Brewers And Cardinals Cook Up "Over" In Monday Series Opener
Milwaukee at St. Louis
When: 7:45 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: First-Five Over
In three starts from July 23 to August 2, Milwaukee's Zach Davies (8-5, 3.74 ERA) went 0-3, allowing 17 earned runs in 13 innings. This span brought his second-half ERA to 6.23. After his last start, he hit the injured list because of his back. He didn't have a rehab assignment but his bullpen sessions went well enough. After the extended time to himself Davies is in a bad spot historically: in his career off 6+ days' rest, he's 2-8 with a 5.12 ERA.
Velocity is not something that Davies is known for. He relies primarily on his sinker, throwing it 56 percent of the time. The only other pitch that he throws with more than 11 percent frequency is his change-up, at 28.5 percent. Both pitches average fewer than 90 mph.
Instead, Davies leans on location and movement. Both pitches have heavy arm-side motion that makes them more elusive. During Davies' rough three-game stretch, it was especially his change-up that let him down as opponents hit .357 against it, compared to .210 before this stretch. While it lost a little movement, the biggest difference with his change-up was, as evidenced by heat maps, a much more concentrated tendency to throw near the middle parts of the plate. Before his rough stretch, Davies did a much better job of throwing low and of just barely missing the plate.
He'll need to overcome an extended time off in order to rediscover his change-up's positive locational tendencies. Besides his bad history off six days' rest, I also dislike him because Cardinal batters have had his number. In 120 at-bats against him, they hit .300 and slug .492. Marcell Ozuna, for example, is 7-for-18 (.389) with a double.
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Dakota Hudson (11-6, 3.82) is coming off two respectable outings, although both were against losing teams -- one being Kansas City and the second being a Pittsburgh team that was mired in a massive slump and losing streak. Before this two-game stretch, he was 0-2, allowing eight runs in two starts against winning teams Oakland and Houston.
In general, Hudson's ERA may make him seem decent. But to an even more pronounced fashion than is the case with Davies, his FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) tells a more negative and more honest story. Namely, he's benefitted from stranding runners at an unsustainable because well above-average rate, he's walking over four batters per nine innings while showing susceptibility to the home run ball, and he's allowing hard contact at a 41.1 percent rate. His 5.21 FIP shows how poorly his individual performance has truly been.
One of Hudson's weaknesses is that he doesn't possess any real weapons against left-handed batters. Typically, a pitcher leans on a change-of-pace pitch like a curveball or change-up against them. At best, Hudson throws his change-up only two percent of the time. His favorite pitch facing lefties is the sinker. Lefties see it with 40 percent frequency and hit .414 and slug .731 against it.
His sinker is so bad against lefties because of its location. He only throws it for a strike 21 percent of the time, which represents a lower rate than against righties. When it does land for a strike, he concentrates its placement around the middle parts of the plate.
Lefties hit .307 and slug .531 against Hudson. This stat is crucial because Milwaukee's lineup is loaded with solid lefties like 2018 NL MVP Christian Yelich and many of the team's top sluggers like Mike Moustakas and Eric Thames. Though a righty, Keston Hiura hits .329 and slugs .652 against righties. Given his struggles against lefties, Milwaukee has scored nine earned runs in Hudson's two starts against it.
Milwaukee at St. Louis
When: 7:45 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: First-Five Over
In three starts from July 23 to August 2, Milwaukee's Zach Davies (8-5, 3.74 ERA) went 0-3, allowing 17 earned runs in 13 innings. This span brought his second-half ERA to 6.23. After his last start, he hit the injured list because of his back. He didn't have a rehab assignment but his bullpen sessions went well enough. After the extended time to himself Davies is in a bad spot historically: in his career off 6+ days' rest, he's 2-8 with a 5.12 ERA.
Velocity is not something that Davies is known for. He relies primarily on his sinker, throwing it 56 percent of the time. The only other pitch that he throws with more than 11 percent frequency is his change-up, at 28.5 percent. Both pitches average fewer than 90 mph.
Instead, Davies leans on location and movement. Both pitches have heavy arm-side motion that makes them more elusive. During Davies' rough three-game stretch, it was especially his change-up that let him down as opponents hit .357 against it, compared to .210 before this stretch. While it lost a little movement, the biggest difference with his change-up was, as evidenced by heat maps, a much more concentrated tendency to throw near the middle parts of the plate. Before his rough stretch, Davies did a much better job of throwing low and of just barely missing the plate.
He'll need to overcome an extended time off in order to rediscover his change-up's positive locational tendencies. Besides his bad history off six days' rest, I also dislike him because Cardinal batters have had his number. In 120 at-bats against him, they hit .300 and slug .492. Marcell Ozuna, for example, is 7-for-18 (.389) with a double.
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Dakota Hudson (11-6, 3.82) is coming off two respectable outings, although both were against losing teams -- one being Kansas City and the second being a Pittsburgh team that was mired in a massive slump and losing streak. Before this two-game stretch, he was 0-2, allowing eight runs in two starts against winning teams Oakland and Houston.
In general, Hudson's ERA may make him seem decent. But to an even more pronounced fashion than is the case with Davies, his FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) tells a more negative and more honest story. Namely, he's benefitted from stranding runners at an unsustainable because well above-average rate, he's walking over four batters per nine innings while showing susceptibility to the home run ball, and he's allowing hard contact at a 41.1 percent rate. His 5.21 FIP shows how poorly his individual performance has truly been.
One of Hudson's weaknesses is that he doesn't possess any real weapons against left-handed batters. Typically, a pitcher leans on a change-of-pace pitch like a curveball or change-up against them. At best, Hudson throws his change-up only two percent of the time. His favorite pitch facing lefties is the sinker. Lefties see it with 40 percent frequency and hit .414 and slug .731 against it.
His sinker is so bad against lefties because of its location. He only throws it for a strike 21 percent of the time, which represents a lower rate than against righties. When it does land for a strike, he concentrates its placement around the middle parts of the plate.
Lefties hit .307 and slug .531 against Hudson. This stat is crucial because Milwaukee's lineup is loaded with solid lefties like 2018 NL MVP Christian Yelich and many of the team's top sluggers like Mike Moustakas and Eric Thames. Though a righty, Keston Hiura hits .329 and slugs .652 against righties. Given his struggles against lefties, Milwaukee has scored nine earned runs in Hudson's two starts against it.
hope all is well friend
