Mets And Brewers Primed For Big Run Total In Big Apple
Milwaukee (14-13) at New York Mets (13-12)
When: 7:10 p.m. ET (FS1)
MLB Pick: First-Half 'Over'
Don't let your perception of Mets pitcher Noah Syndergaard (1-2, 5.90 ERA) deceive you. He has been one of baseball's most dominant pitchers in each of the last three years. This year, though, he is really struggling. His poor ERA is accompanied by a career-high 32.1 opposing hard contact percentage.
Syndergaard (better known as Thor) is most worth fading because of is his slider. His slider was his famous pitch, the biggest reason for which being its velocity. Of 1,826 pitchers whom Statcast has recorded as having thrown a slider, Syndergaard's ranks sixth-best in average velocity and the five pitchers whose slider averages stronger velocity threw it way less often than he did. This year, his average slider velocity is down from 92.54 mph last year to 89.17 mph. It features less movement and he frequently leaves it in hittable locations around the middle of the plate.
The biggest reason for his slider struggles is probably mechanical. Typically, his slider's vertical and horizontal release points are fairly consistent from game to game. This year, though, his slider's release points are all over the place. He is struggling to find a consistent delivery for his slider.
Thor's slider has been important to his overall success. It's one of his favorite pitches based on frequency. It's one of his favorite whiff pitches. He loves to lean on it when opposing runners enter scoring position. And, it's been his most effective pitch based on opposing BA and opposing slugging. This year, though, his slider is yielding career-worst numbers in both categories. The thing is: he relies on his slider so heavily that he's still throwing it a good amount in every outing, whereas the frequency rate of some of his other pitches ranges in game to game from very often to rare.
Opponents have accrued four or five runs against Thor in four of his five outings. The Brewers can level Thor by exploiting his slider and by continuing to be one of the better teams against the high-velocity (95-100 mph) fastball.
Watch out for Travis Shaw, who is 2-for-5 with a homer in his career against an improved version of Thor. Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain each broke a slump by going combined 4-for-9 (.444) with a double last night and they are always dangerous.
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The struggles of young Milwaukee starter Brandon Woodruff (2-1, 5.81 ERA) are less surprising considering the fact that it wasn't even certain during Spring Training that he would land a spot in the starting rotation. He has conceded four or five runs against each of his opponents that wasn't St. Louis.
Woodruff's biggest issue is location. He frequently leaves his pitches in hittable parts of the plate, around the middle. As a result, there is an abnormally high disparity (30.4%) between the low swing rate of opponents and their high contact rate. This disparity indicates that batters are able to be selective and wait for a good pitch to hit. In the same vein, Woodruff's strong velocity works against him. His fastball averages over 95 mph. The harder one throws a fastball, the less effort an opposing batter has to invest in his swing in order to launch it in the other direction when he makes contact.
In some games, Woodruff's fastball is working for him and he's able to survive its poor location. But in just about every game, one pitch or another is more hittable. He doesn't throw his fastball even half the time, so it's important for him to be more consistent with other pitches in his arsenal even when his fastball is effective.
Woodruff is really struggling against lefties, yielding a .588 opposing slugging rate compared to .327 against righties. Part of the problem is that he lacks an effective change-up with which to disarm them. This disparity is problematic because many of New York's top hitters are left-handed. Robinson Cano's OPS (on-base plus slugging; average is .720) is currently .898, Michael Conforto's is 1.103 and Jeff McNeil's is 1.049.
Milwaukee (14-13) at New York Mets (13-12)
When: 7:10 p.m. ET (FS1)
MLB Pick: First-Half 'Over'
Don't let your perception of Mets pitcher Noah Syndergaard (1-2, 5.90 ERA) deceive you. He has been one of baseball's most dominant pitchers in each of the last three years. This year, though, he is really struggling. His poor ERA is accompanied by a career-high 32.1 opposing hard contact percentage.
Syndergaard (better known as Thor) is most worth fading because of is his slider. His slider was his famous pitch, the biggest reason for which being its velocity. Of 1,826 pitchers whom Statcast has recorded as having thrown a slider, Syndergaard's ranks sixth-best in average velocity and the five pitchers whose slider averages stronger velocity threw it way less often than he did. This year, his average slider velocity is down from 92.54 mph last year to 89.17 mph. It features less movement and he frequently leaves it in hittable locations around the middle of the plate.
The biggest reason for his slider struggles is probably mechanical. Typically, his slider's vertical and horizontal release points are fairly consistent from game to game. This year, though, his slider's release points are all over the place. He is struggling to find a consistent delivery for his slider.
Thor's slider has been important to his overall success. It's one of his favorite pitches based on frequency. It's one of his favorite whiff pitches. He loves to lean on it when opposing runners enter scoring position. And, it's been his most effective pitch based on opposing BA and opposing slugging. This year, though, his slider is yielding career-worst numbers in both categories. The thing is: he relies on his slider so heavily that he's still throwing it a good amount in every outing, whereas the frequency rate of some of his other pitches ranges in game to game from very often to rare.
Opponents have accrued four or five runs against Thor in four of his five outings. The Brewers can level Thor by exploiting his slider and by continuing to be one of the better teams against the high-velocity (95-100 mph) fastball.
Watch out for Travis Shaw, who is 2-for-5 with a homer in his career against an improved version of Thor. Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain each broke a slump by going combined 4-for-9 (.444) with a double last night and they are always dangerous.
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The struggles of young Milwaukee starter Brandon Woodruff (2-1, 5.81 ERA) are less surprising considering the fact that it wasn't even certain during Spring Training that he would land a spot in the starting rotation. He has conceded four or five runs against each of his opponents that wasn't St. Louis.
Woodruff's biggest issue is location. He frequently leaves his pitches in hittable parts of the plate, around the middle. As a result, there is an abnormally high disparity (30.4%) between the low swing rate of opponents and their high contact rate. This disparity indicates that batters are able to be selective and wait for a good pitch to hit. In the same vein, Woodruff's strong velocity works against him. His fastball averages over 95 mph. The harder one throws a fastball, the less effort an opposing batter has to invest in his swing in order to launch it in the other direction when he makes contact.
In some games, Woodruff's fastball is working for him and he's able to survive its poor location. But in just about every game, one pitch or another is more hittable. He doesn't throw his fastball even half the time, so it's important for him to be more consistent with other pitches in his arsenal even when his fastball is effective.
Woodruff is really struggling against lefties, yielding a .588 opposing slugging rate compared to .327 against righties. Part of the problem is that he lacks an effective change-up with which to disarm them. This disparity is problematic because many of New York's top hitters are left-handed. Robinson Cano's OPS (on-base plus slugging; average is .720) is currently .898, Michael Conforto's is 1.103 and Jeff McNeil's is 1.049.
