Today's Plays Include a (+381) MLB Parlay
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
Friday, April 8, 2022 at 2:20 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago
Brandon Woodruff Concerns
Brewer starter Brandon Woodruff enters this season buoyed by a strong level of hype after his performance last year.
One key difference, though, between last year and this year is his preparedness for the season.
Last year, his Spring Training numbers were adequate. A 3.77 ERA decently shows that a pitcher is ready for the regular season.
This year, however, Woodruff absolutely bombed during Spring Training, offering negligible hope that he is ready to resume the fitness he displayed last season.
To be precise, he suffered a 10.80 ERA in three starts.
The only time in his career where he suffered a remotely similar Spring Training was 2018.
His Spring Training ERA that year was 7.11 and he continued to struggle at the start of that year's regular season.
Catcher
One important reason for Woodruff's struggles is the departure of his favorite catcher, Manny Pina.
During his stellar 2021 season, his ERA was by far its best with Pina behind the plate.
With Pina now in Atlanta, Woodruff does not have a favorite catcher to work with.
Ian Happ
As Woodruff works with catchers who he is less comfortable with, there will be an adjustment phase the occurrence of which we want to take advantage of by placing our trust in Cub batters.
One notable Cub batter is Ian Happ who built off a strong Spring Training finale by going 3-for-4 with two doubles on Opening Day.
Justin Steele
Cub starter Justin Steele's numbers were not good on the surface last year.
But he performed excellently when he managed to avoid the long ball.
Preventing the long ball formed a focus of his offseason.
He has clearly made decisive progress in this respect, because he allowed zero home runs during Spring Training.
As a pitcher who induces a lot of ground balls -- he generated them at a 50.3 percent rate last year -- he is already stylistically inclined to keep batted balls on the ground.
Lefty
I like that Steele is a lefty today against this Brewer lineup.
Most notably, Milwaukee's biggest name in its lineup is a lefty, Christian Yelich, who hit .187 against same-handed pitchers last year.
Yelich may be in, therefore, for a second straight hitless outing.
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Friday, April 8, 2022 at 1:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park in Detroit
Ready to Pounce
One should have confidence in the White Sox lineup when it faces a left-handed starting pitcher.
Last year, the White Sox produced a .449 slugging rate against lefty starters compared to a .413 one against right-handed starters.
They certainly have the personnel to pounce again on lefties with powerful right-handed bats like Jose Abreu and Eloy Jimenez coming off very strong Spring Training performances.
Over the course of many at-bats in Spring Training, Abreu slugged .552 and Jimenez .667.
Southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez will face them for the first time as a Tiger.
In addition to facing chemistry issues with his new catcher, a starting pitcher is often nervous during his first start with a new team.
Lucas Giolito
Last year, White Sox starter Lucas Giolito suffered an 0-3, 5.16 ERA stat line in five starts against Detroit.
His vulnerability against Detroit is also evident in the strong numbers that individual Tiger batters have produced against him.
Five different ones hit at least .333 in nine or more at-bats versus Giolito.
It would be great if newcomer Javier Baez can go. He is listed as 'questionable' with an elbow injury.
For his career, Baez is slugging .909 against Giolito.
But, if necessary, plenty of other Tigers have the historical success against Giolito to step up confidently in his absence.
Parlay Verdict
The Cubs are live underdogs while both White Sox and Tiger lineups are in a great spot match-up wise.
For the above reasons, parlay the Cubs ML and the White Sox/Tigers "over."
Best Bet: Parlay Cubs ML at +144 & White Sox/Tigers Over 8 at -103 at +381 odds with Heritage
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
Friday, April 8, 2022 at 2:20 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago
Brandon Woodruff Concerns
Brewer starter Brandon Woodruff enters this season buoyed by a strong level of hype after his performance last year.
One key difference, though, between last year and this year is his preparedness for the season.
Last year, his Spring Training numbers were adequate. A 3.77 ERA decently shows that a pitcher is ready for the regular season.
This year, however, Woodruff absolutely bombed during Spring Training, offering negligible hope that he is ready to resume the fitness he displayed last season.
To be precise, he suffered a 10.80 ERA in three starts.
The only time in his career where he suffered a remotely similar Spring Training was 2018.
His Spring Training ERA that year was 7.11 and he continued to struggle at the start of that year's regular season.
Catcher
One important reason for Woodruff's struggles is the departure of his favorite catcher, Manny Pina.
During his stellar 2021 season, his ERA was by far its best with Pina behind the plate.
With Pina now in Atlanta, Woodruff does not have a favorite catcher to work with.
Ian Happ
As Woodruff works with catchers who he is less comfortable with, there will be an adjustment phase the occurrence of which we want to take advantage of by placing our trust in Cub batters.
One notable Cub batter is Ian Happ who built off a strong Spring Training finale by going 3-for-4 with two doubles on Opening Day.
Justin Steele
Cub starter Justin Steele's numbers were not good on the surface last year.
But he performed excellently when he managed to avoid the long ball.
Preventing the long ball formed a focus of his offseason.
He has clearly made decisive progress in this respect, because he allowed zero home runs during Spring Training.
As a pitcher who induces a lot of ground balls -- he generated them at a 50.3 percent rate last year -- he is already stylistically inclined to keep batted balls on the ground.
Lefty
I like that Steele is a lefty today against this Brewer lineup.
Most notably, Milwaukee's biggest name in its lineup is a lefty, Christian Yelich, who hit .187 against same-handed pitchers last year.
Yelich may be in, therefore, for a second straight hitless outing.
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Friday, April 8, 2022 at 1:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park in Detroit
Ready to Pounce
One should have confidence in the White Sox lineup when it faces a left-handed starting pitcher.
Last year, the White Sox produced a .449 slugging rate against lefty starters compared to a .413 one against right-handed starters.
They certainly have the personnel to pounce again on lefties with powerful right-handed bats like Jose Abreu and Eloy Jimenez coming off very strong Spring Training performances.
Over the course of many at-bats in Spring Training, Abreu slugged .552 and Jimenez .667.
Southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez will face them for the first time as a Tiger.
In addition to facing chemistry issues with his new catcher, a starting pitcher is often nervous during his first start with a new team.
Lucas Giolito
Last year, White Sox starter Lucas Giolito suffered an 0-3, 5.16 ERA stat line in five starts against Detroit.
His vulnerability against Detroit is also evident in the strong numbers that individual Tiger batters have produced against him.
Five different ones hit at least .333 in nine or more at-bats versus Giolito.
It would be great if newcomer Javier Baez can go. He is listed as 'questionable' with an elbow injury.
For his career, Baez is slugging .909 against Giolito.
But, if necessary, plenty of other Tigers have the historical success against Giolito to step up confidently in his absence.
Parlay Verdict
The Cubs are live underdogs while both White Sox and Tiger lineups are in a great spot match-up wise.
For the above reasons, parlay the Cubs ML and the White Sox/Tigers "over."
Best Bet: Parlay Cubs ML at +144 & White Sox/Tigers Over 8 at -103 at +381 odds with Heritage
