps also show, he excels at locating this pitch along the edges of the strike zone.
His favorite pitch, however, is his fastball. As is the case with his other pitches, he relies primarily on command and location in order to succeed.
Royal Batters
Kansas City has not been hitting well. In its six games, all since April 13, it has exceeded three runs in one game.
In this one exception, the Royals mustered four runs.
Royal batters are in a particularly bad spot tonight because they rank 29thin slugging .290 against Flexen's three favorite pitches, the fastball, changeup, and cutter from righties.
Brad Keller vs. Mariner Batters
Royal starter Brad Keller is coming off a strong start, but he got to pitch against Detroit.
Unlike the Tigers, Seattle has strong team batting numbers that are decisive for this game. The Mariners average 5.67 runs in home games.
The M's look especially promising tonight because they rank 10thin slugging against Keller's favorite pitches.
Also, Keller is 0-2 with a 5.51 ERA in three career starts in Seattle.
Bullpen
Based on ERA differential, Seattle has the clear edge over Kansas City in bullpen.
Since guys like Erik Swanson are demonstrably capable of pitching in consecutive outings, Mariner relievers are ready overall to protect the lead tonight.
Best Bet: Parlay Phillies ML at -121 & Mariners ML at -132 at +221 odds with BetOnline
